Behind the ‘difficult birth’ of the China-Pacific Islands Foreign Ministers’ meeting – BBC News

Dr Marc Lanteigne, an associate professor of political science at Norway’s Arctic University, who has long studied China and Pacific island politics, told the BBC Chinese that the last Trump administration in the United States was almost ignoring the South Pacific, as well as Australia’s The successive foreign policy mistakes of the previous John Morrison administration have provided a window for China to deepen its involvement in the Pacific.

Wang Yi will visit South Pacific island countries from May 26 to June 4. When Wang Yi set off, the new Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong also visited Fiji at the same time. China-Australia relations have plunged into a cold winter due to factors such as the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and Wang Yi’s trip has been interpreted by observers as a move to check and balance Australia.

The second China-Pacific Islands Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on May 30 is regarded as the highlight of Wang Yi’s trip. General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a written speech: “China has always adhered to the principle that all countries, big or small, are equal, and uphold the correct concept of justice, benefit, sincerity, amity and sincerity to develop friendly relations with Pacific island countries. No matter how the international situation changes, China will always be a Pacific island country. Like-minded good friends of the island country, good brothers who stand together through thick and thin, and good partners who move forward side by side.”

Before the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, Reuters first reported that China circulated two draft documents in English to the 10 South Pacific allies within the mechanism of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, namely “China-Pacific Island Countries Common Development Vision” and “China-Pacific Island Countries Common Development”. Five-Year Plan (2022-2026).

According to the documents published in the ABC report, President Panuelo in an official letter to “brothers and sisters in the Pacific” clarifying Micronesia’s position on the two Chinese documents, which serve as President Panuelo’s Attachments to the letter are sent to all heads of countries and territories to whom the letter is sent. He described China’s draft document as “essentially a pre-formulated and confirmed joint communiqué or meeting outcome document”.

In his letter, President Panuelo specifically pointed out that the foreign ministers of many South Pacific countries are actually held concurrently by the prime minister or the prime minister, which means that they have the ability to decide whether to accept the Chinese text.

Dr Anna Powles, a senior lecturer in security studies at Massey University in New Zealand, said it was no surprise that the document was not accepted for publication by the Foreign Ministers’ Council.

Speaking to BBC World News, Dr Bowers said: “There is a lot of unease among Pacific island leaders about this joint statement, some of it, and China’s attempts to make sure they agree with it. Disturbed by the statement.”

According to this “Vision for Common Development”, China hopes to provide millions of dollars in aid to ten countries, and also hopes to establish a free trade area (FTA) to allow these South Pacific countries to enter China’s market of 1.4 billion people.

Under the same development vision, China will train local police for the ten South Pacific countries, build forensic laboratories, participate in local cybersecurity, smart customs, expand political ties, conduct sensitive ocean mapping, and increase access to local natural resources .

The “Vision for Common Development” also proposes to allow Pacific island countries to promote scientific and technological reform, economic development and national security construction in a “balanced model”, while also expressing support for climate change and medical and health work.

Micronesia’s President Panuelo said in the letter that his cabinet urged him to “deliberately consider” the content of China’s proposal, and in particular believed that China’s proposal to establish a free trade zone was “dishonest.”

President Panuelo did not elaborate further on why his cabinet views the FTA proposal this way, but noted that they believe Micronesia must avoid giving China the illusion that it can “do whatever it wants” in the region.

Larissa Stünkel, a researcher at the ISDP Stockholm China Centre at the Swedish Institute for Security and Development Policy, told BBC Chinese that most island nations in the South Pacific are seeking to regain their footing from the economic shock caused by the new crown epidemic. China is clearly able to support this. This economic problem could be jeopardized if the Vision for Shared Development is challenged too clearly.

“We do not seek to create unsustainable levels of debt,” Australian Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian said while in Fiji. Agence France-Presse thought this was a remark directed at China.

