On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in his government work report that “the main expected development goals for this year are: GDP growth of about 5.5%” and “consumer price increase of about 3%”.
“At present, my country’s overall economy has entered an era in which stock replaces increment and quality is superior to quantity. Low and medium-speed economic growth does not contradict high-quality development. In the face of repeated epidemics, complex and changeable international situations, and my country’s economy insisting on high-quality development In the context of the government work report, the target of an expected GDP growth of about 5.5% is pragmatic.” An Ting, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, chairman and general manager of Xiken Culture, said in an interview with the “Securities Daily” reporter that he believed that the completion of this year’s GDP, Macroeconomic development goals such as CPI are promising.
GDP target for this year: around 5.5% growth
Yang Chang, chief analyst of the policy team of the China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, told a reporter from Securities Daily that on the basis of the average growth rate of 5.1% in the previous two years, the GDP target for 2022 is set at around 5.5%, indicating that we are making every effort to stabilize growth. work intent. Especially in the face of the triple pressure of “demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations” that the economy has faced since the fourth quarter of 2021, a medium-to-high growth rate has been proposed, fully demonstrating the intention to make every effort to stabilize growth and stabilize the economic market. Correspondingly, macro policies need to further play a role as a safety pad, especially fiscal policy, which needs to be further implemented and effective; monetary policy needs to be well coordinated to maintain a reasonable and sufficient amount.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that this year’s GDP target is set at around 5.5%. First, considering the resilience of my country’s economic growth, domestic policy space is relatively large; second, GDP maintains a certain growth rate. It is helpful to stabilize the employment market. Employment is the greatest livelihood of the people, and stable employment is an important basis for expanding domestic demand. Thirdly, the foundation of the current global economic recovery is relatively fragile, and my country needs to set reasonable development goals. Fourthly, the key to medium and long-term economic development lies in reform and Innovation-driven, should avoid setting too high economic growth goals to cause impact on other economic development goals.
“Compared with other countries, the GDP target of about 5.5% is actually not low; more importantly, my country’s total economic scale has reached 114 trillion yuan, and such a large-scale volume has maintained a growth rate of 5.5%, especially in the current Under the complex international political and economic situation, it is not easy.” Zhou Maohua said.
Li Zhan, chief economist of the Research Department of China Merchants Fund, told the Securities Daily reporter that the 2022 GDP target setting is in line with expectations, aiming to ensure the smooth operation of the economy, emphasizing active action. It is expected that the annual GDP growth will be low and then high, and the growth rate may exceed expectations.
CPI target: an increase of about 3%
It is worth noting that this year’s CPI target remains the same as last year, with an increase of about 3%. In this regard, Yang Chang said that from the perspective of target setting in the past 10 years, seven years have been set within 3%.
“As for the situation in mid-2021, the structural factors of price increases are more obvious, especially the divergence of PPI and CPI increases, and the core CPI remains stable. This leads to the transfer of profits to the upstream, while the ability of price transmission to the downstream is weak. Yang Chang said that in 2022, how to control the structural differentiation of prices, ensure the profit margins of the midstream manufacturing industry, and expand effective investment in the manufacturing industry deserves attention.
In Zhou Maohua’s view, at present, inflation in many overseas economies is still high, and domestic inflation is generally moderate and controllable. This is mainly due to the lack of peak season for pork consumption and the fall in prices. At the same time, the supply of necessities such as fruits and vegetables is sufficient, and prices remain stable.
“From a trend point of view, the CPI has increased year-on-year, but the momentum is moderate.” Zhou Maohua said that on the one hand, domestic demand has steadily recovered. The drag of pork prices on consumer prices has weakened, and superimposed energy prices have risen, driving consumer prices to rebound slightly. On the other hand, the recovery of domestic demand in my country is still lagging behind the supply of production, and the production capacity of live pigs has returned to normal, but the consumer side may still be restrained to a certain extent.
At the same time, Zhou Maohua also pointed out that the current international geopolitical situation is heating up, impacting the global industrial chain and supply chain, and affecting the supply of energy and commodities. my country needs to be vigilant against imported inflation, moderately increase the supply of relevant raw materials, and continue to implement policies and measures to ensure commodity supply and stabilize prices.
(Editor in charge: Zhang Ziyi)
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