[Epoch Times October 12th, 2021](Interviewed by Epoch Times reporters Luo Ya and Li Jing) The Chinese and Indian armed forces have relapsed in the border area recently. To ease tensions, China and India hold a new round of high-level military talks . The CCP military spokesperson rarely issued a press release in the early hours of the morning, citing outside speculation. Some experts believe that the possibility of a new conflict breaking out on the China-India border is more than 50%. The CCP spokesperson’s press release was issued in the early morning hours, which may be an emergency operation within the military.
Analysis: The CCP’s overreaction is accused of overreaction in the Sino-Indian border conflict
Recently, a confrontation between the Chinese and Indian forces at the actual control line in Arunachal Pradesh, India, and some Chinese soldiers who “crossed the border” were briefly detained. After the Chinese and Indian commanders negotiated, the two sides ended the confrontation.
In response, Indian News 18 TV station quoted a report from a high-level Indian official that about 200 Chinese soldiers entered Tawang Town in Arunachal Pradesh from Tibet in an attempt to destroy the unguarded bunker. Among them, some Chinese soldiers were detained by India and have now been released.
However, the Chinese side stated that the news of the Indian media about the Chinese soldiers being detained for “crossing the line” is inconsistent with the facts. At the same time, the Chinese Communist Party’s “Liberation Army Daily” and other official media have issued articles accusing India of spreading rumors.
On October 10, the Chinese and Indian armed forces held the 13th round of military commander-level talks in Moldo on the Chinese side of the Ladakh region. According to a statement issued by the two countries on Monday (11th), this round of talks failed to reach an agreement, and the two sides passed the responsibility for the collapse of the meeting to each other.
Su Ziyun, a full-time associate researcher and director of the National Defense Resources and Industry Research Institute of Taiwan’s National Defense Security Research Institute, said in an interview with The Epoch Times, “The current third round of military commander-level talks between the two sides, first of all, the two sides want to define the physical issue at the border. At the level of affairs, it is not the kind of border negotiations between national diplomats, but the handling of border affairs.”
“The second point is that the current spokespersons of the two sides, such as Long Shaohua, the spokesperson of the CCP’s western theater, said he hoped that the Indian side would not misjudge the situation. But the spokesperson of the Indian Ministry of Defense accused the CCP of trying to change the status quo.” Su Ziyun said.
Since February this year, India and China have withdrawn their troops from Pangong Tso, Gogra, and some standoff locations on the north and south banks of the Galwan Valley. But as part of the multi-level deployment, they continued to retain additional troops. In addition, there are additional military deployments in Demchok and Depsang Plains.
Regarding the CCP’s official media’s extensive coverage of the latest Sino-Indian conflict, Su Ziyun believes that China’s overreaction seems a bit overwhelming, and the current situation on the Sino-Indian border is easy to wipe out. He explained: “We can see that the activities of these company-level or battalion-level troops often turn into a situation where the two sides accuse each other and cross the boundary. The talks may be deadlocked again.”
“Another one is that the Chinese and Indian troops accused each other of using sausage-cutting methods, that is, the two sides pushed the outpost to the other side of the border. Judging from the CCP’s past actual actions and the current evidence, it is possible for the CCP to use this method. It’s more sexual. This is the main reason why the international community believes that the CCP has been adopting such military bullying behavior.”
Su Ziyun said: “In addition to the CCP’s military expansion on the western border, it also uses this type of military coercion in the Taiwan, East China Sea and South China Seas. However, the CCP’s frontline is stretched too long and it will eventually fall into more strategic dilemmas.”
The CCP’s military issued a press release in the early hours of the morning. Expert: Emergency operations within the military
According to a report by the Chinese Communist Party’s official media Global Network, in the early morning of October 11, Long Shaohua, spokesperson for the Western Theater Command of the Communist Party of China, gave an explanation on the 13th round of the China-India military commander-level talks. Long Shaohua said, “India still insists on unreasonable and unrealistic demands, which has added difficulties to negotiations.”
Why does the CCP military release news in the early morning? Su Ziyun believes that official press releases are usually released during the day. It is very rare that the CCP military chooses to announce in the early morning hours. At this time, the general media has no work.
He said: “The CCP has rushed to release it at this time. It is likely that it will preemptively criticize and transfer the blame to the Indian side. In addition, when the CCP military takes action, it has a proclamation or a statement in advance. The PLA has a tactical flexibility. Otherwise, it is almost unnecessary to choose to issue press releases in the early hours of the morning.”
Su Ziyun speculated that the possibility of a new conflict breaking out on the Sino-Indian border exceeds 50%. He said: “The press release of the spokesperson of the Western Theater Command of the Communist Party of China is issued in the early morning hours, which means that it may be an emergency operation in the western theater, and it will be issued in the early morning hours. It may indicate that the frontline troops have entered a state of combat readiness. Control. If the front-line troops fired, the press release would have been issued on the same day. If the situation is controlled, the front-line troops can be prepared and not used. Therefore, the timing of the CCP’s military’s press release becomes important for us to judge the situation. in accordance with.”
In May last year, the Chinese and Indian forces carried out aggressive actions and clashes in many places along the line of actual control on the China-India border, causing casualties on both sides. This is the first conflict between China and India that has caused deaths since 1967.
Expert: Launching a war across the Taiwan Strait will threaten the Chinese Communist system
In addition, on the eve of the October 10th National Day of the Republic of China, the Chinese military aircraft entered the southwest airspace of Taiwan again at 7 am on October 10. . Judging from the pictures provided by the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China, there is only one sortie at present.
In addition, just the day before, Xi Jinping delivered a speech to Taiwan. While repeating his determination to reunify Taiwan, he lowered the tone of military reunification against Taiwan.
In this regard, Su Ziyun believes that if the CCP decides to use troops, it can use ground forces and air power on the Sino-Indian border to fight a small-scale symbolic war, and it is difficult for the outside world to intervene. If the CCP starts a war in the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, or the South China Sea, the odds of winning are very small. Because maritime warfare is completely different from land warfare on the Sino-Indian border, the maritime battlefield basically relies on military technology. The technology of the Chinese navy and air force is obviously not comparable to that of the West.
“The other is risk. In other respects, the CCP can pay any price. However, the most unacceptable risk for the CCP is that if a war is launched in the Taiwan Strait and the CCP cannot gain the upper hand, or even fail, it will have a huge impact on China. The political influence of China will endanger the CCP system or Xi Jinping’s dominance.” Su Ziyun said.
Editor in charge: Li Qiong#