After six weeks of decline, in Italy the epidemiological curves start to rise again. The infections from Covid-19 are almost 30,000 more than seven days ago. The victims also rise by 73 units. These are the data that emerge from the analysis of the bulletin of the Ministry of Health of the week 6-12 June 2022. The rise in cases would also confirm the spread of BA.5 in Italy, the new sub-variant of Omicron much more contagious than the previous sisters.
Meanwhile, the road map for the farewell to anti Covid restrictions is proceeding. Tomorrow June 15the vaccination obligation for over 50s, school workers and law enforcement agencies will lapse. Stop also to masks indoors, but there is still discussion about a possible extension of the obligation on means of transport.
The virus, however, continues to circulate and hospitalizations and intensive therapies are starting to rise again. Is there a risk of a tidal wave in the summer? And what autumn will it be? We talked about it with Fabrizio Pregliasco, medical director of the Irccs Galeazzi Orthopedic Institute in Milan. «Omicron 5 is more contagious than measles and chickenpox. Rising contagion risk in summer».
Prof. Pregliasco, after six weeks the infections start to grow again, in Lombardy + 48%. What is happening?
It is certainly a combined effect. On the one hand, the reopenings, because the virus has a better chance of catching us due to crowds and lowering of attention. This is there and must be taken into account. Then surely another determining factor is the spread of BA.5, the new sub-variant of Omicron much more contagious than the previous ones. The vaccine continues to protect against severe disease, but remains lame in avoiding infection. An increase in cases had already been recorded in South Africa, Portugal and Germany, so it was to be expected.
Is a tidal wave possible in the summer?
There will be an upside. I hope that there may be waves like a stone in a pond, with less and less heavy waves. We are in a transitional phase of the epidemic. Due to the contagiousness of Omicron 5, the unknown of an anticipation of the wave expected for the autumn season. We must prepare for the worst eventuality to be ready.
Could Omicron 5 be more dangerous than previous variants?
Omicron 5 has an R0 close to 20, is much more contagious than measles and chickenpox, but causes more or less the same type of disease as the previous sub-variants. The symptoms to look out for are always the same, fever and stuffy nose. At the first signs of a very high airway infection, take a swab.
From tomorrow stop to indoor masks. There is still debate about the obligation on means of transport. What is its position?
On the means of transport it would be necessary to keep them, because we spend a lot of time together in a close space. But it is a political choice.
Omicron 5 is spreading rapidly. What autumn will it be, fourth dose for everyone?
In the autumn we must expect a resurgence of infections, with Covid stealing the show from the flu. As for immunization, let’s not call it the fourth dose. It will be a periodic vaccination to be done in the fall, as happens with the flu. Offered to all and strongly recommended for the frail.