June 20, 2022 10:07 am
A few days before the NATO summit scheduled in Madrid, the secretary general of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, gave a merciless summary of the situation in Ukraine: “We must prepare ourselves for the fact that the war could last years. We must not reduce our support for Ukraine, even if the cost will be high both from a military point of view and for the consequences on energy and food prices ”.
It is difficult to imagine a more worrying prospect: first of all for the Ukrainians, who are suffering the assaults of the Russian army and the devastation of their country, but also, and this is the meaning of Stoltenberg’s warning, for the whole world.
An old adage goes that starting a war is easier than stopping it. Vladimir Putin, who initially seemed to have aimed at a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian army and state, responded by continuously upping the ante. The Kremlin has had to change its military strategy, but is unwilling to surrender.
War speeches
Until? The question applies to both fronts. Putin claims to be at war not only against Ukraine but also against the West as a whole, so it would be paradoxical if he were satisfied with a territorial conquest of the Donbass.
But the Russian narrative about the war has changed so many times that at this point it is difficult to understand what Putin might regard as a “victory” or at least something he could sell as a victory to justify the sacrifices accepted by his government. On June 18, Putin, on the occasion of the forum in St. Petersburg, praised the “resistance” of the Russian economy in the face of Western sanctions. However, it is necessary to carefully observe the public opinion of the country, which despite being deprived of real information could at any time rebel against this war if the cost in terms of human lives becomes too high.
The shockwave of this war has just started
On the Ukrainian front, the will to resist is total, but it depends on the flow of weapons and Western economic support, and therefore on the maintenance of the political commitment at the highest level of the countries involved, as happened in the first four months of the conflict.
Evoking the price of energy and food products, the NATO secretary general touched on a sensitive issue: the public opinion of Western countries is overwhelmingly in favor of supporting Ukraine, but if the war goes on for years this support would be strained.
The shockwave of this war has just started, whether it is energy or food issues, the impact on the global economy or geopolitical balances.
On June 17, Putin phoned his friend Xi Jinping to wish him a birthday. For the occasion, the Chinese number one confirmed his support for Russia’s political objective, which is to question the international balance of forces, which is too favorable to Westerners. This front will have to be kept under close attention and for a long time.
In four months we have had an appetizer of the destabilizing potential of this conflict. With a lasting war on the doorstep of Europe, whose impact is global, it will inevitably be necessary to adapt: war economy, political instability and above all a commitment to preserve solidarity which risks becoming a collateral victim of a protracted conflict, and with it the sense of this war.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)