The recent municipal elections have helped Salvini and Meloni to rediscover hot water. That «united we win and divided we lose». The recent “pact of Villa Grande”Signed in the Roman house of Berlusconi contains two elements. The first is the recognition that three parties with three different lines do not make a credible and therefore competitive coalition. The pact, however, did not clarify what the common line of the coalition will be. Salvini renounces the two-legged foot policy? Does Meloni renounce opposition to the Draghi government? Or will Berlusconi renounce his moderation?
No proportional reform
We will see. The other element is the agreement on the rejection of a proportional electoral reform. The three leaders of the center-right want to go to the vote with the current system or with an increasingly majority system, indeed more majority, but without single-member constituencies. The latter is the system they are working on Dario Parrini for the Democratic Party and Roberto Calderoli for the League.
The bond of the Rosatellum
It is said that Berlusconi is fond of bipolarism and therefore of majority electoral systems. It’s not true. Berlusconi is an opportunist. His party is a paradox. One of the many in Italian politics. It is the smallest of the three but its package of votes has a high marginal utility. Without Forza Italia with its tiny 7% Salvini and Meloni cannot win the next elections. The table published here shows why. We recall that the Rosatellum provides for the allocation of 63% of seats with formula proportional and the remaining 37% in boarding schools uninominal with the formula of the relative majority. Therefore, if in 2023 we went to vote with the Rosatellum, which is probable, Lega and Fdi with their 40% of the votes would get about 40% of the proportional seats but would need to win 70% of the single-member constituencies in the Chamber to get to the absolute majority of seats (201). This is not an objective within their reach.
With Berlusconi, Lega and FdI, 60% of the boarding schools would be enough
If, on the other hand, Berlusconi were to present himself in the next elections together with Salvini e Meloni the table tells us that with 47% of the votes less than 60% of the majority seats would be enough to reach an absolute majority. And this is a credible goal if tomorrow’s polls confirm today’s polls, which give the center-right united at around 47%.
Berlusconi decisive even if he runs alone
Berlusconi is therefore indispensable. The “Villa Grande pact” arises from this fact. But the beauty is that Berlusconi would be indispensable even if he did not appear together with Lega and Fdi. In fact, if the Knight abandoned Salvini and Meloni, it is possible that neither of the two coalitions – Pd-M5s on the one hand and Lega-Fdi on the other – win an absolute majority of the seats. The consequence would be that Berlusconi (but possibly also Carlo Calenda and maybe as happened in the past the deputies “foreigners”) Would have the decisive seats in their hands to form any government. To neutralize this perspective, the only way would be that of an agreement involving three of the four major parties.