[Epoch Times, November 11, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Xia Song comprehensive report) The ASEAN Summit opened in Cambodia this morning (11th) morning. US President Joe Biden and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will attend the meeting tomorrow. Against the backdrop of the confrontation between the United States and China, ASEAN countries are faced with choosing sides. Analysts believe that ASEAN is neither willing to have a war between the United States and China in the South China Sea nor to be bullied by the CCP. It is very difficult to choose a side now, and it will make a choice based on public opinion in the future.
US-China geopolitics on the agenda of ASEAN summit
The 40th and 41st ASEAN Summits opened today (11th) in Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia. This is the first face-to-face meeting between ASEAN leaders since the outbreak.
The host Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said at the opening ceremony, “We are now at the most unstable and important juncture of the situation. The survival of millions of people in the region depends on our wisdom and vision.”
Hun Sen received the participating ASEAN leaders at the Sokha Hotel in the Convention Center in the morning, including Brunei Sultan Hassanal, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, Philippine President Marcos, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Trinh, Thai Prime Minister Prayut, Laos Prime Minister Pankan.
Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri was absent due to domestic elections, but he sent the Prime Minister’s envoy to the meeting.
Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the Myanmar military government that overthrew the government last year, was excluded from the summit and was not invited to the ASEAN summit. However, Cambodia, which holds the rotating presidency, invited non-political representatives from Myanmar to participate, but Myanmar did not send a representative.
Post-pandemic economic recovery, U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, the Myanmar crisis, the South China Sea dispute, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and climate change are all on the agenda, according to DPA.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) consists of 10 Southeast Asian countries to promote diplomatic cooperation in economic, political and security interests. The total population of ASEAN is about 668 million.
U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue will all join the meeting tomorrow (12th). Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will also attend.
Li Keqiang arrived in Phnom Penh on the evening of the 8th. This is his first visit since the outbreak of the epidemic, and it is also his last time to attend a series of ASEAN meetings as the Chinese Premier of the State Council.
The Associated Press reported that Li Keqiang announced a large-scale development aid plan for Cambodia on the 10th, presided over the signing of 18 aid and cooperation agreements, covering areas ranging from road and bridge construction, agricultural trade to education and health projects, and attended a by The inauguration of a Chinese-backed highway.
DW said China is a major investor and aid donor to Cambodia, Beijing’s closest ally in Southeast Asia.
A senior U.S. official said Biden would stress the importance of peace in the region, including Taiwan, and respect for a “rules-based international order” at the ASEAN summit, AFP reported.
Southeast Asian countries struggle to choose sides
In the context of the confrontation between the United States and China, Southeast Asian countries may face a choice. Will they openly choose sides?
Current affairs commentator Li Linyi told The Epoch Times today that it is well known that the CCP and Southeast Asian countries have conflicts over territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea. As China continues to strengthen its military presence in the South China Sea, the United States has also been forced into these disputes in an attempt to preserve freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
ASEAN countries are in a more awkward position. On the one hand, they want to make money by maintaining economic and trade relations with the CCP; on the other hand, they have to rely on the United States to ensure their territorial security, which creates an embarrassing situation for them to be caught between the United States and China.
He said, “For ASEAN, neither the United States and China would like to have a war in the South China Sea nor be bullied by the CCP, so for ASEAN, which side to choose now becomes a headache. I think ASEAN will still make a decision in the future. The choice, but which side to choose, ultimately depends on the public opinion of these countries.”
William Choong, a senior researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, told VOA that when China’s economy is in dire straits, Washington should take this opportunity to intensify efforts to promote the Indo-Pacific in ASEAN, which has long relied on China for its economy and the United States for its security. The Economic Framework (IPEF), although it cannot make them choose sides immediately, is expected to challenge the powerful economic and trade influence of the CCP in the future.
“The Indo-Pacific economic framework is a viable option, although the IPEF is less detailed at the moment and doesn’t have a lot of concrete stuff, but it’s definitely a part of Washington’s progress in the region (referring to ASEAN) compared to China,” he said. a way.
“In fact, all seven ASEAN countries, except Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, have joined IPEF. This is a vote of confidence by these countries (ASEAN) in the economic norms that they want the United States to participate in ASEAN affairs and as part of the future economic structure, so this Definitely an initiative that the U.S. should continue to push (in ASEAN).”
China tries to rule out U.S. factor on South China Sea issue
After the ASEAN Leaders Summit this morning, the 25th ASEAN-China, the 23rd ASEAN-Korea, and the ASEAN-United Nations Leaders’ Meetings were subsequently held.
Li Keqiang emphasized the importance of peace and stability in the South China Sea at the ASEAN-China Summit.
Fa Guang said that in the opening remarks of the ASEAN-China meeting, in addition to reviewing the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries, Li Keqiang may have tried to appease the many participating countries that have disputes over the South China Sea with China. Most of his speeches focused on the South China Sea. While stressing the importance of peace and stability in the region, he called on all relevant countries to abide by relevant international law.
Li Linyi said, “Li Keqiang’s statement is to want Southeast Asian countries to reduce conflicts with the CCP. In essence, he wants to exclude the U.S. factor in the South China Sea issue. The CCP is not afraid of anyone, except the United States, because the United States is both economically and They are more powerful militarily.”
He said that due to territorial disputes with the CCP, Southeast Asian countries are reluctant to back down on these issues, so there will be some frictions from time to time in the South China Sea. The CCP’s military presence also gives the United States a good reason to intervene.
“On the issue of the South China Sea (South China Sea), I believe the CCP will continue to protest U.S. interference, or It is to participate in regional issues, (however) China is now closer to strategic austerity, and its diplomatic space is relatively constricted. In the past, this kind of wolf-warrior-style behavior may still exist, but it will not be as aggressive as before.”
Sun Kim, assistant dean and lecturer at the School of Social Sciences and International Relations (SSIR) at Wisdom University of Cambodia (PUC), told VOA that Biden will reiterate that the United States will always stand with ASEAN, especially when it comes to maritime issues Disputed country to counter China (CCP) in the South China Sea.
China claims almost all of the South China Sea, but Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and Indonesia also claim some of the waters. The South China Sea is rich in natural resources and is also an important international shipping route.
Responsible editor: Sun Yun#