Why are hospitals still suffering if the great majority of Italians are vaccinated? Answer: a minority of unvaccinated people is enough to produce a high number of hospitalizations. For every hundred thousand inhabitants vaccinated, only one ends up in intensive care for Covid, but if they are not vaccinated that number rises to 23.
Let’s look at the numbers in more detail: the government website explains that 46,698,257 of those over 12 have completed the vaccination cycle, corresponding to 84.5 percent. An important figure, but it can be read in another way: 15.5 percent of over 12s are not protected against Covid and have high chances of ending up in hospital in case of contagion. There are more than 8 million, a huge pool.
The third dose population
And even among the 46.6 million vaccinated, a substantial part has not yet received the third dose, the one that best stems the effects of the Omicron variant. The spread of this mutation, isolated for the first time in South Africa, is changing the rules of the game: not only because it is five times faster in infecting than the Delta, but also because it causes many reinfections among those who had been infected with the variants. previous.
According to the government website, 470 thousand people recovered for a maximum of six months (and therefore still immunized in theory), but if it is true that reinfections with Omicron are not so rare, then they too are at risk. Finally, children between 5 and 11 years of age contribute to the circulation of the virus (and unfortunately also to hospitalizations, in higher numbers than at the beginning of the pandemic), of whom only 2 percent have completed the vaccination cycle, and those still smaller, for which there is no authorized vaccine in Europe. In the end, the total of unprotected Italians of any age is much higher than it seems, they are at least 13 million.
The basin No vax
Here, a large number of unprotected people, in the presence of a very contagious variant such as Omicron (and in parallel the Delta) represents a dangerous basin both for the circulation of the virus and for hospitalizations. Furthermore, if it is true that a vaccinee, even with a third dose, can become infected, it usually has much less serious consequences for the community, because it much more rarely goes to hospital. And an asymptomatic vaccine is also less likely to transmit the virus. In summary: without the 13 million unvaccinated, but even with half the figure, the management of the pandemic would be much easier, with the number of hospitalizations halved, not so far from the effects of a seasonal flu.
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