Home » Delta variant doubles the risks of serious illness and hospitalization, but double dose of vaccine protects

Delta variant doubles the risks of serious illness and hospitalization, but double dose of vaccine protects

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The Delta variant of Sars-CoV-2 doubles the risk of hospitalization for Covid-19 compared to the Alpha variant. This is confirmed by a new British study, the largest to date, which analyzed more than 40,000 cases in Great Britain between March 29 and May 23.

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Delta variant, higher risks

The likelihood of needing emergency visits or hospitalization was also 1.5 times greater for people infected with Delta than for those with Alpha. The results of the work suggest that the epidemic, caused by this variant, now prevalent in Europe, “may lead to a greater burden on health services” than that caused by the Alpha mutant, now ousted from its dominant position, “particularly in unvaccinated people and other vulnerable populations’. This is the alarm raised by the researchers, authors of the study, who especially warn about the increased risk of hospitalization among unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people, who make up the majority of the cases examined.


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The casuistry

The Delta variant was first reported in India in December 2020, and early studies had quickly found that it is up to 50% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, first identified in Kent, UK. And now the research confirms a risk of hospitalization for those infected with Delta which is about double that of patients infected with “Alpha”. The possibility of needing hospital assistance or hospitalization within 14 days of infection is also one and a half times greater than with the Alpha variant (1.45 times).

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I study

The new study is based on cases “confirmed by whole genome sequencing, which is the most accurate way to determine the viral variant.” His conclusions are in line with previous results, for example from a preliminary research conducted in Scotland, which had already reported a doubling of the risk of hospitalization and proposed the hypothesis that the Delta variant was associated with a more serious disease.

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Get vaccinated

The authors of the research launch an appeal for vaccination. “Most of the cases included in the analysis were unvaccinated – specifies Gavi Dabrera, of the National Infection Service, Public Health England (Phe), one of the lead authors of the study – We already know that vaccination offers excellent protection against Delta and as this variant accounts for over 98% of Covid cases in the UK, it is imperative that those who have not received two doses of the vaccine do so as soon as possible. In any case, it is important in case of symptoms to stay at home and take a tampon as soon as possible ». During the study period, there were a total of 34,656 cases of the Alpha variant (80%) and 8,682 cases of the Delta (20%). But the proportion of Delta cases in England has been growing to account for about two-thirds of new cases in the week starting May 17, 2021 (65%, 3,973 / 6,090), overtaking Alfa. About one in 50 patients was hospitalized within 14 days of the first positive test (2.2% of Alpha cases, 2.3% of Deltas). And, taking into account all the factors known to influence susceptibility to severe Covid, a more than doubled risk of hospitalization with the Delta variant (2.26 times higher) was calculated. In this study, only 1.8% of cases (with both variants) received the double dose of the vaccine; 74%, on the other hand, were not vaccinated and 24% had received only one dose. The authors note that it is therefore not possible to draw statistically significant conclusions about how the risk of hospitalization differs among vaccinated people who subsequently develop Alpha and Delta infections. The results of this study therefore speak mainly to the risk of hospitalization for those who are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. “Our analysis shows that, in the absence of vaccination, any Delta epidemic will impose a greater burden on health care than an Alpha epidemic,” concludes Anne Presanis, senior statistician at Cambridge University and one of the study’s lead authors. , which was led by researchers from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge and funded by UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, the UK Government’s Department of Health and Social Care and National Institute for Health Research.

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