Qin Sheng, an assistant researcher at the Australian, New Zealand and South Pacific Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Shanghai The Paper that from the perspective of institutionalization, it is an inevitable process for China and South Pacific island countries to move from economic cooperation to economic and security two-wheel drive. The South Pacific island countries are an important development direction of the “Belt and Road”. Against this background, it is necessary for China to pay attention to the security situation of the South Pacific island countries, which is also a responsible attitude for the economic interests of both sides.

Dr Lanmark told the BBC Chinese via email that, in his view, the policing and internal security cooperation proposed by the “Vision for Common Development” seems to open the door to more Chinese civilian ship traffic entering and leaving the region, which also includes The possibility of navigating warships cannot be ruled out.

Dr Lanmark believes Xi is eager to win on foreign policy ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China later this year, against the backdrop of China being sidelined from Europe for its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the end, the foreign ministers of various countries failed to approve the two documents at the foreign ministers’ meeting held on May 30. “We couldn’t make a decision because we didn’t have enough time to study the document,” said Samoa’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa.

Zhao Lijian, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, commented: “This is a process of continuous discussion, and not every meeting has to issue a common document. At this foreign ministers’ meeting, all parties reached a new consensus on this, which is a step towards a final agreement. An important step. All parties agree to continue active and pragmatic discussions and strive to reach more consensus.”

Beijing finally issued the “China’s Position Paper on Mutual Respect and Common Development with Pacific Island Countries”, which listed 15 visions and assumptions, including “adhering to the principle that countries, regardless of size, strength, rich or poor, are equal”, “respect for the independence of Pacific island countries, Sovereignty and territorial integrity, support Pacific island countries to independently choose a development path that suits their national conditions, and adhere to non-interference in the internal affairs of Pacific island countries”, and “fully recognize the vulnerability of Pacific island countries in the face of the climate change crisis, and help island countries build climate-resilient blue economy”.

China’s official Xinhua News Agency quoted Wang Yi as saying: “Some people have recently questioned why China is so active in supporting and helping South Pacific island countries. I would like to make it clear to everyone that China is a major developing country and a responsible major country, and we not only help and support South Pacific island countries. Island countries, but also help support the vast developing countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, etc. We are not only like this today, but also in the past.”

According to Xinhua News Agency, Wang Yi announced that China is willing to continue to build six new cooperation projects, namely, the emergency material reserve, the cooperation center for climate change, the poverty reduction and development cooperation center, the agricultural cooperation demonstration center, the disaster prevention and mitigation cooperation center, and the Juncao technology demonstration center. platform.

Zhao Chunshan, honorary professor of the Mainland China Institute of Taiwan’s Tamkang University, wrote to Feng Media: “From an economic point of view, the South Pacific island country has a relatively small population and relatively lagging economic development, but it has a vast exclusive economic zone and potential for fisheries and seabed resources. Huge. In particular, the Pacific island countries are located in the southward extension of Xi Jinping’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, and are regarded by the CCP as important economic and trade partners.”

In his letter, President Panuelo warned that China’s proposed plan would bring South Pacific allies closer to Beijing, “essentially linking our entire economy and society with them.”

The 10 countries that have diplomatic relations with China in the South Pacific have different backgrounds: the Cook Islands, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Niue are the Commonwealth countries with the Queen of England as their monarch, while the Cook Islands and Niue have a confederation with New Zealand; Tonga Commonwealth countries with their own monarchs; Fiji, Kiribati and Vanuatu are republics that have joined the Commonwealth.

Samoa is a former German colony. It became a New Zealand mandate after World War I and became independent in 1962; the Federated States of Micronesia was ruled by Spain, Germany and Japan successively. After World War II, it became a United States mandate and became independent in 1986, but the United States continued to The Treaty of Free Association is responsible for the country’s defense.

Dr. Lanmark told the BBC Chinese via email that, in his view, the issue of the leaked draft of the “Vision for Common Development” document that concerned him more was China’s proposal to establish a “comprehensive strategic partnership”.

