The Institute for Infectious Diseases in South Africa is monitoring the Omicron wave in the Pretoria district. The data suggests that the share of people who develop serious illness or die is significantly lower than in previous coronavirus waves, although officials pointed out that the findings are preliminary and the situation could change as the wave spreads.
Mortality rates in hospital are lower at this stage. 4% of Covid patients hospitalized in the last 25 days have died, compared to 20% in the previous two waves. There appears to be no correlation between the rate of disease severity or death with age. “We are only at the beginning but there are positive signs that indicate that most of the hospitalized patients are not serious and many of them arrive at the hospital for other medical reasons and discover with swabs that they are positive for coronavirus,” said Joe Phaahla. , minister of health of South Africa.
In the comparison between Delta and Omicron the Hospitalization rate of positives appears much lower for this latest wave and the percentage of admissions to intensive care is even lower. What emerges from the data from Gueteng, the epicenter of the Omicron outbreak in South Africa, is that although the hospitalization rate is lower than that seen with Delta, the number of patients hospitalized per week is higher since the number of susceptible people is much larger due to the extreme contagiousness of Omicron (also rated 500 times higher than the original Wuhan strain).
If vaccinated, you are therefore less likely to face serious consequences, but the rapid growth in total positives statistically leads to a greater number of hospitalizations with serious consequences for the health system. What is worrying, however, is the number of Omicron reinfections reported in recent days not only in South Africa but also in the rest of the world with super-diffusion events.
A study published last week that analyzed 35,670 reinfections among nearly 2.8 million positive tests carried out as of the end of November in South Africa suggests that a previous Covid-19 infection offers only half the protection against the new variant. This is a sign that Omicron is able to escape at least some of the immune system’s defenses and indicates that Covid-19 vaccines may be less effective.
Other laboratory investigations show how two doses of the vaccine are not sufficient to neutralize Omicron although sufficient to ward off serious illness. The however, the third dose would multiply antibodies against the disease by 25. However, the data are very preliminary and other studies are expected to show a more linear picture in the coming days.
Finally, a report that highlights the formidable evasion of Omicron’s immune response, which concerns 7 German patients who had been in South Africa for work or vacation (average age 27, all vaccinated with mRNA vaccines and booster dose performed at the early November) suggests that it may not be enough.
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