Home » Covid: infections in the world are reduced. Is the peak behind?

Covid: infections in the world are reduced. Is the peak behind?

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ALMOST 1.5 million cases last December 10th. Just under 630 thousand, on the first day of April. Thanks to the increase in vaccinations, in some countries much faster than in Italy, infections from Sars-CoV-2 in the world have long been traveling below the quota of one million cases per day. In the last month, the curve appears to be growing slightly: the lowest point of 2021 dates back to February 21, with 314,267 new people infected. But it is still far from the numbers recorded at the turn of the end of 2020 and the beginning of the new year. A sign that the growing share of people already infected and the start of prophylaxis campaigns are helping to reduce both infections – from which at least mRna vaccines largely protect – and deaths. Could this be enough to say that the global peak is now behind us?

Covid: the weaknesses of the virus discovered: they will be used for new vaccines

by Noemi Penna


There are those who, in Eastern countries, have already abandoned the mask. And those who, like the Italians and the French, are still forced to respect severe restrictions on personal freedom. The pandemic scenario around the world is profoundly heterogeneous. But trying to look at the situation from the outside, net of territorial differences, the impression is that the worst is behind us. Chances are good, but it’s too early to let our guard down. This is the picture that emerges from an analysis published in the magazine Nature, which took stock of the progress of the pandemic by consulting a pool of experts on a global level. “Initial evidence is encouraging, but variants need to be kept under control: some may be able to evade vaccine immunity,” he says. Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. The differences between the different areas of the planet are also too profound: a Mexican citizen today cannot feel as safe as a Chinese peer. “There are areas of the world where the share of vaccinated people is too low: these places are still very vulnerable,” adds the expert.

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English, Brazilian, South African: the Covid variants that worry


Covid-19: where is the pandemic?

In areas where there is a drastic drop in cases, the result was achieved with a synergistic action: strict restriction measures (including the closure of schools) accompanied by a massive vaccination campaign. In this way it was possible to reduce the number of infections and at the same time increase the share of protected people at least for the next few months (waiting to understand how long the immunity guaranteed by vaccines lasts). However, the situation is not the same in all countries. If in India 1 in 5 people already have antibodies against Sars-CoV-2, the share in Europe (5 percent) and in countries bordering the Pacific (2 percent) is much lower. Consequently, experts warn, the reopening of borders and the “exchange” between people of different nations risks posing a threat to those states that have so far been less affected or further behind in the mass vaccination campaign. To this it should be added that there is no reliable information from many countries. “If the numbers of the nations of sub-Saharan Africa were similar to those of India, then yes we could say that we are beyond the peak”, he clarifies Joseph Lewnard, an epidemiologist at the University of California. The African scenario is the least clear. And, consequently, also the less reassuring one, given the high number of inhabitants and the population density of the larger centers.

Made with Flourish

Then there are two aspects not yet definitively clarified: the duration of immunity (both for those who have fallen ill and for those who have only been vaccinated) and the ability of variants to “escape” to the meshes of the immune system. Information is constantly evolving. At the moment, the most frightening is the South African variant, with respect to which mRna vaccines appear to have reduced neutralizing activity. Little widespread in Europe, where the English one prevails, this form of the virus could however contribute to raising the numbers by circulating precisely in the African continent, where information about vaccination coverage rates are rather incomplete. Hence also the warning launched by the People’s Vaccine Alliance. “Without a mass vaccination campaign on a global level, in a short time the variants of Covid-19 are destined to take over, greatly extending the time needed to defeat the pandemic and dramatically increasing the number of infections and victims” . According to 9 out of 10 epidemiologists among those surveyed, if vaccination coverage is not increased, vaccine-resistant variants of the virus could arise in many countries. “We have a year to not undermine the effectiveness of the first generation vaccines developed and contain the mutations of the virus”.

Made with Flourish

In our country, the third wave is still underway, but it has in all probability already peaked. The latest monitoring by the Gimbe Foundation highlights a slowdown in new infections and hospitalizations. As usual, however, it will still take several weeks for the same trend in the number of deaths to occur. The pressure on hospitals also remains high. Hence the government’s decision not to relax the restriction measures (at least) for the entire month of April. A choice that almost the entire scientific community agrees. Whose thinking is summed up in the words of Andrea Crisanti, director of the laboratory of microbiology and virology of the hospital of Padua, at “Un Giorno da Pecora”. “We will emerge from the emergency through several phases. First the drop in lethality will come, then we will see that the waves will be there continuously but they will be lower and lower, with maximum peaks of 3 thousand infections. It could happen around September or October, the situation should stabilize, unless there are variations ”.

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