Just over three billion saved by consumers on gas and electricity bills between October and November thanks to the mild climate. It is an indication, the one that comes out of a survey elaborated by Nomisma Energy for Il Sole 24 Ore which, which does not go unnoticed, above all if the context is that – to use the words used by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti in the introduction to the budget planning document sent to the European Commission – of families “hardly affected by the sharp rise in inflation.
«A big help from the climate, from the October party, which also arrived in the first half of November – explains Davide Tabarelli, president of the research company in the energy and environmental fields -. In these first two months of the winter season, October and November, savings due to mild weather amounted to 3.1 billion, a small bonus for a higher bill of 16 billion euros compared to before the crisis».
Mild autumn, over two billion cubic meters of lower gas consumption saved
The numbers: there are over 2 billion cubic meters of lower gas consumption for this soft start to the winter season, the one with the highest seasonal consumption, up to 4 times those in the summer. In the two months of October and November 2022 – notes Nomisma Energia – the exceptional temperatures, which returned somewhat in the second half of November, allowed a drop of the order of a quarter compared to the same period of the previous year.
For consumers, savings of 2.4 billion euros
Hence the return in terms of savings on bills. «Simply multiplying the average price of this period of 1.2 euros per cubic meter, deriving from 120 euros per megawatt hour of the notorious TTF market (“Title Transfer Facility”, the virtual market for the exchange of natural gas based in the Netherlands, one of the main reference markets for gas exchange in Europe, ed) – observe the technicians of Nomisma Energia – the saving for consumers is of the order of 2.4 billion euros».
The glass half full
Of course, they still observe, it is «the glass half full, because half empty concerns the fact that the consumption of 10 billion cubic meters that we consumed this year, again in October and November, we paid three times the normal amount, meaning for normal the average prices of the previous years. The estimate is that we spent on average, for all three main sectors, thermoelectric, industry and heating, something like 9 billion euros, against the 3 we spent before the crisis». Hence the (bitter) conclusion. «If the quantities consumed were less, the higher cost due to the surge in prices still largely exceeded the savings.