At this point in the pandemic, each of us should have established the amount of risk of contracting Covid that we are willing to tolerate. But while this is an evaluation strictly personal, the probabilities of contracting covid in different situations are more easily calculated for everyone, because they are based on scientific data – such as those on the spread of infected aerosols. In other words, today we are able to understand with a good dose of confidence how likely it is to contract the covid in the various interactions of every day, with or without a mask, indoors or outdoors, spaced or not, in a more or less place. less crowded, where you speak in a low voice and where you scream, where you stay long or just passing through …
Risk calculator. In recent months, a group of US volunteers has developed a tool that allows you to calculate this risk and make reasoned decisions about the activities you want to do in this phase of recovery of social life. It’s called microCOVID Project and it’s a page that allows you to answer questions such as: what is the safest way to meet up with friends? How much would it help that everyone wear the mask correctly in the workplace? Can I feel comfortable on the plane?
Activity and company. After entering the country and region (the covid prevalence data for each location is taken from international databases and updated every week), the situation in which you will find yourself is described: 15-minute drive with another person, interaction at closed without a mask with one person, one hour weekly shopping in a crowded place, dinner at an indoor restaurant, full flight, outdoor party … Then you enter the number of nearby people expected, their distance , the duration of the interaction and their risk profile: do they live alone or in crowded contexts? Do they have contact with people at risk? How willing are they to expose themselves to the infection in turn?
Precautions. Finally, fill in the fields on the type of context, outdoors or indoors, on the type of mask that we ourselves and others will wear or will not wear and on the vaccination situation (type of vaccine and number of doses received: data on vaccine effectiveness in the real world are inserted as they arrive and may not be fully up to date) The risk is calculated in microCOVID numbers, where 1 microCOVID corresponds to a millionth chance of contracting the covid. Everyone decides how many microCOVIDs he is willing to accumulate in a week, a year or absolutely, establishing a sort of “risk budget” that must not exceed. What profile of caution are we willing to assume?
Risk assessment. The standard risk profile, suggested for healthy people not in close contact with vulnerable subjects, implies a 1% probability of contracting Covid in a year (equal to 200 microCOVIDs per week). For a person aged 16 to 49, this profile exposes them to the risk of developing long-term consequences of COVID to an extent similar to how a full year of driving a car exposes them to the possibility of developing long-term health consequences. due to possible accidents. Assuming that “zero risk” does not exist, it is worth remembering that, when we talk about covid, we must not only think about the severity of the disease, but also about the possible, debilitating effects of the infection on health, only partially known.