BERLIN – “We are certainly on the verge of a major offensive by Ukraine, whose main objective will probably be the Sea of Azov, in an attempt to cut the link with Crimea,” he says Dmitry Suslov, adviser to the Kremlin, who heads the Center for European and International Studies at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, one of the most important institutes where Russian foreign policy is thought out.
And aren’t you worried?
«From the Russian perspective, the West is betting heavily on the success of the offensive, both for military reasons since the quantity of weapons and ammunition it can supply to Kiev is starting to run low after deliveries in recent months, and for political reasons since support for the Ukrainian cause in Western societies is beginning to decline, particularly in the US in view of the presidential elections. It is by no means obvious, for example, that Congress will authorize the new funds for Ukraine in the summer when the current ones have run out. In other words, the West has a very strong interest that the Ukrainian offensive is successful. If this didn’t happen, in the second half of the year Kiev would find itself in a much weaker position and then Russia would launch its offensive».
But hasn’t he already done it in these two months?
“The Western narrative that Moscow has attempted and failed the offensive in Donbass is false. It was not a large-scale attempt in the conventional sense of the word, but more pressure without massive use of troops on the ground. Small units were used, there were no real manoeuvres. Russia has exerted pressure to weaken the Ukrainians, decreasing their offensive potential. Let us also remember that Russia still uses detainees, while Ukraine uses regular troops.’
In light of last month’s supplies, from German and British tanks to Polish Mig-29s to ammunition, Ukraine has objectively strengthened. Doesn’t this worry the Russian commands?
‘We must neither exaggerate nor underestimate Ukraine’s military potential. Let’s look at the numbers though: so far according to our estimates, 57 new tanks out of the 300 promised have been delivered, including the German Leopard 2s and the British Challengers. Even if they all came, which won’t happen until the end of the year, it wouldn’t be many. Also taking into account the rest – tanks, howitzers, ammunition and fighters – the Ukrainian one is a serious threat. But I don’t think these are the “magic weapons” that can make a difference on the ground. The more important question is another: what will happen if the Ukrainians fail, despite all this Western help? If all this arsenal is unsuccessfully thrown into the furnace? The West won’t have much to replace him. Ukraine will find itself almost exposed. While Russia, as some Western media have correctly estimated, will mobilize 400,000 new volunteers by the end of the year and will be ready to launch a real offensive».
From what you say, you’re not giving any chance to start negotiations.
“The probability is zero. The West will not allow Ukraine entry or participate in any negotiations before the spring offensive. Our reading of the Western position is that if the Ukrainian attack is successful and Crimea is threatened, then the situation is conducive to negotiation. But if that doesn’t happen, it will be Russia that will not allow any negotiations before its counter-offensive in the autumn. So I don’t expect anything on the negotiating front by 2023».
The new Russian foreign policy doctrine, presented by Putin and Lavrov, indicates the USA as the “main source of threat” to Russia’s security. Is it the confirmation that every bridge is burnt by now?
‘I think, in the first place, that the crucial passage in that document is the one in which Russia defines itself not only as a state but also as an ‘independent civilization’, distinct from any other. Second, the document correctly describes the state of the world, in which on the one hand the collective West wages a global hybrid war against Russia, which it wants to weaken and eventually destroy as a power, on the other hand we see fundamental and rapid changes towards the creation of a multipolar world, where new players emerge beyond China, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, other Asian countries with few exceptions, the African ones. This translates into a double foreign policy action by Russia: on the one hand to fight a war with the West, on the other to strengthen cooperation with the rest of the world, the non-Western world which is the majority. There is a new hierarchy in our strategic interests, which puts neighboring areas first, followed by China and India, then by the Islamic and African worlds and only finally by the West, seen as an adversary. Of course, we differentiate between Europe and the Anglo-Saxon West, which is the hard core. If the European countries changed their policy, we would be ready to resume cooperation».
But with the war in Ukraine you produced the opposite effect: yesterday Finland joined NATO.
‘I would also mention the indictment of the Russian president by the International Criminal Court, which excludes any possibility of normalizing relations with Europe in the near future.’
What are the countermeasures announced by the Kremlin after Helsinki’s accession to the Atlantic Pact?
«From now on, if there were to be a NATO-Russia war, unlike in the past, Finnish territory would be the central theater of the clash. Russia must therefore prepare, for example by militarizing its northwest. The size of this strengthening on the northwestern border will depend on what we see in Finland: whether there will be medium or long-range missiles, NATO bases and troops, nuclear weapons. We will respond in kind to every move».
Putin admitted for the first time in recent days that the Russian economy is feeling the grip of sanctions. So unlike what has been stated so far, they’re having an impact. Will this have an influence on political decisions?
‘Absolutely not. I think that so far Russia’s economic development under conditions of heavy embargo has been successful. Russia’s economic performance can be said to have been better than its military. Granted, Western sanctions will have a cumulative effect, hampering robust growth. But the general perception is that they have already failed in the attempt to defeat Russia, which has been able to adapt also thanks to the role played by the non-Western world, from China down, which has refused to follow the diktat of the Western alliance”. .