Is the flu hurting more than Covid this year? The first to raise the alarm was the Councilor for Welfare of the Lombardy Region, Guido Bertolaso: “It worries us and commits us more, we are certainly talking about the flu and not about Covid”. Looking at the numbers at the moment, however, Covid seems even more dangerous for the elderly and frail: in the last week there have been over 80 deaths per day on average: basically 2500 per month. Higher numbers than a normal seasonal flu which in these days is however returning to hit hard after two years of “pause” thanks to the anti-contagion measures for Covid: today there are 10 Italians out of a thousand in bed with fever and cold
The comparison between flu and Covid
In the heaviest seasons there are about 8-10 thousand deaths due to the flu virus in 6-8 months: the ISS monitoring starts in fact from mid-October and ends at the end of April and the ISS always estimates that the lethality rate of the seasonal flu (i.e. the ratio between total deaths and infected people) is less than one per thousand (about 0.1 percent). On average, the influenza virus affects between 5 and 15% of the adult population with an incidence rising to 20-30% in children. This year, however, the flu – after causing damage in the southern hemisphere – began to make itself felt early: today, according to the latest ISS bulletin, there are 9.5 cases per thousand assisted with the cases having doubled in 14 days and with children under 5 among the most affected (29.6 cases per thousand). And the Covid? In the last week there have been 580 deaths and we are only on the eve of winter: the current rate is still slightly higher than that of a heavy flu. If we then take into consideration all the victims of Omicron, the very contagious but less lethal variant that has been raging since January 2022, then the count in 10 months is 35,000 deaths from Covid
The risk of a perfect storm for hospitals
In reality, what worries experts and observers is precisely the combination of the two viruses which could become a deadly mix as early as December when the peak of infections is expected for both Covid – the RT is back above the epidemic threshold at 1.08 – and for the flu. “The predictable simultaneity of the flu peak with the Covid peak must be carefully evaluated because the impact on the health service could be considerable”, explained the epidemiologist Pier Luigi Lopalco, professor of hygiene at the University of Salento. In short, the risk is that of a perfect storm for hospitals in the winter months. The data coming from the USA confirms the particular virulence of the flu season this year. Here, in just over a month, according to the periodic survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 6.2 million Americans contracted the infection, 53,000 hospitalized and 2,900 died. Overall, 11.3 people out of 100,000 ended up in hospital with the flu last week, the highest rate recorded since 2010-2011. Those over-65 who need hospitalization are above all (25.9 cases per 100 thousand) followed by children under the age of 4 (20.7).
Vaccination campaigns still in slow motion
The main defense is always vaccines. However, the vaccination campaign is the great weak point in this third autumn dealing with Covid given that so far it has been a flop: the doses for the flu have been distributed for a few weeks but the vaccines for Covid have been available for months and the the rhythm of administrations is still very low with around 25,000 injections per day. And so at the moment only a quarter of the over 60s (26%) – the audience to which the fourth dose is aimed – has already been immunized against Covid with the new bivalent vaccines. While a survey conducted by Ipsos on a representative sample of 250 adults over the age of 65 between 14 October and 15 November 2022, it emerged that only 31% of Italians over 65 underwent the vaccination anti-flu. A result that is really too low in view of the winter now upon us and for this reason the Minister of Health Horace Schillaci has put in place a new communication campaign to encourage vaccinations of Covid and flu of the over 60s and frail which should start in these days.