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the three scenarios between now and 2027

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the three scenarios between now and 2027

It looks like we’ll have to live with the Covid for a few more years, but what will happen will depend, in some ways, on us: there are three possible scenarios between now and 2027, obviously linked and conditioned by various unknowns, in particular the vaccination of the poorest countries, but also i international conflicts and the international collaboration. Let’s see them in detail.

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Pandemic improves, but it’s not over

The experts of the International Science Council – the organization that brings together over 200 national and international scientific associations – outlined them in a recent document that takes stock of the “challenges and difficulties” to defeat Covid. They will be vaccinations and immunization rate around the world – at the moment about the 60% – to act as a needle of the balance.

The worst of the pandemic should be behind us but governments “must not pretend that the crisis is over just because mortality has reduced: for many citizens there will still be many years of difficulties and challenges”

80% vaccinated, the optimistic scenario

The first scenario that is also the most optimisticspeculates that in the coming years the percentage of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 will increase globally from about 61% to over 80%: in this case many human lives could be saved and the risk of new variants could be reduced. The coronavirus would not go away, but it would become more manageable, with significant benefits for citizens’ mental health, the economy and sustainable development.

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Most likely

The second scenario, which is also what experts consider the most likely, assumes instead that the myopia of many governments (unwilling to help countries in difficulty) keeps the vaccination rate globally below the 70%: in this case the coronavirus could become endemic, with seasonal peaks that would overwhelm hospitals in various countries and require “updated vaccines and the use of antiviral drugs”.

By 2027 there would thus be an “exacerbation of global inequalities” and the same sustainable development goals set by the United Nations would risk being postponed by a decade.

What if vaccines stop growing?

The third and final scenario is also the most pessimistic. Indeed, it prefigures a growth in nationalisms and populisms (which would reduce the adoption of vaccines) and in geopolitical tensions (a risk for the international cooperation necessary to face the great global challenges). In this scenario, less than the 60% of the world population would be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and low-income countries would have limited access to vaccines and antivirals. The virus could remain largely uncontrolled causing severe relapses in various parts of the world.

The survey also notes the impact of the pandemic: only in 2020 more than 8% of working hours equal to 225 million full-time jobs were lost. Decidedly heavy also the impact on mental health of people.

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