According to analysts and insiders, the real challenge will be in the “grounding” of the projects, that is to say in the ability to make the best use of resources without wasting energy between bureaucracy and postponements. Around National recovery and resilience plan there is great expectation, in the belief that not only public funds will be able to get us out of the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic, but also in the hope of channeling the Italian economy along a growth path at a faster pace than those seen in the last lustrums.
According to the analyzes of Anitec-Assinform, the market for digital goods and services closed 2020 at -0.6% compared to 2019 (reaching 71.5 billion euros), which sounds like a success, given the economic context in which the performance matured. Network services suffered (-6.4%) and the software component (-2.3%), while spending on devices and systems (+ 1.3%), the ICT services market went against the trend. (+ 3.3%), content and digital advertising (+3.6). 2020 has accentuated the gap in the adoption of digital technologies between medium and small companies and large organizations, and between different geographic areas, with the North-West increasingly the center of gravity of the sector.
“2020 was a completely exceptional year. A year that, due to its transformative impact, its impact on people and businesses, has condensed into twelve months changes that occur in at least five years – is the analysis of Marco Gay, president of the Confindustria association which brings together the main ICT companies -. The digital market held up, outperforming the economy as a whole. Now, thanks to the PNRR, new scenarios are opening up. Despite the uncertainties, it is legitimate to look with optimism in the coming months and years. The pandemic has opened new perspectives beyond the emergency and normality is taking new forms “.
According to Gay, the realization of the PNRR will be decisive for the digital transformation to be strengthened and allow for transform the growing recoveryto. “About 50 billion euros have been allocated to the digitization. We foresee positive scenarios for the digital sector which, in 2024, could reach almost 95 billion euros “.
The horizon clears up
Anitec-Assinform estimates that if all the funds envisaged by the NRP for digital are used already in 2021, the market could close the year with a volume of 77.6 billion euros, against the 74 billion forecast based on physiological growth alone . This would bring the growth of the digital market in 2021 to8,5% compared to a forecast of 3.5% estimated without the contribution of public funds. The impact in subsequent years fluctuates between 4.5% and 0.6% higher on the growth rate of the baseline scenario, depending on whether the funds will be used in full or 70% or 50%. In the most optimistic hypothesis of full use of the funds allocated annually, the digital market will reach close to 95 billion euros in 2024.
The sectors that will have the greatest impact from the use of the funds provided for by the NRP for digital are Public Administration, Healthcare, Industry, Telecommunications, Travel & Transportation ed Energy & Utilities.