Home » OMICRON END OF THE PANDEMIC / “This is how the war between variants works”

OMICRON END OF THE PANDEMIC / “This is how the war between variants works”

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According to the undersecretary of health Pierpaolo Sileri “New Year 2022 will be the last with Covid, we are heading towards endemic”. The Israeli scientists also say that they speak of a very contagious but not very virulent Omicron variant that could soon become dominant and wipe out the Delta, making Covid endemic and therefore similar to an flu. Second Antonio Clavenna, researcher at the Department of Public Health of the Mario Negri Institute in Milan, “We do not yet have sufficient data, but only preliminary and laboratory data to be able to affirm this, even if they seem reasonable opinions”.

When the situation stabilizes, Clavenna told us again, “then we will be able to know if the Omicron variant has eliminated the much more dangerous one like the Delta, but its greater diffusion will certainly lead to a harmful impact for hospitals”. In any case there is no need for a vaccine specifically dedicated to Omicron: “We could stabilize with an annual vaccination for the most fragile subjects with current vaccines, unless protection against more severe forms is observed to diminish over time; then yes it would be advisable to have more effective vaccines against Omicron in the shortest possible time ”.

According to many observers, thanks to the Omicron variant, Covid could soon become endemic, that is, permanent but not as deadly as we were used to.

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At the moment these observations would seem to be justified, but with caution to consider that we still have preliminary data with respect to the Omicron variant. Data currently obtained from some studies conducted mainly in the laboratory that would demonstrate how this variant is less dangerous in particular for the cells of the lung epithelium so these studies would suggest that this variant is less dangerous to health.

What about the deaths?

There are also epidemiological studies that have observed one lower percentage of hospitalizations and deaths in people who became ill with Omicron, however, in these cases they are preliminary data that need to be confirmed.

So what is the picture in which we find ourselves in this phase of the pandemic?

The picture that seems to emerge at the moment is that of a minor danger in which the opinions regarding a possible development in the endemic phase are reasonable. If this picture were to be confirmed it would mean that we are dealing with a variant much more contagious but less dangerous for the individual.

What will happen?

We will be dealing with a milder disease than the forms we have known so far.

The negative aspects instead?

The problem is that until the situation stabilizes we have to deal with a very high number of infections even if we are talking about a milder disease. There will be a strong impact on health facilities, because the swab-quarantine mechanism decimates health personnel.

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Could there be other mutations? Will they be increasingly mild or very deadly mutations again?

We do not know. It is not that the virus disappears, it is an evolution that many experts expected. This virus would have somehow, using an incorrect expression, “adapted” and continued to circulate with other coronaviruses that we have been dealing with for years causing a mild flu-like illness from a cold. It is not to be excluded there will be other variants.

How does the competition work?

A new variant, to take over Omicron, will have to be even more contagious and even more dangerous. From the point of view of probabilities it is rather difficult there could be a contagious variant such as Omicron but which associates the danger of other variants such as the ones we have seen.

The Delta variant in Italy is still predominant, but there are still no specific vaccines for Omicron: is that so?

In reality, the Italian data on the prevalence of the Omicron variant that we have available are outdated. The latest provided by the Higher Institute of Health on December 20 are a photograph that is already old today: that 28% of Omicron cases is a percentage that is largely underestimated compared to the current situation.

What about vaccines?

There is no need to an update of ineffective vaccines as the current ones could be, protection from the most severe forms is maintained.

What’s the scenario?

That of a virus that persists but is less dangerous. And perhaps it is not strictly necessary to have undergone new vaccines: rather annual boosters for already vulnerable people. If instead it emerges that protection against the most severe forms decreases over time, then yes it would be advisable to have more effective vaccines against Omicron as soon as possible.

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