US stocks
U.S. economic data suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle. Coupled with the easing of doubts brought about by the banking industry, the four major U.S. indexes rose ahead of the key inflation report, led by semiconductor stocks. rise.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43% (141.43 points) to close at 32,859.03 points on March 30, a new closing high since March 6. The Nasdaq rose 0.73% (87.24 points) to close at 12,013.47 points, a new closing high since February 15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57% (23.02 points) to close at 4,050.83 points, the highest closing level since February 17. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.62% (51.15 points) to close at 3,208.26 points, the highest closing level since April 5, 2022.
According to data released by the United States on the 30th, the annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2022 (October-December) was slightly revised down from the previous estimate of 2.7% to 2.6%, mainly due to the slight weakening of exports and consumer spending. reason. Separately, initial jobless claims rose slightly to 198,000 in the week ended March 25 from 191,000 the previous week, above the 195,000 reported by the Wall Street Journal, suggesting a softening in the labor market.
Mike Loewengart, head of modeling portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office, said the data supported the Fed’s view that the rate hike cycle was coming to an end. He pointed out that the number of initial jobless claims rose at a time when the GDP data was revised down slightly, suggesting that the Fed’s tightening monetary policy is starting to work. However, one has to keep in mind that unemployment claims are still low and GDP is still growing.
It is worth noting that the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator “Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index” is scheduled to be released this Friday (31st). Investors will look for further clues to inflation.
Susan M. Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said in a speech at the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) on the 30th that the pressure on the banking industry makes it difficult to judge what kind of interest rate policy is appropriate, but raising interest rates again seems unlikely. Very reasonable. She currently forecasts a slight tightening of monetary policy before keeping it on hold until the end of the year.
crude
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) May crude oil futures closed up $1.4, or 1.9%, at $74.37 a barrel on March 30, due to the impact of expected demand growth and reduced supply, the European ICE Futures Europe (ICE FuturesEurope) front-month Extra crude rose 99 cents, or 1.3%, to $79.27 a barrel.
UBS (UBS) reported that China’s crude oil imports are expected to increase and Russia’s production will decrease, which is expected to provide support for oil prices in the second quarter. Energy analysis company FGE reported that if market conditions meet expectations and an economic recession can be avoided, oil prices are expected to remain in the range of US$75-85 per barrel in the second quarter.
The U.S. Department of Energy announced on March 29 that as of March 24, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.5 million barrels from the previous week to 473.7 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels to 226.7 million barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 300,000 barrels to 116.7 million barrels. Crude oil inventories in the United States last week were 6% higher than the average for the same period in the past five years, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased by 4% and 9% respectively compared with the average for the same period in the past five years.
In the week of March 24, the average daily crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries increased by 437,000 barrels from the previous week to 15.8 million barrels, and the refinery capacity utilization rate increased to 90.3% from 88.6% in the previous week. Gasoline production rose to 10 million bpd from 9.5 million bpd in the previous week, while distillate production rose to 4.6 million bpd from 4.5 million bpd in the previous week.
The average daily import of crude oil in the United States this week decreased by 847,000 barrels from the previous week to 5.3 million barrels. The average daily import of crude oil in the past 4 weeks was 6 million barrels, a decrease of 5.8% compared with the same period last year. The average daily import of gasoline increased to 873,000 barrels from 471,000 barrels in the previous week, and the average daily import of distillate oil decreased to 146,000 barrels from 222,000 barrels in the previous week. The average daily demand for gasoline increased to 9.145 million barrels from 8.96 million barrels in the previous week, compared with 8.5 million barrels in the same period last year.
As an indicator of demand, in the past 4 weeks, the average daily supply of oil products in the United States was 19.7 million barrels, a decrease of 5.1% compared with the same period last year; among them, the average daily supply of gasoline increased by 0.6% to 8.8 million barrels per day, and the average daily supply of distillate oil The average daily supply of aviation kerosene increased by 7.1% to 1.585 million barrels annually.
