Snow is on the way. The rain as well. It will flake at the highest altitudes, from 1500 meters up, especially above 2000. At least for half a meter, according to the forecasts that are being perfected at Arpav in Arabba. Instead, it will rain at lower altitudes, but not to the extent that would be sufficient to restore the hydrological balance.
“Throughout the month of October”, Bruno Renon of the Arpav of Belluno says, “35 to 70 millimeters of rain fell, compared to an average of 120-220, with locations where it rained only for a fifth of the total multi-year medium (for example in Sant’Antonio Tortal, above Trichiana). And, mind you, most of the rain fell only in two half days, in the morning of October 22nd and in the afternoon of the 24th ».
Since the beginning of the year, the deficit in the pluviometric balance has strengthened, with negative differences anywhere between 20 and 45%, with the exception of some locations in the extreme north of the province, such as Santo Stefano di Cadore, where rainfall was even “Normal”. “In the last 36 years, 2022 is confirming itself as one of the four driest, together with 1990, 1997 and 2003”, Renon says.
The snow is coming
There will be enough snow, but beware, it doesn’t necessarily last. The soils on which it falls are very hot, the month of October recorded sustained temperatures, and, in any case, the summer of San Martino could arrive next week. It will also be dangerous snow, experts say, in the sense that, falling on slopes that are anything but cold, it could slide downstream. Therefore, you must pay the utmost attention to the danger of avalanches by crossing the roads below.
And no one thinks – it is stated by the Alpine Rescue – to start some ski mountaineering activities in advance. In other times, the escape to the Marmolada would be a foregone conclusion, but since the day of the tragedy 4 months ago there is an ordinance of the Municipality of Canazei which prohibits access to the glacier. Yesterday afternoon, the bulletin of the Arpav of Arabba limited itself to signaling, in red, that «from the late evening of Thursday 3 and during the course of Friday 4 there is a phase of disturbed weather, at times unstable. Widespread precipitation is expected with consistent quantities, locally abundant in mountainous and foothill areas. Until the first part of Friday, sirocco reinforcements on the coast and from the southern quadrants at high altitudes ”. Therefore, he did not specify the size of the snow. But the half meter will be confirmed today. Indeed, with a few more centimeters: 55 cm. More precisely, on Friday, from 35 to 55 mm above 2 thousand meters, and up to 75 above 2200 meters.
Will there be enough snow to prepare the ski slopes? «Plan with enthusiasm», suggests Sonia Menardi of the Ista company, which manages, among other things, the slopes of Col Gallina, which are usually the first to open the season. «Fifty centimeters, in these conditions, is a bit short, because after the passage of the cross-country snowcat there would be little left. We would need less warm soils and colder temperatures. And don’t forget that the summer of San Martino will arrive sometime ».
The Col Gallina, among other things, is a training paradise. They are waiting to book half of Italy ski clubs. «For training, the slopes must be perfect, also from the point of view of the equipment. So we need snow ». In short, Menardi concludes, “we will open as soon as we are able to offer the best”.
And as far as artificial snow is concerned, Ista, like the other clubs, will only take the field if the optimal conditions are present. Anyway, don’t worry, the installers. Apart from the brackets of lower temperatures in the coming days, the “summer” heat, with eight to ten degrees more, should not continue beyond mid-November and should not be as developed during the winter, especially December and January will be a a little wetter, which potentially means there should be snow in the mountains. This is asserted by scholars of mereology at the national level. We will see, crossing our fingers, concludes Sonia Menardi