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The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on Monday (January 17) that the number of births in China in 2021 will be 10.62 million, and the birth rate will further drop to 7.52‰.
After deducting the number of deaths, China’s total population increased by only 480,000 compared with the end of the previous year, and the natural population growth rate was as low as 0.34‰.
In the past few years, discussions about “aging” and “low birthrate” have been rampant in China, and “population anxiety” has been accumulating. But the just-released last year’s population data surprised many experts.
Some analysts pointed out that how to deal with the rapid and early arrival of the era of “zero population growth” or even “negative growth” has become an unavoidable problem for China.
The knock on the door of “negative population growth”
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Although China’s population has not yet experienced negative growth, the net increase in population has fallen off a cliff in recent years.
What is the birth population of China in 2020? This issue was arguing from the beginning of the year to the end of the year last year-the seventh census data, which was to be released in April, was still not released in May. The Financial Times once quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that China’s population has experienced “negative growth”. However, Chinese officials later clarified that this was not the case.
According to the “China Statistical Yearbook 2021” released at the end of last year, the birth rate of China’s population in 2020 is 8.52‰, which is the first time that it has fallen below 10‰.
The news of a net increase of 2.04 million people in 2020 has caused waves. Although China’s population has not yet experienced negative growth, the net increase in population has fallen off a cliff in recent years.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s annual net population growth fell into the range of 10 million in 2000, gradually dropped to the range of 7 million in the next five years to 2005, and then slowly dropped to 6.4 million in 2010 after another five years.
At this time, China gradually liberalized the family planning policy, and gradually changed from “dual-only two-children” (two children in a single-only family) to “single two-children”. The net increase in population once rebounded rapidly, and then in 2011-2014, the 8.25 million, 10.06 million, 8.04 million, 9.2 million.
In 2015, the net increase in population dropped back to more than 6 million, and China began to fully liberalize the “second child” policy. In the following two years, in 2016 and 2017, the net increase rose to 9.06 million and 7.79 million.
Since then, China’s population has entered a state of “continuous decline”, breaking the new record every year since 1961 (the population decreased by 3.48 million due to the great famine in that year) – the net population increase in 2018 was 5.3 million, and in 2019, 4.67 million, In 2020, it will directly cut to 2.04 million people, and in 2021, it will be cut in half and then cut in half, with a net increase of only 480,000 people.
“Demographic challenges are well known, but the population is ageing significantly faster than expected,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Shanghai-based Baoyin Capital Management, predicting that China’s total population may have peaked in 2021.
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In addition to relaxing restrictions, what kind of guarantees or incentives the government can provide may also affect the willingness to bear children.
The era of negative growth may be greatly advanced
The subtext is that China’s population may enter an era of “negative growth” in 2022. If it comes true, this time point will be much earlier than experts predict.
The “Green Paper on Population and Labor” released by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in early 2019 pointed out that China’s population will reach its peak level in 10 years, that is, in 2029, and then there will be negative growth.
The United Nations “World Population Prospects 2019″ predicts that China’s fertility rate will be 1.70 in 2021 and 1.75 in 2030, and the population will begin to grow negatively by 2032. Fertility rate refers to the ratio of the number of births to the average number of women of childbearing age during the same period.
The U.S. Census Bureau in 2021 predicts that China’s fertility rate will be 1.50 in 2021 and 1.52 in 2030, and the population will begin to grow negatively in 2031.
China’s “National Population Development Plan (2016-2030)” predicts that the fertility rate will stabilize at 1.8 in 2020-2030, and the population will only start negative growth in 2031.
In these forecasts, the negative population growth in China is much later than 2022.
Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin in the United States, has long studied China’s population issues and has published the book “Empty Nest of Great Powers”. He told BBC Chinese that if China’s population starts to grow negatively in 2022, many years ahead of the forecasts of Chinese officials, the United Nations, and the U.S. Census Bureau, it means that China’s social, economic, national defense, foreign policy and other policies are all based on mistakes. On the basis of population data, it also means that the policies of the United States and other countries towards China are also based on wrong population data.
It is generally predicted that the total population of mainland China will continue to grow and will reach a peak in the next few years, but the elderly over 60 will account for 1/4 of the total population.
Labour crisis?
The turn of population growth into negative territory is a critical juncture, signaling a major shift in China in many ways. Zhang Zhiwei believes that this means that China’s economic slowdown may also come sooner than expected.
The logic behind it is that moving towards negative population growth means that China’s labor supply will continue to shrink for decades to come. And less labor could mean higher wages, which, for manufacturing, could mean slower exports, hampering China’s future economic growth. A shrinking workforce will also highlight issues such as the sustainability of social security, especially pensions.
Yi Fuxian believes that China’s negative population growth will be a historical turning point for hundreds of years, as well as a turning point in the world‘s geopolitics and economy.
According to Julian Evans-Pritchard, an expert on China’s economic issues at Capital Economics, “China may not be able to replace the United States as the largest economy in the foreseeable future.”
However, He Jun, director of the Macro Research Center of Anbang Think Tank, believes that the impact of the fertility rate on the economy should be viewed rationally. First of all, economic prosperity, increased urbanization, higher parenting costs, and changes in people’s perceptions of personal quality of life and personal value realization will all bring about a reduction in the fertility rate, which is actually a sign of social development and progress.
Some experts believe that China should face this reality and focus on improving the quality of its population to meet the challenges.
Li Kai, a scholar at the School of Marxism at Liaoning University, pointed out in an article that to overcome the impact of the weakening of the demographic dividend on economic development, China must improve the quality of its population, promote the transition from “demographic dividend” to “talent dividend”, and accelerate the establishment of a competitive advantage in human resources.