Home Health Covid: Cnr, no booster in March peak of hospitalized – Health

Covid: Cnr, no booster in March peak of hospitalized – Health

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(ANSA) – ROME, DEC 30 – The booster effect of vaccinations will have a strong push on the cut in hospitalizations in Italy. If the third dose is not used, in fact, the risk is that between the end of February and the beginning of March, the quota of 50,000 hospitalized every 24 hours will be exceeded, compared to just under 25,000 if the current daily rhythm is maintained. of third doses administered. To say this is a projection of the physicist Corrado Spinella, director of the Department of Physical Sciences and Technologies of Matter at the National Research Council, on the basis of the evolutions of the differential calculus developed by him and by the team of his department, published in Scientific Reports , is that it has been updated taking into account the data on the reduction of vaccine efficacy.
“After just under 5-6 months from the second administration, vaccines reduce their effectiveness by more or less by 50% – explains Spinella – in the model we have developed in Cnr it is possible to estimate the impact of the loss of immunization in the vaccinated population. as a function of the distance from the second dose. Well, what we have observed is that the loss of efficacy of immunization in vaccinated people began to manifest its effects in the increase in the number of infections already at the end of October “. “The triggering of the wave we are experiencing in this period is therefore dominated by this phenomenon which fortunately is contrasted by the progressive increase in the number of third dose administrations. Thanks to the booster doses we are managing to contain the spread of the contagion – he adds – We have estimated that without booster doses the number of hospitalized patients will grow much more rapidly, reaching a peak about twice as high as we expect to reach while maintaining the current pace of vaccination with the third dose “.
The booster effect can also be seen on the number of circulating positives: the acceleration of the vaccination campaign could lead to a peak of about one and a half million people with Sars Cov-2 virus (between tested and not, including asymptomatic ) between February and March, compared to about 3,500,000 infected in the event that, in the darkest scenario, the vaccination campaign of the third dose is not proceeded or interrupted.

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