Home » A summit in Paris to give Libya a chance – Pierre Haski

A summit in Paris to give Libya a chance – Pierre Haski

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In six weeks, on December 24, the Libyans will be called to elect their president for the first time in history. You read that right: it is the first time that the seven million Libyans will have this opportunity, after having known the monarchy, forty years of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s regime and finally ten years of chaos and civil war after his death.

The aim of the international conference taking place on 12 November in Paris is to encourage this process and above all to ensure that the international community expresses itself in a united way. This result is far from obvious, because there will be many ulterior motives, divergent interests and a great deal of cynicism around the table. On the other hand, in recent years Libya has been the cruel theater of the world‘s rivalries.

Until the last moment, there will remain a great deal of uncertainty about the actual conduct of the presidential and legislative vote on December 24, which for sure will be far from perfect. However, many prefer imperfect elections to the total absence of elections, with the risk of relaunching a civil war that has been frozen for just over a year.

Field insurance
In Paris, the particularly problematic issue of the presence of foreign fighters on Libyan soil will be addressed: on the one hand, Turkish troops and Syrian mercenaries who support the old Tripoli authorities; on the other, the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner company, linked to the Kremlin, and other Syrian militiamen sided with Benghazi, in the east of the country.

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The Paris conference should reaffirm, as had already happened in the meeting organized in Berlin before the summer, the need for foreign forces to leave Libya. The Turkish and Russian representatives will sign the declaration, but are unlikely to withdraw their troops. Each of the two sides, in fact, considers the presence of soldiers as a sort of insurance in case of problems. At the latest, by 24 December we will be able to witness the departure of the Syrian fighters, without this changing the situation on the ground much.

Europeans and Americans, and even Libyans, would like all foreign fighters to go before the vote, but that is not a requirement for elections to take place.

Will the vote restore stability to Libya? There are many unknowns and it is too early to tell. The bad news came from the presidential candidacy of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the strongman from eastern Libya. Several countries, including the United States, intervened to ask him to give up, due to his role in the civil war and in particular the offensive launched against the capital Tripoli in 2019. Haftar, evidently, did not accept the advice.

The presence of the marshal raises strong doubts on the commitment of all parties to respect the verdict of the polls, also because the logistical problems will offer endless opportunities for dispute. The Paris conference is intended to create a semblance of international unity, rather fictitious in reality, to persuade the Libyan factions to give the electoral process a chance.

The stakes are enormous: the impact of Libyan destabilization, in fact, is being felt in the Sahel and in the Mediterranean, and the sufferings of Libyans (such as those of migrants hostage to conflicts) have lasted too long. The hope of success, however, remains minimal.

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(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)

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