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Pharmacy deaths & demographics: almost 5 million people affected in 2030

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Pharmacy deaths & demographics: almost 5 million people affected in 2030

Thursday, December 7, 2023, 3:46 p.m

The VISION.A future conference took place on Tuesday under the title “Medicine supply on the brink: Why children are poorly cared for and pharmacies are dying”. Data analyst Dr. Dr. presented a particularly dramatic scenario. Julius Lagodny: According to his analyses, in 2030 up to 5 million people will live in postal code areas in which there is no longer a single pharmacy.

At the annual VISION.A future conference, visions for the pharmaceutical and pharmacy industry of the future are traditionally discussed. However, even the most visionary minds could not have imagined that things would look so bleak. The pharmaceutical supply in Germany is facing an abyss, and how deep this could be is becoming increasingly clear.

Working as a data analyst, Dr. Julius Lagodny for the Berlin-based EL PATO Medien GmbH. In his keynote, he exclusively presented current figures and trends. To do this, he examined the uneven development of pharmacy density (measured in pharmacies per 100,000 inhabitants) in all inhabited German postal code areas. “There are already an alarming number of black holes in Germany that indicate increasing supply gaps,” Lagodny explained to the audience, referring to the illustration of the pharmacy density maps of Germany in his presentation. “However, the trend will become even more dramatic by 2030, especially due to the ongoing demographic change, which is pulling the rug out from under our feet when it comes to supply.” People in already structurally weak regions as well as children and people over 65 are particularly at risk from this development Of the latter, around 1.2 million people will live in a postcode area without a single pharmacy by 2030.

The modeling illustrates the risks in the coming years. In the best case, it stays as it is. With an average of 22 pharmacies per 100,000 inhabitants, Germany already has a low density of pharmacies compared to the EU (32). Lagodny: “The efficiency reserves seem to have been exhausted.” If the development is not linear but rather more dramatic, there is a risk that the density of pharmacies and thus the local supply of medicines will be reduced to around 18 – Germany would then be among the worst performers in the EU.

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More insights about Dr. Julius Lagodny’s keynote can be found in article linked here on PHARMACY ADHOC. Additionally, you can Full-length keynote Watch on YouTube (starting at minute 52:00).

EL PATO Medien GmbH produces media and other formats for the healthcare industry in Berlin and Vienna with more than 80 employees, with a particular focus on the pharmacy and pharmaceutical sectors. The focus is on digital communication and live events. We will provide further image and media material for VISION.A upon request [email protected] happy to assist.

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