(Original title: Voice of the former chairman of the Federal Reserve: Commodity prices will not cause inflation in the future! my country has discovered a predicted geological reserve of 1.268 billion tons of shale oil! Urea futures prices have fallen sharply)
Yesterday, the performance of the domestic futures market was divergent, with major contracts such as coking coal and coke hitting record highs one after another. As of yesterday afternoon’s close, red date futures rose nearly 6%, coking coal, coke, thermal coal, and fuel oil rose more than 3%, urea futures fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon fell more than 2%.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said yesterday that inflation is likely to ease in 2022. Commodity prices will not increase inflation in the future. Powell has done a good job.
A major breakthrough!my country discovers and predicts 1.268 billion tons of shale oil in geological reserves
On August 25, PetroChina Daqing Oilfield relied on independent innovation to discover and predict geological reserves of 1.268 billion tons of shale oil, marking a major breakthrough in my country’s shale oil exploration and development.
Daqing Oilfield is the largest oil production base on land in my country, and has produced more than 2.4 billion tons of crude oil over the past 60 years. The exploration and development of Gulong shale oil in Daqing Oilfield has achieved theoretical breakthroughs from continental shale oil generation to continental shale oil production. Breakthroughs in key engineering technologies for shale oil exploration and development are essential for ensuring national energy security and promoting the development of the shale oil and gas industry. It is of great significance.
Daqing Oilfield is expected to add 1 billion tons of proven geological reserves of shale oil during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the annual output of shale oil will reach more than 1 million tons.
“Double focus” goes up strongly
Yesterday, black-based futures represented by coking coal and coke continued to lead the market, with an increase of more than 3%.
Regarding the continued surge of coking coal and coke, Tao Rui, director of the black industry group of China Merchants Futures, said in an interview with a reporter from the Futures Daily that the core logic lies in the continuation of the shortage of coking coal and coke in the first half of this year, and July Since then, the supply and demand gap has sharply accelerated.
“Recently, the shortage of coking coal has driven the price of coke for six consecutive rounds of increases, and the current roulette rise is affected by the temporary closure of the Mongolian coal import port, and the market sentiment is relatively high, which has led to the price of coking coal and coke. Rose.” Shenwan Futures ferrous metals analyst Ding Zuchao said.
From a fundamental point of view, Ding Zuchao said that in terms of supply, the low coke output was mainly caused by the shortage of coking coal. Although the output of coking coal in the main producing areas increased in August, safety and environmental protection were strictly enforced in various regions, and the overall output was still at a low level. In July, 498,000 tons of coking coal were imported from Mongolia, a year-on-year decrease of 77.4%. However, the suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance is a short-term event, and its short-term impact on prices may be relatively limited. At the same time, the total inventory of “double focus” has continued to decline recently, further supporting prices.
Tao Rui also said that after the absence of Australian coal throughout the year, the Mongolia epidemic has triggered a continued low level of customs clearance. On the one hand, the internal mines are difficult to increase under the interference of safety supervision, environmental protection, water treatment and other factors. On the other hand, it is subject to the decline of resource quality, which makes it difficult to increase the production of low-sulfur main coke. “According to our calculations, the supply contraction may be more than 10%.”
From the demand side, Ding Zuchao believes that if the crude steel output does not increase year-on-year and the crude steel output will be reduced by about 50 million tons by the end of the year, the demand for coking coal will be reduced by about 27 million tons. Relieve vigorously.
Looking ahead, Ding Zuchao said that the market continues to deal with supply-side shortages. After the recent price hikes, the major contract discounts for coking coal and coke have been greatly repaired. At the same time, from a fundamental point of view, the most tight supply phase of the “double focus” has passed. Although the market sentiment is high, the further rise is not driven enough. It is expected that the market outlook will dominate the price trend.
“In the next few months, on the one hand, we need to continue to pay attention to the marginal relaxation of sentiment that may occur with the implementation of the guarantee of supply and production, which will lead to the price correction of coking coal; on the other hand, we need to pay attention to the unexpected downturn on the demand side. For example, the substantial reduction in coke oven production, the leaping downturn of real estate, etc.” Tao Rui said.
Urea continues to go down
Yesterday morning, the price of urea futures fell sharply. The biggest intraday drop of the main contract reached 3.82%, and then the low level oscillated within a narrow range. As of the afternoon’s close, the main 2201 urea futures contract closed at 2,180 yuan/ton, a drop of 3.24%.
In the view of Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures, the accelerated decline of urea futures yesterday has not only the continued deterioration of fundamentals, but also the cathartic factors of market sentiment.
From a fundamental point of view, Zhang Linglu said that since August, the urea supply and demand pattern has gradually turned to easing, and the situation has continued to deteriorate since the end of August. At the beginning of this week, a new 700,000 tons of urea plant in Anhui was put into operation. Later, a total of 2.6 million tons of urea production capacity in Shandong, Inner Mongolia and other regions was planned to be put into operation. Although the new capacity may not be implemented in time, it has already weakened market sentiment. pressure.
“Since early August, the domestic urea market has continued to decline sharply. The low-end ex-factory transaction prices in mainstream areas have fallen to less than 2,450 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline has exceeded 300 yuan/ton. Many companies temporarily set prices along the market. Four new sets of new production capacity were released, market confidence was impacted, and most manufacturers’ new orders were traded fairly.” Founder Mid-term Futures Urea Researcher Wei Chaoming said that as the higher spot prices continue to fall, the futures market is expected to follow in stages.
From the perspective of urea demand, Zhang Linglu said that the support for urea demand is also weakening. On the one hand, domestic agricultural demand has basically entered a vacant period since August; on the other hand, industrial demand has also shown a boycott mentality despite the continuous increase in the price of urea. The quotations of urea manufacturers could not be traded smoothly, which further promoted the downward loosening of spot prices.
