in Italy are we on the eve of a summer wave? – breaking latest news

After Portugal, the United Kingdom and Germany (with an incidence equal to 472 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants), Covid is also raising its head in Italy. In fact, in recent days, the incidence of cases per 100 thousand inhabitants has risen in most regions with an average 222 cases per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 207 the previous week and a Rt in ascent which today touches the value of 1.28 according to the latest report of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità.

The latest bulletin also reports an increase in hospitalizations ordered (+ 19%) and intensive care (+ 6%). For the experts to provoke the new spread of the virus are the sub-variants of omicron, characterized by a high transmissibility. It would therefore be the new sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 (and the daughter BA.5.1) a tow new infections (in Italy the latest monitoring speaks of 0.4% but the figure is highly underestimated because surveillance in our country is low).

As of June 6, the curve in Italy has been rising. In Lombardy, the seven-day increase is close to 48 percent, as is also happening in other regions. The upward push is very recent: on Friday the new positives in Milan (1,095) were almost five times more than on Friday the week before (261) and hospitalizations are also slightly increasing. According to the latest ECDC report, the BA.4 and BA.5 variants will become dominant across the European Union due to their growth advantage.

What’s going on

In recent weeks there has been a progressiveness in reopening, in the abandonment of masks and a search for greater normality but no particular events have been recorded such as the farewell of the masks or the beginning of schools or large gatherings that had in part justified other waves. “It is clear that new, more contagious variants such as Omicron 5. This is combined with the decline in the effectiveness of vaccines over time and the lower immunity induced by previous infections, at least on infections, with consequent reinfections, among other things underestimated because many people use “do-it-yourself” tampons without record their positivity»Says the virologist Fabrizio Pregliascomedical director of the Galeazzi Institute in Milan.

The reinfections

In Italy we talk about the 6.3% of reinfections but it is an underestimated fact not only because not all those who have symptoms choose to swab, but also because many people are asymptomatic and do not realize they have been infected.

Le mutations on the spike protein of the BA.5 and BA.4 variants yield the virus most capable of circumventing vaccine-induced immunity
. “And this is why we are more likely to contract Covid-19 twice today than four months ago,” he says. Mansoor Amiji, professor in the Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences at Northeastern University, in the United States. “If you are infected with Omicron 2, this does not prevent you from being infected with BA-4 or BA-5He adds Neil Maniar, professor in the department of health sciences in the same university. “It doesn’t mean we have to fear reinfection, but it does mean we have to keep in mind that just because you’ve had Covid once, it doesn’t mean you won’t have it again within a month or two months or three months, because there are these different sub-variants. that are circulating ».

Drop in immunity

In Sud Africa, BA.4 and BA.5 were responsible for a second wave of Omicron infections that began in early May, which now appears to have flattened out. However, we know that South Africa, like Portugal, is another country hard hit by the new wave despite the very high rate of vaccinationswas not hit by Omicron 2 as happened in the UK and also in Italy. This situation gave scientists hope that the high levels of immunity from the recent BA.2 infection and booster vaccines might be sufficient to prevent infection from the new variants. However with the decline in immunity from the third dose of the vaccine in most population groups and the fourth dose offered only to the most frail are elements that they do not necessarily guarantee protection. Similarly, a recent infection with BA.1 or BA.2 does not necessarily guarantee protection from BA.4 or BA.5. According to research published in Science On Tuesday, natural infection with Omicron does not produce a strong immune response, regardless of whether the scientists look for antibodies or T cells, which means people who have already recovered from an Omicron infection can quickly become reinfected. Hybrid immunity, i.e. vaccine-induced and infection-induced, offers better protection and this should make new infections less severe.

A new summer wave?

To understand if we are facing a new wave a longer observation period is required and check the trend of the contagion curve. In Italy, compared to other European countries, the hot climate can help mitigate the risks because less time is spent indoors, where most of the infections via aerosols occur. “However, the very beginning of the holidays, the less use of masks and the drop in vaccine protection could push a new wave of summer infections in Italy too, early with that expectation in the fall, which will most likely still supplant the flu epidemic. I expect up to 100,000 infections a day detected by the bulletinsbut hopefully without serious consequences on hospitalizations since most of the people are vaccinated or have been infected, and have acquired a certain immunity “warns Pregliasco:”The mathematical models show us a growing trend for the next 3-4 weeks»

Contagion and disease

Contagion does not necessarily mean disease. And also with regard to the danger of BA.5 symptoms and severity of infection are similar to those of BA.2according to what emerges from the real world thanks to information from South Africa, which is the country where more cases of the new variant have been registered so far. In most cases it manifests itself as a cold, sore throat, runny nose, sometimes with mild fever and joint pain. «In a population like the Italian one, where the component of the elderly and the frail is by no means negligible, we must remain very vigilant because a new wave could still bring back the health services, now fortunately no longer dedicated only to Covid, in an emergency.
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