In the week ended March 24, U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.2 million barrels per day, down 100,000 barrels from the previous week. The U.S. Department of Energy report predicts that in 2023, the average daily output of U.S. crude oil is expected to reach 12.4 million barrels per day, surpassing the record high of 12.3 million barrels per day in 2019. U.S. crude oil exports fell to 4.584 million barrels per day this week from 4.932 million barrels in the previous week.
agricultural products
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) three major agricultural futures fell across the board on March 30. May corn futures closed down 0.2% to $6.4950 per British bushel, May wheat fell 1.8% to $6.9225 per British bushel, and May soybeans fell 0.2% to $14.7450 per bushel. Futures Broker RJO! @! Brien & Associates LLC market director Feltes (Rich Feltes) said that Russia’s grain supply is still continuing, and the winter wheat harvest in Russia, Ukraine and Europe is generally good.
Intercontinental futures exchange (ICE Futures U.S.) May cotton futures rose 0.9% to 83.50 cents a pound on March 30, May raw sugar futures rose 3.3% to 21.96 cents a pound.
FarmersBusinessNetwork (FBN), an online e-commerce platform for farmers in California, reported on March 29 that the planting area of corn in the United States this year will be significantly higher than that of soybeans. Kevin McNew, chief economist of FBN, said that the company’s survey shows that the US corn planting area will reach 92.5 million acres this year, while the soybean planting area is estimated at 84.5 million acres, which will be bullish for soybean prices and positive for corn prices. It is bad. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting intention survey report on the 31st.
A number of agencies have released estimates for this year’s U.S. crop acreage. According to a survey by the American agricultural magazine “FarmFutures”, in 2023, the planting area of corn in the United States is expected to decrease by 1% to 87.677 million acres, the planting area of soybeans is expected to increase by 2.5% to 89.62 million acres, and the planting area of wheat is expected to It was essentially unchanged at 45.74 million acres.
According to the annual survey by Allendale, Inc., a commodity brokerage and research company in Illinois, the U.S. corn acreage in 2023 is expected to increase by 2.1% from 88.56 million acres in the previous year to 90.414 million acres, lower than that in the U.S. The Department of Agriculture estimated 91 million acres at the Outlook Forum last month; soybean acreage is estimated to increase by 0.4% from 87.45 million acres in the previous year to 87.768 million acres, higher than the 87.5 million acres estimated by the USDA last month; Wheat area will increase 6.5 percent to 48.706 million acres from 45.738 million last season, down from the USDA’s estimate of 49.5 million acres last month.
Metal
Gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed up $13.2, or 0.7%, at $1,997.7 an ounce on March 30, while the U.S. dollar index fell 0.5%, while silver futures for May delivery rose 2.2% to $23.989 an ounce. Platinum futures for July delivery rose 2% to $996.9 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), while palladium futures for June delivery rose 1.8% to $1,463.60 an ounce.
The world‘s largest gold ETF State Street Wealth Gold Index Fund (SPDR Gold Shares, GLD) 30-day gold holdings increased by 1.74 metric tons to 929.47 metric tons, hitting a new high in five months. The largest silver ETF Anshuo Silver Index Fund (iSharesSilverTrust, SLV), silver holdings increased by 17.15 metric tons to 14,327.31 metric tons.
The Bank of Montreal Capital Markets (BMOCapitalMarkets) report stated that under the influence of uncertainties in the financial market, investors will continue to favor safe-haven assets, and it is expected that gold demand will remain strong. $2,000 an ounce.
The bank raised its forecast for the average gold price in 2023 by 13% to $1,906 an ounce, and expects the peak of this year’s gold price to fall in the third quarter, when the average gold price in the third quarter can reach $1,950 an ounce, which is higher than the original forecast. The forecast was also revised up by 17%. The bank also raised its long-term average gold price forecast by 7% to $1,500 an ounce.
The bank also raised its forecast for the average silver price in 2023 by 8% to $22 an ounce. Estimates were revised up 9%. The bank also raised its long-term average silver price forecast by 5% to $21 an ounce.
The report stated that in the long run, the outlook for silver industrial demand is still optimistic, mainly driven by the advancement of 5G infrastructure, the growth of the electric vehicle market, the continued strength of the consumer electronics market, and the continued acceleration of solar power installations.
The bank raised its forecast for global growth this year to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent, largely on the back of strong data from the U.S. and Canada, while the euro zone and the U.K. shrugged off fears of a deep recession. However, the global market will still face persistent uncertainties, especially after the outbreak of the banking crisis, the risk of a global recession is even higher. The bank may revisit its assessment of the global economy if there are signs of tightening in U.S. credit, the report said.
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