“It’s a vague formulation that could leave room for interpretation in the future and could give Beijing a ‘tacit veto’ over the internal affairs of its Pacific partners.”

Steinkel pointed out to the BBC Chinese that the sovereignty of this region that has been colonized by the West for a long time must not be damaged. This is the key point that the outside world must recognize. It is a huge mistake to assume that these Pacific island countries are only pawns in the game of great powers.

Steinkel said Samoa’s prime minister, Fia May, said when she was elected last year that she would shelve plans for China’s proposed $100 million megaport in Vaiusu Bay because “the government must allow more Urgent projects are prioritized,” President Panuelo’s remarks echoed the shared sentiments of the South Pacific region.

Dr Lanmark said it was never in the interest of the South Pacific island governments to be too close to any ally outside the region, which was happy to balance the relationship between traditional economic partners and newcomers. For South Pacific island nations, traditional partners include Australia, New Zealand, the United States and the European Union, while newcomers include China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Japan and India.

Micronesia has reacted particularly strongly, which Lanmark believes is related to the Free Association Treaty between the country and the United States, which gives Micronesia less room to maneuver in dealing with China.

Dr. Li Kexian, an associate professor at the Institute of International Strategy at Tokyo International University, told BBC Chinese: “Micronesia is only about 700 kilometers away from Guam, where the U.S. military is stationed. Existing relationships are left out, or a choice needs to be made between the U.S. and China, and it remains to be seen whether it will be both.”

But Li Kexian also believes that China’s proposal may have its appeal: “Other countries may not have Micronesia’s consideration, but the emergence of China has given these countries alternative options outside the Western society, especially China’s aid usually does not come with condition.”

Fiji’s actions may have verified the “left and right” operation mentioned by Li Kexian. Fiji’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Frank Bainimarama said after meeting Wang Yi on May 30: “I hope everyone also understands that for those communities sleeping under rising sea levels, For those who have lost their jobs because of the pandemic, or for families who have been hurt by skyrocketing commodity prices, the geopolitical score means little.”

The Fiji Times, published on May 31, quoted Joji Kotobalavu, a lecturer at the University of Fiji Law School and former permanent secretary of the Prime Minister’s Office, as saying that the most immediate security threat in Fiji is not China, but climate change and its associated sea-level rise.

“The Western powers are historically and geographically close to the Pacific island nations, and we will always see them as the first circle of friends,” Koto Barawi said. “But they should never assume that because they see China as the primary national security threat, Fiji and other Pacific island nations should view China in the same way.”

The South Pacific is seen as Australia’s “back garden” for a long time. Dr. Li Kexian pointed out to the BBC Chinese: “In recent years, China’s influence in the region has increased. For example, in 2018, Huawei plans to lay a submarine communication cable for the Solomon Islands. Only then did Australia and New Zealand wake up. After China has established a circle of friends in the region with moderate economic and diplomatic means, China’s influence in the region will only increase unabated.”

Ms. Steinkel of the Stockholm China Center also pointed out to the BBC Chinese that the concept of “Australia’s back garden” has been fiercely criticized by leaders of Pacific countries, who regard it as an affront to the sovereignty of countries.

Wang Yi also commented on this statement after meeting Solomon Islands Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele on May 26: “Pacific island countries are all sovereign and independent countries, not someone’s ‘backyard’; they all have the right to make their own choices. , rather than being a vassal of others. Any smear attack on the normal security cooperation of the China Institute will not see the light of the sun, and any interference and sabotage will not succeed.”

Ms. Steinkel of the Stockholm China Center and Dr. Lanmark of the Norwegian University of the Arctic Circle recently jointly wrote an article in the magazine “The Diplomat” to comment on the military cooperation treaty between Solomon Islands and China. They pointed out: “Will the security agreement between China and Solomon Islands be Giving the entire region the image of a zone of strategic contention, perhaps even leading to additional security pacts and armament hoarding, is the question now to be asked about the future of this security pact.”

