China’s ten-year population migration has decreased in 149 cities, where did they go?
Author: Lin Xiaozhao
[ 人口下降的149市来自23个省份。分地区来看，东部地区共有14个，中部地区有47个，西部地区有55个，东北有33个。 ]
In the past ten years, the population has further concentrated in economically developed regions and urban agglomerations. While the population of some cities and regions is growing rapidly, there is correspondingly a considerable number of regional population outflows.
A reporter from China Business News compiled the seven census data published by various regions, combed through the population changes of more than 330 prefecture-level administrative regions (including prefecture-level cities, regions, autonomous prefectures and leagues, hereinafter referred to as “cities”) over the past ten years and found that a total of 149 cities have a population. There has been a decrease, accounting for 44.7%. The cities where the population has decreased are more in Gansu and Sichuan in the northeast, central and western regions.
It should be noted that in the seven census data released by various regions, some provinces have separately announced that some province-administered cities are county-level cities. In order to maintain uniformity, this article does not include statistics. Among them, Hainan only includes the data of 4 prefecture-level cities; In the data released by individual provinces, individual functional areas are listed separately, and they are not included in the statistics here.
Decrease in population of 149 cities nationwide
Statistics show that there are more than 330 prefecture-level administrative regions in 27 provinces other than municipalities. Among them, 184 cities achieved population growth, while 149 cities experienced a decline.
Among them, the 149 cities with declining population came from 23 provinces. In terms of regions, there are 14 in the eastern region, accounting for 9.4% of the total decline in the total number of cities; 47 in the central region, accounting for 31.54%; 55 in the western region, accounting for 36.91%; 33 in the northeast, accounting for 22.15%.
In terms of provinces, the provinces of 149 cities are mainly from the northeast and central regions, Shaanxi and Gansu in the northwest, and Sichuan and Yunnan in the southwest. In some regions, such as Northeast and Shanxi, industrialization and urbanization are relatively early, the birth rate is relatively low, and the proportion of energy heavy chemical industries is relatively large. However, in recent years, the downward pressure on energy heavy chemical industries has been greater, and many places have experienced population exodus. There are more prefectures and cities with a declining population.
Among them, the population of only three cities in the northeastern region has increased, namely, the three sub-provincial cities of Shenyang, Dalian and Changchun, while the population of other cities have all declined. For example, compared with the data of the Sixth Census in 2010, the permanent resident population in Heilongjiang has decreased by 6.4639 million, a drop of 16.87%, and the population of all 13 prefectures and cities in the province has declined.
Yi Baozhong, a professor at the Northeast Asian Research Institute of Jilin University, analyzed by China Business News that the birth rate in Northeast China is relatively low and the population ageing is high. At the same time, due to the great downward pressure on the economy and the reduction of employment opportunities, many young people have flowed to the southeast coast. Over the past ten years, the Northeast has been in a state of population exodus.
As a major energy province, Shanxi has more cities with a declining population. In 2020, the province’s permanent population was 34,915,600, which was a decrease of 796,500 or 2.23% in ten years compared with the 35.712 million in the Sixth Census in 2010; 9 out of 11 cities experienced a decline.
In addition to Shanxi, the population decline in central provinces such as Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan is also relatively large. For example, among the 16 cities in Anhui, 10 have declined, Hunan and Hubei (excluding county-level cities and forest areas directly under the jurisdiction of the province) each have eight, and Henan and Jiangxi each have six.
There are many prefectures and cities in the central region where population declines. On the one hand, the central region is close to the three major economic circles of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In recent years, with the rapid development of the high-speed rail network, the hinterland of the three major economic circles has continued to expand, and personnel exchanges between the central region, which has abundant labor resources, and the three major economic circles have become more convenient.
Taking Henan as an example, compared with 10 years ago, the proportion of the outflow population from Henan to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai in the province’s outflow population increased by 5.1, 2.3, and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. The population from Henan to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai accounts for nearly 40% of Henan’s population, which is nearly 10% higher than 10 years ago.
Associate Professor Ding Changfa of the Department of Economics of Xiamen University analyzed China Business News that with the development of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the transportation infrastructure including high-speed rail has become more and more perfect, which has also made the industrial docking and personnel exchanges between Henan and Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai more improved. convenient.
On the other hand, there are many prefectures, cities, and states with population decline in Hubei, Hunan, Anhui and other places. Another reason is that the development momentum of provincial capital cities in these places has been very strong in recent years, and the proportion of provincial capitals in the province’s GDP and population has risen rapidly. . Part of the population outflow from the cities in the province went to the developed coastal areas, and part to the powerful provincial capitals of the province where it was located.
