1. Weather
1. Domestic situation
Heavy rainfall in Jilin, Liaoning and other places：From 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, northeastern Qinghai, central Gansu, central and northern Shanxi, southeastern Beijing, central Tianjin, eastern Hebei, southeastern Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, southeastern Jilin and western Sichuan Basin, eastern Yunnan, southern Guangxi, Guangdong Heavy rain or torrential rain occurred in parts of the central and western regions, northern Zhejiang, central Hainan Island, and central Taiwan Island. Heavy rain (100-242 mm) occurred in Dalian and Dandong, Liaoning, and the maximum hourly rainfall in some of the above-mentioned areas was 60-106 mm; The daily precipitation of 2 meteorological observation stations broke through historical extremes.
The high temperature in the southern region continues:Yesterday, high temperatures above 37°C occurred in the Sichuan Basin, southern Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan, and central and southern Shaanxi. The eastern Sichuan Basin, southern Shaanxi, northwestern and eastern Hubei, central and southeastern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, Zhejiang The temperature in the central and northern regions is 40-43℃, and the temperature in Beibei District of Chongqing is 44.5℃.
2. Foreign situation
Heavy rainfall in India, West Africa and other places: There are moderate to heavy rains, local heavy rains or Heavy rain, accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
High temperatures continued in West Asia, North Africa, the southern United States and other places: West Asia, southern Central Asia, Indus Plain, North Africa, northern West Africa, southern Western Europe, western southern Europe, the Midwest of the United States, northern Mexico, and central Brazil experienced high temperatures above 35°C. Among them, the Arabian Peninsula, the Iranian Plateau, western Spain, The daily maximum temperature in Algeria, Egypt, the southern United States and other places reached 39 to 42 °C, and the local temperature exceeded 45 °C.
Second, the key weather forecast
1. Domestic key weather
（1）Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and other places have convective weather
From the 15th to the 16th, there will be convective weather in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places. It is expected that from 08:00 on August 15 to 08:00 on August 16, there will be heavy rain or heavy rain (25-90 mm) in parts of eastern Jilin, eastern Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and other places. Some of the above areas are accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation (the maximum hourly rainfall is 30-60 mm, and the local area can exceed 80 mm), and there are local strong convective weather such as thunderstorms, strong winds or hail.
In addition, from the 17th to the 19th, there will be a new round of precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China, northern China, southern Liaoning, Shandong, Heilongjiang and other places. The above-mentioned areas have moderate to heavy rain, local heavy rain, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, Strong convective weather such as thunderstorms, strong winds or hail. From the 20th to the 22nd, there will also be a moderate to heavy rain process in the eastern part of the Northwest, North China, and Northeast China.
（2）Sichuan BasinThere are persistent high temperatures in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and other places
In the next 10 days, there will be persistent high temperature weather in the Sichuan Basin, Jianghan, Jianghuai, and Jiangnan, and the cumulative number of high temperature days will reach 7 to 10 days. Periods of high temperature weather will also occur in Henan, southern Shandong, northern Jiangsu and Anhui; the highest temperature in the above-mentioned areas can reach 37-39 °C, and the local temperature can exceed 40 °C.
It is estimated that during the day on August 15, Xinjiang Turpan Basin and Southern Xinjiang Basin, central and southern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, central and southern Hebei, Beijing, southern Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Sichuan The highest temperature in central and eastern, Chongqing, eastern Guizhou, northern Guangxi, and northern Guangdong will be 35-39 °C. Among them, eastern Sichuan, central and western Chongqing, southern Shaanxi, southeastern Henan, central and southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, and southeastern Hubei The highest temperature in some parts of China and northwestern China, northern Hunan, northeastern Jiangxi, central and northern Zhejiang, and the Turpan Basin in Xinjiang can reach over 40°C (Figure 1).Central Meteorological ObservatoryAugust 15th at 06:00continuePost high temperatureredcolor warning。
Figure 1 Forecast map of high temperature fall areas across the country (08:00-20:00 on August 15)
2. Foreign key weather
(1) Heavy precipitation in the Korean Peninsula, Japan, West Africa, Central America and other places
In the next three days, there will be moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in parts of northern India, the Indo-China Peninsula, the Korean Peninsula, the Japanese islands, West Africa, northern Central Africa, the central United States, central and northern Mexico, and northern South America. , Central West Africa and other places have heavy rainstorms locally, and some of the above-mentioned areas are accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
(2) Continued high temperature in West Asia and North Africa
In the next three days, high temperature weather above 35°C will continue in West Asia, southern Central Asia, North Africa, northern West Africa, southern Western Europe, southern Europe, the Midwest of the United States, northern Mexico, and central Brazil. The daily maximum temperature in some areas exceeded 42°C.
3. Specific forecast for the next three days
From 08:00 on August 15th to 08:00 on the 16th,Parts of eastern Jilin, southeastern Heilongjiang, southern Shandong, eastern Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, southern Yunnan, and northwestern Tibet experienced moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains (50-90 mm). There are 4-5 winds in parts of the Liaodong Peninsula and Shandong Peninsula (see Figure 2). There will be southwesterly winds of magnitude 6 to 7 and gusts of magnitude 8 in the central Yellow Sea to northwesterly winds of magnitude 4 to 5 and gusts of magnitude 6, and southwesterly winds of magnitude 6 to 7 and gusts of magnitude 8 in the southern Yellow Sea.
Figure 2 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 15th – 08:00 on August 16th)
From 08:00 on August 16th to 08:00 on the 17th,There are moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains (50-90 mm) in parts of the mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, central and southern Henan, central and northern Anhui, and central and northern Jiangsu. There are 4-5 winds in parts of eastern Inner Mongolia, Liaodong Peninsula, southern Xinjiang Basin, Shandong Peninsula and other places (see Figure 3).
Figure 3 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 16th – 08:00 on August 17th)
From 08:00 on August 17th to 08:00 on the 18th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of northwestern Heilongjiang, Hetao area of Inner Mongolia, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, Ningxia, northern Shaanxi, northern Shanxi, northwestern Hebei, southern coastal Guangxi, southeastern Guangxi, and eastern Hainan Island. Among them, Inner Mongolia There are heavy rains (50-90 mm) in parts of the Hetao area, northern Shaanxi, and northern Shanxi. There are 4-6 winds in parts of Inner Mongolia, northern Shaanxi and other places (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 17th – 08:00 on August 18th)
4. Influence and Concern
1. Pay attention to the adverse effects of continuous high temperature weather on energy supply, human health, agricultural production and the development of drought in the Sichuan Basin, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and other places, and pay attention to preventing snowmelt floods in the mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang;
2. Pay attention to the secondary disasters and strong convection hazards that may be caused by local heavy rainfall in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui;
3. From the 17th to the 19th, the rainfall process in the eastern part of Northwest China, North China, and Northeast China, and the rainfall area overlapped with that from the 13th to the 15th. Pay attention to the adverse impact of the rainfall superposition effect.