“The surge in cases is inevitable, but with low hospitalizations nothing to fear”

The increase in cases positive risks bringing us back to the starting point. With the prospect of new closures or in any case of greater limitations. Fabrizio Pregliasco, researcher of general and applied hygiene at the University of Milan, in the meantime prefers to maintain a line of caution, without too many rushes forward: “we must monitor the situation day by day – he says – However, I believe that in the short term there shouldn’t be a problem of engagement in the national health service “.

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The upward trend in cases does not bode well.
“This is an inevitable increase. We are observing a progression that is not very heavy after all, we will be able to better assess the situation in the next few days ».
The figure that matters most is that of hospitalizations?
“Sure. There is already a slight increase in hospitalizations and intensive care. But this too is an inescapable fact. Let us not forget that the gatherings linked to Europeans have contributed to the increase in cases, even if we must not underestimate the fact that the situation is worrying at a global level. However, the important data we are evaluating is also that of the vaccinated. I believe that soon the number of hospitalizations should not be challenging. We continue to monitor ».
So in your opinion it is useful to change the risk assessment parameters of the regions?
«Yes, we must rely on hospitalization data to avoid stringent measures that make the virus containment plan less acceptable. But it is also important to maintain a good percentage of swabs per capita per region, in order to be able to obtain, as long as possible, a certain quota of surveillance and tracking ».

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However, many health care companies complain about the difficulty of identifying the transmission chain of infections because often some, even if positive, prefer not to say it.
“We need an efficient contact registration system. However, it seems to me that from the organizational point of view we are proceeding in this direction. Of course, we know that sometimes those who, for example, have a VAT number or want to go on vacation would like to avoid the consequences of home isolation. But it is irresponsible behavior. Going around while being aware of being positive means putting yourself or your family on the line and maintaining that chain of contagion that will create problems over time “.
Do you think the green pass should be made mandatory everywhere?
“In the meantime, it needs to be graded on the basis of the coloring of the territories and the different epidemiological situations. SarsCov2 taught us to be very flexible and responsive. So, let’s plan some interventions, thinking about the worst case scenario. And let’s equip ourselves to be ready and thus be able to manage any scenario. If the situation remains good, the green pass could very well be used for important crowds, but also to open discos. In a worst case scenario, it may be necessary to enter restaurants instead. We must take into account a progression of elements to be predefined, on the basis of future scenarios that could more or less manifest themselves ».
And which strategy works best?
«Obviously the vaccination. But we have to overcome the slowdown we are seeing these days. So far we have vaccinated everyone who wished to do so. It will be more difficult now to get the undecided vaccinated and reach a wider coverage of the population. Meanwhile, let’s continue to behave with common sense. Let’s use the mask now as any fashion accessory. In 15 days we will understand if we have to change our strategy ».