“This is China’s quest to increase its influence in the region, and Australia has clearly been the security partner of choice since World War II,” said new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Albanis said Australia “needs to respond” by investing additional funds in the South Pacific for defence training, maritime security and infrastructure to cope with the effects of climate change.

New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern also said: “We strongly believe that we have the means and capabilities in the Pacific to respond to any existing security challenges, and New Zealand is willing to do so.”

Prime Minister Ardern’s remarks were partly reflected in late 2021 when riots broke out in the Chinatown of Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands. Australia once sent troops and police to the area to quell the chaos. If the joint statement of the Foreign Ministers’ Council proposed by China is accepted by countries including the Solomon Islands, and similar incidents occur in the future, the local ones may be replaced by the Chinese public security, armed police and the People’s Liberation Army.

Dr Lanmark told the BBC Chinese commentary that Beijing has made no secret of its belief that the Morrison government has created a chasm between Australia and the Pacific island nations, making China appear better able to deal with the region’s unique economic and security concerns, including internal Security and Climate Change.

Lanmark pointed to the Morrison government’s ignorance of the impact of climate change on the region as the worst of its many missteps. The Canberra government led by Elbanese has a lot to fix, but time is limited. And Beijing is keen to portray Australia as a country obsessed with a zero-sum “Cold War mentality” and willing to act as a proxy for US interests. Once China succeeds, Australia’s influence will be far less than it used to be. Therefore, it is not unreasonable for Australia to be wary of the status quo of China’s expansion in the South Pacific.

State Department spokesman Ned Price said on May 26: “We do not believe that the introduction of security forces from the People’s Republic of China and their practices will help any Pacific island nation. Doing so will only contribute to regional and international tensions. The situation has added fuel to the fire, fueling fears that China is extending its internal machinery into the Pacific Ocean.”

Price added: “It is worth mentioning that in fisheries, resource management, development assistance and, more recently, security operations, the People’s Republic of China has a habit of providing vague, vague agreements with little transparency or regional consultation. .”

Referring back to Micronesia’s strong response to China’s draft “Vision for Common Development”, Dr. Li Kexian pointed out: “Micronesia is only about 700 kilometers away from Guam, where the US is stationed, and has signed the Free Association Treaty with the US. ”, the country is worried that if most of its neighboring countries turn to China, they will be left out because of their existing relations with the United States, or they will need to choose between the United States and China.

“The country should also face considerable pressure from the United States. During the Trump era, the United States talked about the Indo-Pacific strategy, and Micronesia has been highly concerned by the United States.”

President Panuelo’s letter specifically pointed out the possibility of Pacific island countries being involved in a tripartite conflict between the United States, China and Taiwan.

“Beyond sovereignty, China’s control over our communications infrastructure, our territorial waters and resources within, and the practical impact of our security space adds to the fact that China is in conflict with Australia, Japan, the United States and New Zealand,” Panuelo said. Chance.”

The Solomon Islands and Kiribati have moved from Taipei to Beijing in recent years. So far, in the South Pacific, only the British Commonwealth countries Tuvalu and Nauru, and Palau and the Marshall Islands, which have a “Free Association Treaty” with the United States, remain Taiwan’s four diplomatic allies.

Cui Jinglin, deputy spokesperson of Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, commented on Wang Yi’s visit and the draft joint statement of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was exposed by the media, saying: “China has been promoting the Belt and Road policy around the world for many years, which has led Sri Lanka and other countries to fall into a debt trap, economic and social development. There has been a major crisis. The recent Chinese government’s military strategic expansion ambitions have also raised tensions in the Pacific region, as is the case with the Security Cooperation Framework Agreement signed between China and the Solomon Islands.”

“The (Taiwan) Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on all countries in the region to recognize the real purpose of the Chinese government’s aid and the ambition of authoritarian expansion. Only freedom and democracy can bring true peace and stability… Taiwan is also willing to work with countries in the region and countries with similar ideas. Work together for a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Pacific region.”

