It would have once been said that mathematics is not an opinion. And perhaps there is no better way to explain the effect of vaccinations than to use numbers to show that Sars Cov-2, the cursed virus that has disrupted our lives for almost two years, is now affecting and having effects. serious only on the audience of the unvaccinated.
As if the Israeli or British or American data were not enough (with the incredible difference in deaths from Covid determined by the different level of vaccination in the various states), let’s take the figures released by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità for the period 21 June – 4 July. Well, in those two weeks the deaths from Covid were almost all concentrated among the unvaccinated: 100% in the range between 12 and 29 years; 92% between forty and fifty, 81% for those between 60 and 79 and 70% for those born from 1941 and previous years. Among those vaccinated under the age of 60, not even one death caused by Covid-19 has been recorded.
In short, the vaccine is doing its job of protection very well.
It is no coincidence that the most vaccinated group of Italians, the one made up of people over eighty, saw their share of infections fall by 500% in relation to the total population. The graph that we publish at the top right is explicit: at the beginning of the year the infections among the over 80s (which represent roughly 7% of the Italian population) were 10% of the total, today they are reduced to 2% or down. there with a very slight increase due to the entrance on the stage of the hypercontagious Delta variant.
But let’s go back to the figures of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Another fact that certifies the positive effect of vaccines is that of hospitalizations in intensive care. At this stage there are very few of them compared to almost 4,000 beds occupied in April. But those few are 85%, ie almost all, patients who were not vaccinated when they entered the hospital. Only 10.6% of ICUs are “assigned” to patients with a single vaccine dose. While just 4.3% of the most serious hospitalizations are related to the conditions of patients who have been administered the classic two doses.
Vaccine and Delta variant
If this is the case, it is legitimate to ask what scenario is being prepared for Italy for next autumn. Let’s start from a precise stake: the vaccine protects well only after the second dose. And the data tell us that the Italians who are in this condition as of yesterday (18.25) were 29 million and 655 thousand equal to half of the total population. So there is still a long way to go even if another 5.5 million Italians have already taken the first dose.
That there is no time to waste is shown by the forecasts of the experts who speak of a level of 25 / 30,000 new daily infections starting from the second half of August caused by the Delta variant which is very contagious.
The exponential increase in vaccinations is essential to prevent this large amount of infections from turning into a new wave of hospitalizations and deaths and, therefore, a new halt to the recovery of the economy.
The most recent British data, where 36.5 million vaccinated with double dose are 36.5 million, a figure not far from the Italian one, tell us that among the new infected with the Delta variant, 2% end up in hospital and 0.4% do not. makes her survive the disease. This means that even in Italy we must expect that out of every 10,000 future infected around 200 (2%) will go to occupy hospital beds and 40 (0.4%) will die. Data serious but not terrifying like those of the first Covid which were up to 5 times higher for both hospitalizations and deaths.
On this front too, mathematics is no joke. But we understand that there is only one way to prevent those so far only hypothetical numbers from becoming a reality: get vaccinated as soon as possible.
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