A game full of bluffs on Ukrainian grain exports – Pierre Haski

Weaponization is an English word that is difficult to translate. It can mean militarization but also conflictualization. This is what Vladimir Putin has continued to do in every context since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, from gas to the nuclear threat on the civil and military level. The head of the Kremlin plays with the nerves of Ukrainians, Europeans and the whole world to pursue his goals.

The same dynamic occurs with regard to Ukrainian cereals, which are indispensable for many countries in the Middle East and Africa. At the moment a liar poker game is underway whose stakes are a possible famine but also the position of the southern countries with respect to the Ukrainian conflict.

In the summer, a mediation by Turkey and the UN had allowed the passage of ships loaded with cereals across the Black Sea, avoiding the hypothesis of a famine. But over the weekend Putin “suspended” the agreement after the attack on the Russian fleet in the port of Sebastopol.

The search for those responsible
On October 31 and November 1 the passage of the ships went smoothly, but Ukraine, Russia and Turkey announced that on November 2 there will be no movement on the Black Sea, no doubt to leave room for negotiation.

Who will be blamed for the food crisis in the weakest countries? Leaning on the Sebastopol attack, Russia seeks to place the blame on Ukraine’s Western allies, in an attempt to maintain (at worst) the active neutrality of a part of the southern countries highlighted by the votes at the United Nations.

A few days ago a Western official complained that part of Africa still does not understand that the responsibility for the crisis lies entirely with Russia: “Without the war in Ukraine there would be no risk of famine”.

Last week, the president of Guinea Bissau, representing West African states, visited both Moscow and Kiev, only to declare that he found Putin more convincing than his Ukrainian colleague. In short, the message is not getting through.

The battle will continue at least until the G20 summit scheduled for two weeks in Bali, where Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Xi Jinping and perhaps even Vladimir Putin will be present, along with the great southern states. Westerners hope they can take advantage of the opportunity to show that Russia is isolated. But they don’t necessarily succeed.

There is an argument that could help them: in recent months, with great discretion, an operation has been organized to allow the export of a large part of Ukrainian cereals internally (on board trucks, barges and trains) with the participation of the countries bordering the Black Sea and the help of European countries, including France.

By now 60 percent of exported Ukrainian cereals follow this terrestrial path, escaping Russian blackmail despite great logistical difficulties. It is a crucial element that could convince the countries most in need of the fact that Westerners are not responsible for their hardships, indeed they are trying to find solutions. But it is not at all obvious that it will work.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)