Home » Covid variants like waves in the water, the experts: pandemics will be intermittent

Covid variants like waves in the water, the experts: pandemics will be intermittent

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Covid variants like waves in the water, the experts: pandemics will be intermittent

In the near future we will have to proceed closely with the new Covid variants, walk parallel to them and observe them. Will a future of intermittent pandemics be what awaits us? The question is answered in a study conducted by a group of scientists from Imperial College London and published in Nature Communications. The team analyzed and estimated the dynamics of the Omicron wave from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022, using data from the React-1 study, a series of cross-sectional surveys that assess the prevalence of Sars-CoV-2 infection. in England.

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Variants such as waves in the water

The image is that of waves in the water created by a stone: they propagate concentric and intermittent. The thinking of scientists dealing with the observation of Covid variants can be summarized in this way: the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic was characterized “by the regular emergence of variants”. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure “favors variants that are better able to evade neutralizing antibodies.” Notably, “the Omicron variant showed a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide.” Thus, “assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitude could become the new normal.”

What lies behind the peaks in sequence

But how did these conclusions come about? The authors of the research estimated an initial peak in the national prevalence of Omicron of 6.89% (5.34% -10.61%) concentrated in January 2022, followed by a resurgence of Sars-CoV-2 infections when the Omicron sub-lineage more transmissible, i.e. BA.2, has replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1.
Then came February, and in that case the scientists observed that the prevalence of Omicron 2 (BA.2) increased steadily, while the prevalence of non-BA.2 Omicron decreased. They therefore believed that, “as the cumulative incidence and vaccination coverage continue to increase, the virus will compete with a diverse and complex immune landscape within the human population. Consequently, the evolutionary dynamics of the virus will be dominated by ‘immune evasion “.

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“A trend that will continue”

The fact is that variants of concern (Vocs) continue to emerge almost regularly. During the first two years of the Covid pandemic, therefore, according to the London researchers “there is no reason to believe that this trend will not continue”. And they remember that “other respiratory infections such as the flu bring annual epidemics due to the emergence of new strains able to better navigate the immune landscape”.
“If we see a similar trend for Sars-CoV-2, then the intermittent waves of infection of a magnitude close to Omicron are within the limits of possibility,” they add. Continuous surveillance, vaccine boosters and vaccine updates, the authors stress, “will be crucial to minimize the harmful effects of this new public health paradigm.” And “greater equity in accessing vaccines globally can help reduce the rate of occurrence of these harmful variants.”

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Lo Palco: “Intermittent epidemics in the short term”

L’epidemiologo Pier Luigi Lopalco he speaks of a “very likely scenario, especially in the short term”. The scenario is that of “intermittent pandemics”, and according to him we will have to live with them at least in the next three to four years. “Specifying:” We will have to see what the evolution will be when the entire world population has strengthened its resistance to the virus “.
“We saw it with Omicron: if the impact was not that of the Wuhan variant it is only because we were vaccinated – says Lopalco -. The baggage of our immunological memory will ensure that, even in the face of a new variant , we will have partial protection from the virus. But I think it is difficult for a completely different variant to emerge, capable of evading our immune system to a level that behaves like a pandemic “.

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The vaccine remains for the most fragile

So will we have to get vaccinated again in the next two or three years? According to the epidemiologist “this is certainly necessary for the weakest categories”, because “they completely lose their immune memory and are susceptible to serious diseases”.
Of course, Lopalco reflects “the trend this virus is creating is unprecedented: it is the first time that we are seeing a human coronavirus“. And speaking of the fact that a Coronavirus passed from an animal to man has become endemic, the expert recalls: “These leaps of species in the past have already occurred, even 2 thousand years ago, and probably at that time caused pandemics to then evolve into what are human coronaviruses, such as colds “.

Jumps of species, slow evolution

Certainly, Lopalco points out, “the evolutions in that direction happen slowly”. He then he shifts the emphasis on this question: “Let’s ask ourselves why in recent years we have witnessed various leaps of species: this is the worrying thing”. “We can look for the answer in anthropization, in deforestation, in the environmental factors that have brought humans and wild animals closer and closer – he concludes -. It is difficult to say if a Sars coronavirus may emerge tomorrow 3. We know that we must observe why they are more and more frequent. Now there is Centaurus, who has started to circulate and we cannot know what his behavior will be. We certainly cannot not live with it “.

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WHO: “After the heat, the increase in infections”

Even the WHO, with its latest pronouncement, embraces the thesis of the researchers of Imperial College London. The new pandemic wave, according to the World Health Organization, will come when the heat ends. We will have a new “increase in infections, hospitalizations and deaths related to Covid”.
Therefore, the WHO continues, it is now necessary to put in place measures to reduce the risks: “The admissions will increase in the autumn and winter months with the reopening of schools, people returning from holidays and the shift of socialization indoors with the arrival of colder weather “.

Continuous waves of infection

The WHO document also recommends preventing the suffering of health services by hiring new staff, albeit with flexible forms. And he highlights: “There are many sub-lineages of the Omicron variant, most notably BA.5 which is the most transmissible to date. We have been constantly saying that this virus will continue to evolve and we must be ready.”
“We will see continuous waves of infection – concludes the WHO – but we need not to see continuous waves of hospitalization and death. We have the tools to save lives: vaccines, tests, therapies and public health tools. Let’s use them”.

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