According to data, as of August 25, the domestic price of urea in Shandong was 2,400 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from last week; the urea price in Henan was 2,470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last Friday.
“In addition to the weakening of domestic fundamentals, the arrival of bad news in the international market will undoubtedly worsen the current domestic urea market. Recently, there is news in the market that the international urea bidding in India in August has been delayed due to the funding problems of local Indian companies. , The domestic market originally had high expectations for the arrival of this round of label printing. At the same time, it was hoped that the news of the label printing could bring signs of stabilization and stabilization of domestic urea prices. However, with the news that the label was postponed, domestic urea Market pessimism has spread further, and the decline in futures prices has also entered an accelerated stage.” Zhang Linglu said.
At the same time, on August 7, the five major domestic institutions jointly issued a joint initiative on increasing the production and supply of the domestic fertilizer market and stabilizing market prices. Major companies expressed that they will work hard to reduce the export of chemical fertilizers and related production materials, and give priority to ensuring the domestic market supply.
From this point of view, Zhang Linglu said that even if the international urea bidding in India is implemented as scheduled, whether domestic companies can smoothly follow the bid and whether the domestic urea export volume can alleviate the current urea market loose situation is also worthy of attention. “In addition, what needs attention is that the market yesterday reported that the second round of the fourth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections was fully launched, involving 5 provinces in China. Although it is not clear whether the urea industry will be inspected, this The round of environmental inspections also involved Shandong, Sichuan and other major urea-producing regions, at least mentality may have a certain inhibitory effect on the decline of urea prices.”
Looking ahead, Zhang Linglu said that in the fourth quarter of this year, the supply side of urea is facing the traditional gas restriction cycle of natural gas, environmental protection inspections and other support, and the demand side is supported by agricultural top-dressing and chemical fertilizer out-sourcing. By then, the fundamentals of urea may improve, and the price may also change. There is a trend of stabilizing and even picking up.
Red dates rose sharply
After 5 consecutive days of consolidation, the red date futures prices rose sharply again yesterday and hit a new high since the listing. As of the close of yesterday afternoon, the red date futures 2201 contract closed at 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.77%.
In the view of Wang Jun, director of Founder’s Mid-term Futures Research Institute, the sharp rise of red dates this time is not supported by new bullish factors. It is still the bullish sentiment brought about by the expected production cut of red dates in the new season.
A reporter from the Futures Daily learned that in early July this year, the main red date planting areas in southern Xinjiang continued to experience high temperatures, resulting in fruit drop in most areas. In addition, the red date planting has been at a loss in the past two years. The situation happens from time to time. It is reported that some areas of the production area have been severely affected, and some jujube gardens have been less affected. Taking into account the unaffected areas and the generally affected areas, it is estimated that the national gray jujube output will be reduced by about 30%.
“But from the current point of view, the jujube trees in the main producing areas of Xinjiang are in the fruit swelling period, and there has been no extreme adverse weather affecting the growth of red jujubes recently. At the same time, the epidemic in the producing areas has also been brought under control. Nucleic acid tests in the whole city are negative, and Alar City has resumed normal living order, which will not affect the management of jujube orchards and the transportation of red dates.” Wang Jun said.
In addition, from the perspective of the supply and demand of red dates in the new season, the large carryover inventory of red dates and the relatively sluggish consumption situation this year are also worthy of attention.
From the perspective of carryover inventory, according to the official data of Xinjiang Fruit Industry, Xinjiang Fruit Industry has about 150,000 tons of gray dates in stock, and the social inventory in Cangzhou distribution centers and traders should be no less than 200,000 tons.
“As far as we know, the current annual output of Xinjiang Grey Jujube is about 1 million tons. In view of the supply and production reduction, although the gap in production reduction is difficult to completely make up, the large amount of carryover inventory has greatly eased the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In addition, since red dates are dry products, they can be stored for 3 years without problems under normal storage conditions, and the physical and chemical indicators of aged dates have not changed much, and the market acceptance is high. The formulation of delivery rules is also fully compatible with the spot market environment. As long as the existing inventory meets the production date requirements and relevant indicators in the delivery rules, you can register the new year’s red date futures warehouse receipt.” Green Dahua Futures Red Date analyst Wang Lili told reporters that even if there is an expectation of a reduction in production on the market supply side, Carry-over inventory can also be eased to a certain extent, effectively supplementing the amount available for delivery.
In terms of consumption, Wang Lili said that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the consumer side of jujubes has been greatly impacted. So far, the speed of delivery of goods in trade distribution centers and sales areas is still relatively weak. In addition, the summer is a low season for consumption, and poor market delivery has led to prices. It’s hard to get stronger. Recently affected by the epidemic, the Cangzhou jujube trading center has been closed again, which has further impacted the demand side. As a daily consumer product of the people, if the consumption period is missed, it will not be compensated in the later period.
Wang Jun also said that according to previous research, the Cangzhou jujube trading market in my country’s three major markets is still closed, and cold storage can be shipped normally, and the transaction has improved compared with July; the Xinzheng jujube trading market is affected by the epidemic prevention and control policy, and the goods are sold. The volume is lower than the same period last year; from the perspective of the volume of goods in the Guangzhou Ruyifang wholesale market, 77.42% of the merchant stalls have seen a significant year-on-year decline in the delivery speed of red dates. Among them, 12.9% of the stalls believe that the recent sales of red dates have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year.
“Overall, high carryover inventory and low consumption not only limit the increase in spot prices, but may also make the real supply gap far smaller than market expectations. At the same time, combined with current market estimates of open prices, red dates The futures price may have been overestimated.” Wang Jun said.
Editor in charge: Li Guolei
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