An algorithm called “Variant-Finder”, developed by Cnr, gives a worrying picture of the increase in cases of Covid: in the regions where the infections are growing strongly, between 40 and 50% of the new infections would be attributed to the variants. “In the Regions where there has been a rapid increase in cases such as Abruzzo, Market, Tuscany e Umbria, as well as in the autonomous provinces of Trento e Bolzano, the variants of Sars-Cov-2 would already be, according to the simulations on the trend of hospitalized patients, between 40 and 50% of the total positives. This trend is on the rise. ”To say it is the physique Corrado Spinella, director of the Department of Physical Sciences and Technologies of Matter of the Cnr.
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Spinella reports the data of a simulation based on an algorithm that he defines as “Variant-finder” of Sars-Cov-2, developed by his team of the National Research Council and which updates the calculation system they created to monitor the evolution of the disease. Spinella stresses that “in Abruzzo, within a month from today, if there were no containment measures, the cases of the variant could reach 90%” and that “without other containment measures of Sars-Cov- 2, in the Regions that are already found to have at least 50% of the virus, the variant with greater contagiousness will almost completely replace the ‘standard’ version within a month and a half from today. So, at the end of March ” .
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From the differential calculus, according to the physicist, it emerges that “the variants appeared on a very small fraction of positives already in the first days of December 2020”. Always referring to the presence of the variants that can be seen from the curves created thanks to the algorithm, Spinella underlines: “Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy are starting to show an increase in hospitalized cases due to the presence of the variants with greater transmissibility”.
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