Settlements in crisis countries give birth to various settlements, some of which led to a sustainable state of stability, some of which generated wars and perpetuated divisions, and some of them led to the fragmentation of homelands, in our case the settlement will give birth to a corpse!
That is, by God, a corpse, and inside it will perpetuate an unprecedented state of instability and a vortex of partisan and tribal divisions, which may lead to the fragmentation of the homeland and the threats present. How is this?
To understand this, we say: Suppose that the third Qaht government, which was founded on the fragments of three parties and the remnants of its name, the transition forces, with the support of the army leadership, rapid support and the international community, with the complete exclusion of any other political forces; These parties will form an exclusive government of three fragmented parties, Aweish and Askar.
After the formation of that government, the stage of deep surgeries will begin, and as announced, deep surgeries will be carried out by activists in the judiciary, the army, intelligence, banks and the entire civil service under the banner of dismantling. Tri- and quadruple international community.
Suppose that government, with those descriptions and that program, was formed and became a fait accompli, so what awaits it on the other side? Here is a scenario of what will happen if the settlement is completed in the same scenario that is currently taking place.
The front opposing the settlement government will begin the resistance process. At that time, the streets of Khartoum will be filled with chants (against the agents and the government of ambassadors). This is a chant that will unite under its banner for the first time the Islamists, communists, radicals, and Baathists, the Democratic Bloc led by the Unionist (Maulana branch), the armed struggle movements, eastern, western and northern Sudan, the families of the martyrs, and the resistance committees. !
This broad and diverse front will constitute an existential threat to the government of a monopoly (ruthless and the military), which will be confused in the methods of dealing with it, as it is impossible to suppress it in light of a government afflicted with internal conflicts with a narrow base, and it is certain that it will not be able to control broad and diverse opposition movements whose tactics are different, if it is unable to suppress it. Its movement will be paralyzed, and it will not be able to implement any of its programmes. Khartoum will become a scene of permanent chaos, in which the settlement government will not be able to rule easily. That scene in Khartoum is a paralyzed government.
As for the scene in eastern Sudan, what will happen is approaching a full-fledged rebellion, whose agenda is now escalating and its options are multiplying in light of the raging tribal conflict within the region.
The issue will go beyond the closure of the port and the closure of the main road, as this is announced and prepared for. But the tragedy is that we will witness three dangerous phenomena. The first is the internal conflicts between the tribal components of the East. They will worsen, supported by conflicting parties in the center.
The second phenomenon is the escalation of the demand for self-determination and the mobilization of public opinion with secession. This is a call that is now being promoted and supported by neighboring countries.
The third phenomenon is that we will witness the birth of armed organizations and movements in the East with political demands.
In view of the situation that will explode under a government that does not have a vision to solve it politically, the only solution becomes to wage a fierce war to subjugate the rebellious region against the government of (Qahhokar).. The question is: What are those organized forces that will suppress the rebellion there?
It is certain that the police are powerless to do anything about the rebellion of the East, and it is not among its tasks, and the army will not send its planes to annihilate the Beja.
The organized force that is thought to be able to fight a war is the Rapid Support Forces because it has the necessary capacity and because its leader confirmed that this settlement is under his personal protection, and thus he will be the main supporter of the settlement government and he is the candidate force to suppress the rebellion in the East. In fact, the Rapid Support Forces are the last to think of fighting in the East. And the Rapid Support Forces will not fight a war of others for free, and why would they? If she loses her mind and is pushed by others outside to commit this foolishness on her own, she will face the rebellion and the army together.. Then add to that that the Rapid Support Forces do not have the actual ability to wage a long war of attrition in the east, let alone the environment, the terrain, and the position of the neighboring powers.. The call is directed to the new Rapid Support theorists to return History of wars in the East to take the necessary lessons.
If a war breaks out there, the parties to the government will be paralyzed in the east, just as it paralyzed its movement in the center.
In western Sudan, the scene will be surreal, as the armed struggle movements that were conspired against and excluded from the settlement that effectively overthrew the Juba Agreement will not allow any government formed by them insolent from the center to operate in any of the states of Darfur.. The situation will be a continuous hell for any government that is appointed there.
The suppression of the broad, healthy opposition that will be carried out by the movements of Minawi, Jibril, and Musa Hilal, allied with the Islamists, the radicals, and the oppressed tribes there, will not succeed. Opposition to the impudent government will spread throughout Darfur, and it cannot be ruled out that tragic developments and an escalation of tribal strife will take place, and it will not be far from the return of war again to Darfur. Worse than it was, who will face the peaceful resistance there and the possible armed rebellion?
The government has learned its lesson and will not risk waging any new war in Darfur.. Who among the military leaders will lead a war there when he has seen with his own eyes what happened to the leaders who fought wars there? And for what?
Rapid Support knows that there is no victor in the wars in Darfur, and realizes that everyone who ignited a war there will reap its ashes. In the end, the government will become incapable of carrying out any of its tasks, but rather that the Darfur regions will be effectively out of its control.
What will happen in the north?
It will be taken over by the Allied Tribes Council, which is now active in the region remarkably to the point of forming a declared military shield, and the Islamists allied with the tribes will secretly create unbearable unrest for the fragile settlement government.. It is possible to simply paralyze commercial activity and close all crossings on the northern road.. You see from that Who will send his forces to fight the people of the north for the settlement government?
No one is sure.
Another scenario.. If we assume, for the sake of argument, that the leaders of the regular apparatus will look at the group of activists in the settlement government and Volker, as they dismantle the army and intelligence one by one and hand them over to the unknown, then what is the position of the silent bloc within the army and security of officers and soldiers? Does anyone think they will wait for their necks to be tightened on the guillotine?
All of this is happening in light of a deteriorating economic situation, general recession, hell in all aspects of life, escalating demands, and an international community that makes miraculous promises every day.. Qahat activists expect that the West and the countries of the region will support the settlement government as soon as it is announced, and that will relieve the pressure and popular anger on it, that is just an illusion, for all Those who bet on the West caught the wind.
Thus, as you saw above, the settlement will give birth to a lifeless corpse, and the best that can happen to the bodies of settlements is to honor them by burying them sooner and not leaving them in the streets and corridors of offices to rot, as happened to the bodies of martyrs in morgues. .
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