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The statistics that help to understand how reliable a prediction is

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How to know, or understand, if a prediction relating to an event on which we have decided to bet is reliable or has a reasonable number of probabilities of happening? Looking at reliable data obtained from statistics.

Take for example Roma-Milan, the key match of the 11th day of the Serie A football championship. «Roma lost their last home game against Milan in Serie A and have not lost two home games in a row against the Rossoneri since 2005 “. Furthermore, “after losing his first match against Milan in Serie A in 2008, current Roma coach José Mourinho has won all his last three matches with the Rossoneri in the top flight, with eight goals scored and only one conceded” .

These are some of the statistics elaborated by Sbostats, a startup that operates in a particular segment: it is in fact a statistical platform on the initial odds and training in sports betting: a tool to treat gambling as if it were a financial trading activity.
In practice, the goal is to approach the world of betting based on statistical data. The idea came to the entrepreneur of the sector Luca Camossi, who studied the game from a mathematical point of view to identify a correct method to look at the predictions: in practice, not a betting platform but a tool to give players awareness.

Returning to the Roma-Milan football match, Sbostats in fact provides elements elaborated on the basis of real data. For example: Roma at home scored 60% of the goals in the second half. Away AC Milan scored 64.7% of their goals in the second half of their matches. And so on. Given “the opening odds of 2.40 for the victory of Roma, 3.50 for the draw, 2.80 for the victory of Milan”, the platform makes it known that “the percentages that the predictions occur at these odds are – respectively – 40.29%, 30.22% and 29.5% “.

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The startup raised around 900,000 euros from investors between 2018 and 2021: 100,000 in the first two years and 400,000 in 2020 and 2021 (in the latter case from a bank).

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