Home » Omicron 5, that’s why the heat didn’t slow down the new variant (and how long this wave will last)

Omicron 5, that’s why the heat didn’t slow down the new variant (and how long this wave will last)

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Omicron 5, that’s why the heat didn’t slow down the new variant (and how long this wave will last)

Since the beginning of June, contamination from Covid-19 has been steadily increasing. And this despite being used to seeing the virus recede during the summer. Winter, by its nature, is spent indoors, in places where it is certainly easier to get infected, with closed rooms and lack of ventilation. So how to explain this irrepressible seventh wave from Covid? Why isn’t the spread of the virus slowing down? The Ouest france site tries to answer the many questions. France, like other countries in the world, has loosened all forms of containment and rules and this could partly explain the rebound of the epidemic in recent months. From May 16, the mask is no longer mandatory on public transport. It was revoked on March 14 in closed places such as companies, schools, public services or shops. And so from Paris, on June 27, the emergency room doctor Patrick Pelloux warned about the need and importance of putting the mask back on.

Omicron 5, the wave that surprised (even) the experts

Public Health France (SPF) specialists also insist on the restoration of the mask in public transport and indoors. They also advise not to abandon the daily prevention rules: wash your hands well, avoid kissing, change the air regularly. And the same message was relayed by the managing director of the SCNF, Jean-Pierre Farandou, who on June 29 invited travelers to wear a mask again in stations and trains, even if not mandatory.

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Today the Omicron variant is predominant in France, as well as in Italy, particularly in its BA.4 and BA.5 forms. This factor could explain the increase in contamination over the past few weeks. The immunity conferred by vaccination, in fact, does not cover the variants that circulate in the country today. Furthermore, these variants have the distinction of being very contagious.

The heat did not stop the spread

The reason why Omicron 5 has supplanted the other sub-variants and has managed to spread so much despite the heat it is certainly linked to the spreading capacity of the virus, given that we are in the presence of a highly contagious variant. «Summer cannot do much against this characteristic, that is the hot period in which you live more outdoors – explains Fabrizio Pregliasco, epidemiologist from Milan -. The Wuhan virus had an Rt of 2, the Delta of 7 and this one of 15-17, like measles and chicken pox ». Furthermore, the extreme contagiousness of Omicron 5, as confirmed by the President of the Higher Health Council, Franco Locatelli, is also demonstrated by the ability to hit those who have already been infected. “Today we have 8.4% reinfection rates, I remember that in the period in which Delta was circulating we were at 2%”, explains the expert, underlining how the viral increase is also associated “with the lack of protection measures” .

Omicron 5, how long will it last?

As for the estimates on the duration of this new wave pushed by the Omicron 5 variant, there are conflicting opinions on the matter. There are those who believe, observing when it happened in Portugal, where the curve has risen and then dropped in just over 2 months, that by the end of July the number of cases will return to low. But there are also those who fear that the infection will go on longer with higher numbers. “Establishing how long it will last is not easy, but it is certainly not a wave that will be stopped by the heat and in the summer we will continue to have so many cases”, explains Massimo Andreoni, scientific director of the Society of Infectious Diseases.

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Although the high level of contagiousness may have reached its peak, given that the latest data provided by Gimbe begins to record a slight decline in prevalence.

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