Lanmark agrees that China’s “Vision for Common Development” will bring additional pressure on Taiwan, including fears of encircling Taiwan once China successfully deepens its naval deployment in the Central and South Pacific.

In the Guardian article, Dr Anna Powers of Massey University in New Zealand also noted that the Pacific Islands Forum will meet in July at a time when the group’s unity is being severely tested. Five member states withdrew last year, leaving only Tuvalu and Nauru in support of Taiwan in the forum.

“A weak forum is good for China, but it may inspire regional unity,” Dr Powers said.

Ms. Steinkel of the Stockholm China Center also agreed that Beijing is trying to sell the “Vision for Shared Development” to Pacific island countries at this time, which is not unrelated to the increased support of Taiwan’s remaining allies. Beijing fears this will weaken its claims to Taiwan.

“At the end of the day, the COVID-19 aid that Taipei has sent to its diplomatic allies has been well received,” Steinkel told the BBC in Chinese via email. Furthermore, the Pacific island countries have long supported Taiwan’s participation in international organizations such as the United Nations World Health Assembly. This support is further strengthened by the Taipei Act, which rewards countries that support Taiwan while implying that it will retaliate against countries that do not support Taiwan.”

After the draft of the “Vision for Common Development” was exposed, Dr. Lin Tinghui, deputy secretary general of the Taiwan Institute of International Law, who was called a “green camp” scholar by the Chinese mainland media, wrote an article in the “Freedom Times” warning: “After Wang Yi’s visit, it is equivalent to an official announcement between China and foreign countries. In the competition of island countries, it will enter an epoch-making stage, that is, the competition mode equivalent to the Cold War.”

“When Taiwan can extend a hand of cooperation and friendship in a timely manner to maintain the democratic alliance value of the second island chain and the third island chain, the vast Pacific Ocean is a safe space for Taiwan’s strategic depth, and when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army fully appears in the Pacific Ocean , Taiwan’s security will be threatened.”

In an interview with Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao, Qiu Kunxuan, an honorary professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, pointed out that the security agreement between the Institute shows that Beijing is actively expanding South Pacific relations to counter the Indo-Pacific strategy. The failure to reach a security agreement at this foreign ministers meeting cannot rule out the possibility of US-Australia intervention, but it does not mean that mainland China’s diplomacy in the South Pacific region has failed.

As for how the “Vision for Common Development” can be successful, Dr. Li Kexian of Tokyo International University said to the BBC Chinese analysis: “The most important thing is to see whether China will pay lip service to the truth. In addition, it will depend on whether China will use equality and reciprocity, not one The big powers guide the South Pacific island countries from the top and the bottom. Of course, the last reason depends on whether the United States, Australia and New Zealand will have follow-up governments to alienate these countries from China.”

Compared with Australia, New Zealand and the United States, China is always a newcomer in the South Pacific, according to Dr. Lanmark of Norway’s Arctic University.

“China cannot buy experience, so it still needs to better understand the specific economic and environmental concerns of its Pacific partners. Much of this is also due to the fact that the U.S. ‘Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’ is attracting new members and creating new opportunities for cooperation and investment, and How successful is it to extend it to the Pacific region. Not least because Washington has a chance to create a new regime in 2024, a chance to overthrow all current initiatives.”

“Whether China will actually build a base in the Solomon Islands or elsewhere is almost irrelevant, as the bigger question is how much this diplomatic offensive (a vision of shared development) will expand Beijing’s presence,” Lanmark told BBC Chinese. Influence in regional affairs – political, economic and strategic.”

Steinkel, a researcher at the Stockholm China Center, believes that climate change countermeasures may be the key to victory.

“If Beijing succeeds in seducing Pacific island nations into believing that it will be a key partner on climate change, such a regional security mechanism that penetrates the most important security areas in the region may work,” Steinkel told the BBC in Chinese.