Take Hunan as an example. Shaoyang, Hengyang, Yiyang, Changde, and Yueyang have experienced relatively large population declines. Among them, Shaoyang decreased by 508,000 compared with 2010, and Hengyang decreased by 496,000. The provincial capital, Changsha, has increased by 3 million in ten years, and its total population has exceeded 10 million, reaching 10.047,900, making it the third provincial capital city in the central region that has exceeded the 10 million population.
This situation also occurs in some provinces such as the southwest and northwest. For example, among the 10 cities in Shaanxi, 7 cities have experienced population declines, while the provincial capital Xi’an has increased by 3,799,700 (excluding the Xianyang area of Xixian New District) in the past ten years, surpassing cities such as Wuhan with 12.95 million. In Sichuan, the permanent resident population of Chengdu, the provincial capital, has increased by 5.8189 million in ten years. At the same time, 13 of Sichuan’s 21 prefectures and cities have decreased in population.
Where is the population going
According to statistics, all prefectures and cities in 4 provinces have achieved population growth, namely Zhejiang and Hainan in the east and Guizhou and Tibet in the west.
Zhejiang is the only province among the several major economic provinces in the east that has achieved population growth in all prefectures and cities over the past decade. This is related to the relatively balanced development of the regional economy in Zhejiang. In 2020, the per capita disposable income of residents in all prefectures and cities in Zhejiang will exceed the national average.
According to Tang Hairu, deputy chairman of the Expert Committee of the Hangzhou Planning Commission, the income gap between urban and rural areas in Zhejiang is small and the regional development is relatively balanced. Zhejiang is dominated by the private economy, and many counties have formed industrial clusters with their own characteristics. The industrial foundation is very solid. On this basis, the population of each city has achieved positive growth based on prefectures and cities.
Due to its small land area and fewer administrative units, Hainan Province has always implemented the direct jurisdiction of all counties and cities, including prefecture-level cities, county-level cities and counties, and a total of 19 cities and counties. Seventh census data shows that in the past ten years, although the population of 3 counties in Hainan has decreased, all 4 prefecture-level cities have achieved growth.
Among these provinces where all prefectures and cities have achieved population growth, there are not only provinces such as Zhejiang with developed economy and balanced regional development, but also some places such as Hainan, Guizhou, and Tibet. Due to the high birth rate, the population of each city is equal. Achieved growth.
If it is expanded to other provinces, some provinces with relatively large growth areas and population declines in individual cities, such as Shandong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Guangxi and other provinces, have similar reasons, or are related to relatively developed economies and more population inflows. , Or it is related to its higher birth rate.
From the perspective of the direction of population migration, the cities that have moved out mainly come from some provinces in the northeast, central, northwest, and southwest. Judging from the list of 149 cities, with the exception of Harbin, a sub-provincial city, most of the other cities are third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities. However, the specific conditions of these cities are not the same. Among them, many ordinary prefecture-level cities in the Northeast are resource-exhausted cities and shrinking cities. Not only the total population of the city is declining, but even the central urban area is shrinking.
Since the population of prefectures and cities refers to the total population within the scope of the city, it includes not only the population of the central urban area, but also the population of the counties and county-level cities under its jurisdiction. For many cities in the Midwest, although the total population of the city has declined, it does not mean that the urban population has decreased. In fact, while part of the population of the counties and cities under its jurisdiction flows to the coastal and provincial capital cities, part of the population also flows to the central urban areas of the local cities. Therefore, the central urban areas of these cities are constantly expanding and strengthening.
From the perspective of the direction of population inflow, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and other places have become the main areas of population inflow. According to statistics from a reporter from China Business News, there are eight southern provinces with a ten-year increase of more than 3 million people, namely Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing, with an increase of 56.96 million in total, accounting for the national increase. 79% of the amount. Among them, the five southeast coastal provinces Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shanghai totaled 44,435,800 increments, accounting for 61.7% of the national increment.
The permanent population of Guangdong, the largest economic province in the past ten years, has increased by 21.709 million, an increase of 20.81%. Guangdong’s increase accounted for 30% of the national increase. Data show that Guangdong currently has a total floating population of 52.062 million, of which 29.6221 million are inflows from other provinces.
However, there is a big gap in regional development in Guangdong, and there is a big gap between the east, west and north of Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta. The economically developed Pearl River Delta has not only attracted a large influx of people from outside the province, but also a large influx of people from the east, west, and north of Guangdong within the province. Therefore, although the birth rate has been relatively high in the east, west and north of Guangdong, there are still 6 cities in Guangdong that have a population decline. This also shows how attractive the population of the Pearl River Delta is.
In addition to flowing to the developed areas of the southeast coast, in many provinces in the central and western regions, the floating population within the province has increased significantly, mainly due to the transfer of ordinary cities in the province to provincial capitals and central cities. Especially in the central and western provinces such as Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, Hubei, and Yunnan, the development of strong provincial capitals has accelerated in recent years, and the population of other cities in the province has accelerated to move to strong provincial capitals.
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