Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in Tianjin on the 8th, as of Monday, there have been 31 local confirmed cases and 10 asymptomatic infections, and a total of about 75,000 people have been quarantined and managed; and Morgan Stanley’s latest report said: the epidemic may cause China‘s economic growth rate in the first quarter was lower than expected; German media said that China‘s strict epidemic prevention and city closure measures disrupted supply chains and stimulated German businessmen to withdraw from China.
The Central News Agency quoted Chinese media reports that Tianjin held a press conference on epidemic prevention and control on Monday, at which the above figures were announced, adding that other newly-preliminarily tested positive infections will be notified after further verification by the clinical expert team.
The positive infected people found so far are all the cases of the current round of epidemic and their related close contacts, as well as people in Jinnan District.
This round of epidemic in Tianjin was infected with the Omicron Omicron virus variant. Due to its fast spread and strong concealment, the Tianjin authorities decided to carry out nucleic acid screening for all employees on the 9th. Tianjin has a population of about 14 million. As of 3:00 p.m. on the 10th, 9,624,938 people have been sampled and 3,427,807 people have been tested.
According to Reuters, citing investment bank Morgan Stanley’s latest research report, if the new coronavirus variant Omicron spreads in China and causes many cities to block, the bank currently forecasts China’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2022. 4.9%, There will be a downside of 0.6-0.7 percentage points.
According to the report, the high spread of Omicron may lead China to strengthen prevention and control measures in many cities. The report believes that China‘s zero policy costs may exceed the benefits. It is expected that the Chinese government will rely on infrastructure capital expenditures in the first quarter, and Tax cuts in the second quarter to mitigate the impact.
The bank also said that as the supply chains of other Asian exporters may become more robust, the boost to China‘s economy from external demand may weaken, and it is estimated that China will need to further weaken the toxicity of the new coronavirus and improve the effectiveness of vaccines. The epidemic prevention policy will be adjusted only if it is satisfied, but it is believed that it is unlikely to happen before the second half of this year.
It is also reported that China‘s severe epidemic prevention and city closure measures disrupted supply chains, led to higher consumer prices in Europe, and stimulated German businessmen to adjust supply chains and plan to leave.
Germany’s Welt am Sonntag reported that Maximilian Butek, chief representative of the German Chamber of Commerce (AHK) in Shanghai, said that China‘s ongoing lockdown measures to curb travel and international flights have disrupted supply chains and led to German businessmen operating in China are pessimistic about the outlook.
Ma Mingbo pointed out that many manufacturers adjust their supply chains and look for alternative suppliers; he expects that the purchase price will rise significantly, and European customers and consumers must be prepared to deal with the problems of longer delivery times and higher prices.
Michael Hüther, director of the German Institute for Economic Research (Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft) in Cologne, analyzed that for the first time in decades, the industry has reflected on whether it is feasible to continue to rely on distant foreign supplies. “In the medium and long term, I think companies Procurement patterns and supply chains will be adjusted.”
Huth believes that the problem lies in China‘s draconian epidemic prevention measures. He said that as long as China continues to believe that the virus can be eradicated, and if one person is infected, all the cities will be closed, and the problems of the supply chain will not be solved.
According to a survey by the German Chamber of Commerce, it takes an average of nearly 2 years for German companies operating in the Asia-Pacific region to complete the adjustment of their business locations.
According to the survey results, in order to reduce the risk of supply chain, nearly one-fifth of German businessmen in China said that if the epidemic situation does not improve, they will consider leaving China this year or later.