Thanks to the vaccinations of the elderly and the frail, hospitals today have 90% fewer Covid patients compared to the peak in early April. And the situation continues to improve since also this week, there is a clear reduction in new infections (7,262 against 11,440) and almost halved deaths (221 against 411). Independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation, however, draws attention to the risks of the delta variant: “A “wait-and-see” management is not acceptable“- explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – against this variant it is necessary to promptly implement the measures recommended by the ECDC: enhance sequencing and contact tracing, implement screening strategies for those arriving from abroad, accelerate the administration of the second dose in over 60s and the frail, commensurate the intensity of non-pharmacological measures to contain the infection with their complete coverage “.
And give
In the week 16-22 June, compared to the previous one, the monitoring detects a significant decline of about a third for all indicators: currently positive (72,964 vs 105,906), people in home isolation (70,313 vs 102,069), hospitalized with symptoms (2,289 vs 3,333) e terapie intensive (362 versus 504). “The decline in new weekly cases has been going on for 14 consecutive weeks – explains Cartabellotta – but the progressive decrease in tests underestimates the number of new cases and documents the insufficient tracing of contacts, crucial in this phase of the pandemic”. From the week of May 5-11 the number of tampons was progressively reduced by 52%, going from 662.549 to 313.122. The decline in new weekly cases is confirmed throughout the national territory (the percentage increase in Liguria and Molise is irrelevant in absolute value) and deaths have also been steadily decreasing for 10 weeks, which in the last week averaged 32. per day compared to 59 the previous week.
The hospitals
«Occupancy of the beds by Covid patients nationally it is 4% both in the medical area and in intensive care – affirms Renata Gili of Gimbe – with all the Regions that record values lower than 10% and 4 Regions without Covid patients hospitalized in intensive care ». From the peak of 6 April, the number of beds occupied in the medical area fell from 29,337 to 2,289 (-92%) and those in intensive care from 3,743 to 362 (-90%). “Daily admissions to intensive care – explains Marco Mosti of Gimbe – have been decreasing for 3 months and the 7-day moving average is 11 admissions per day”.
Delta variant
According to the ECDC report published yesterday, the delta variant is 40-60% more contagious than the alpha variant e it will determine 70% of new infections by the beginning of August and 90% by the end. In Italy, according to the international database Gisaid, on the basis of the samples taken from 9 to 23 June, out of 218 sequences deposited 71 (32.6%) are from the delta variant, a number of uncertain national representativeness given that not all Regions share the same sequences in this database. From the ISS survey of May 18, the delta variant stood at 1%, but a more accurate figure on its circulation is expected with the new prevalence survey on June 22 samples. “In the absence of reliable data on the presence of the delta variant in Italy – points out Cartabellotta – there are three certainties: the number of sequences is modest and heterogeneous at the regional level; contact tracing is not adequately resumed; the comparison with what is happening in the United Kingdom is worrying despite being further ahead in terms of vaccination coverage: in fact in Italy just over 1 person out of 4 ha completed the vaccination cycle (27.6% compared to 46% of the UK), while 26.5% of the population received only one dose (compared to 17% in the UK) and 46% are totally uncovered (compared to 37% in the UK), worrying percentages considering the lower efficacy of a single dose of vaccine against this variant ».
Deliveries of vaccines
As of June 23, they were delivered 50,320,824 doses, equal to 66% of those provided for in the vaccination plan for the first semester. «25.9 million doses would remain to be delivered by the end of the second quarter, 34% of those originally planned. Even not considering the CureVac vaccine, which has not successfully passed clinical tests, it is certain that 18.6 million doses will not arrive by the end of the month ». In fact, according to the statements of General Figliuolo, in June we will have a monthly total of messenger RNA vaccines of 15.3 million: in other words, comments Cartabellotta “if 9.43 million doses of Pfizer have already been delivered in June / BioNTech and 1.27 million Moderna, only another 4.7 million doses are expected by the end of the month ». The Commissioner also stated that for the month of July the availability of approx 14.5 million doses of mRna vaccines. “Therefore, counting on 19.2 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the next five weeks – explains Mosti – the certain capacity of administration is about 550 thousand doses per day at most, given that we know nothing of the deliveries of AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson planned for July”.
Countryside
As of June 23, 54% of the population received at least one dose of vaccine (32,019,764) e 27.6% completed the vaccination course (16,342,041). In the last week, 3,751,029 million doses were administered, for the first time down compared to the previous week (-4.5%) compared to more than 3 million doses still “in the fridge”. The 7-day moving average also decreases, which from the peak of 10 June dropped from 585,639 to 542,448 inoculations / day on 22 June
Gli over 60
86% of the over 60s received at least the first dose of vaccine, with some regional differences: if Puglia and Umbria have exceeded 90%, Sicily remains below 75%.
–Over 80: of the over 4.4 million, 3,883,342 (86.7%) completed the vaccination course and 307,914 (6.9%) received the first dose only;
– Range 70-79 years: of the over 5.9 million, 2,914,810 (48.9%) completed the vaccination course and 2,278,673 (38.2%) received the first dose only;
– Range 60-69 years: of the over 7.3 million, 3,150,738 (42.3%) completed the vaccination course and 2,851,868 (38.3%) received the first dose only.
In other words, nearly 2.5 million over 60s (14%) have not received even a dose of the vaccine, with significant regional differences: from 25.2% in Sicily to 8.7% in Puglia. Moreover, the trend of vaccination coverage by age group now confirms the flattening of the curves of the over 80s and the 70-79 and 60-69 groups, as well as demonstrating a a sharp decline in the last three weeks for the 50-59 year range, already covering less than 70%. “Whereas over 5.4 million people over 60 have yet to complete the vaccination course – Gili points out – it should be emphasized that according to the latest Public Health England report against the delta variant a single dose of vaccine reduces the probability of disease by 31% and hospitalization by 75%; percentages that rise respectively to 80% and 94% with the complete cycle ».
June 24, 2021 (change June 24, 2021 | 10:42)
© breaking latest news