China’s research and development of hypersonic missile technology: three questions and two hidden concerns behind it-BBC News

In response to the Chinese official explanation, the outside world did not dispel their doubts, and some analysis still believes that this is a new type of hypersonic missile. The U.S. military was extremely shocked and highly vigilant, comparing this moment with the “Sputnik moment” that triggered the U.S.-Soviet space and the arms race into the Cold War in 1957.

General Mark A. Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at the end of October that China’s test of hypersonic missiles, which can evade US nuclear defense systems, is “very close to the Sputnik moment” for the United States.

On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched the first man-made earth satellite in human history, the Sputnik I satellite, prompting the United States to invest its entire country in space technology research and development. In 1969, the United States achieved the first successful landing of a man on the moon.

What kind of weapon is a hypersonic missile? Does China’s breakthrough in this technology mark the beginning of the latest arms race between China, the United States, and Russia? Can this kind of missile really “come without a trace and go without a trace”?

The BBC International Station’s “Investigation” program invited experts to analyze and explain the origin and current situation of the missile. In the current tense relationship between China and the United States, the development of hypersonic missiles will bring any hidden concerns to international security.

Since human beings have had wars in ancient times, they have mastered the ability to project lethal weapons at a long distance to the enemy, from the most primitive slingshot, to the longer-range bow and arrow, to the artillery that is still in use today.

It is generally believed that the Chinese were the first to use the rocket principle. In fact, the name “rocket” first appeared in the classics of the Three Kingdoms period around the third century AD, but at that time the rocket was only tied to the front end of the arrow with a combustible material, and then shot with a bow or crossbow.

Rockets in the modern sense are closely related to the invention of engines by German scientists in the second half of the 19th century. Propelled by the engine, the ammunition can be shot at a farther enemy. Although this technology was only used in war a few decades later, Germany made critical progress in the 1930s.

The Treaty of Versailles signed at the end of the First World War restricted Germany’s military development, but the rocket technology at that time was not very advanced, so the agreement did not contain any content for rocket research and development.

In 1943, at the height of World War II, German weapon technology for long-range attacks on targets was ready. From two very different research projects, two very different missiles were developed: one is called V1, which is The prototype of cruise missiles; the other is V2, the predecessor of ballistic missiles. But both types of long-range attack bombs have serious limitations.

V1 is a winged bomb driven by a jet engine. It flies in a horizontal line. Its problem is that it generates high temperature due to its rapid flight speed in the air, and its guidance is a problem. V2 comes with a rocket engine that does not require external oxygen and can fly outside the earth’s atmosphere, but it also has guidance problems, and this problem eventually caused Nazi Germany’s leader Hitler to abandon his plan to launch V2 missiles to the United States.

Dr Gustav Gressel, who used to work for the Austrian Ministry of Defense, is now a think tank-the Berlin branch of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

He introduced: “In the late stage of World War II, the German military was eager to develop missiles capable of effective long-range attacks, but the two missiles developed were not satisfactory in terms of guidance accuracy and mileage. The accuracy of the missiles was about the same. It’s 1.5% of its range. If you use the same guidance technology to make a longer-range missile, the accuracy of this missile is very poor. A missile with such poor accuracy, if you want to use New York As the target of the attack, the result was disastrous.”

V2 missiles are ballistic missiles. During World War II, Germany used the missile to attack London, Paris and Antwerp. But it failed to turn the tide of the war, and Nazi Germany was defeated.

After the war, some German scientists who developed missile technology immigrated to the United States and the Soviet Union and continued to engage in research work, helping the United States‘ moon program and the former Soviet Union’s space exploration projects 20 years later.

Thanks to missile technology, the armaments of the United States and the Soviet Union have made considerable progress. But as far as the missile itself is concerned, the guidance capability urgently needs to be improved and improved.

The two types of missile technologies developed in the early days of Germany evolved into current ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

Cruise missiles have a short range and fly horizontally in the atmosphere. Ballistic missiles have a range of up to thousands of kilometers and spend most of their flight time outside the atmosphere, falling when they approach the target.

The flight speed of modern missiles is not only supersonic, which can be faster than the speed of sound, but also hypersonic, which is several times the speed of sound, which means flying thousands of kilometers per hour.

Dr. Laura Grego of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) said: “The modern missiles we know, especially the long-range missiles, are already hypersonic and can quickly go from A to B. Therefore, In this sense, the focus of hypersonic missiles is actually a bit blurred. Generally speaking, when people refer to hypersonic missiles, they are actually talking about other characteristics of these missile technologies (rather than speed), which they often say It is the mobility of the missile.”

The maneuverability of the missile is very important not only to accurately hit the target, but also to avoid being detected by the enemy. A major flaw of long-range ballistic missiles is that they fly into the air and then fall back to the ground, so the enemy can see its flight direction at a glance and can be intercepted and destroyed before it reaches the target.

Dr. Grieg said: “When the missiles are lifted into the air, the direction is predictable. Later, when they fall under the influence of the earth’s gravity, their location is predictable. Once the missile engine stops burning, the remaining missile trajectory has been predetermined. At this time You have to change the trajectory unless you have some control.” The advantage of hypersonic missiles is that they can control the path as they descend towards the target.

According to Dr. Grieg, hypersonic missiles use aerodynamic force to rotate in different directions by using pressure on the atmosphere to reduce the predictability of their trajectory. Although this kind of shuttle makes it more difficult to predict the direction of the missile, Dr. Grieg said that because the missile generates heat, the probability of finding them is still quite high. “The missile not only reflects light, but also emits bright light, which can be observed by sensors. Countries such as the United States and Russia have installed infrared sensors in space to monitor the launch of ballistic missiles. Those particularly long-range hypersonic missiles should be affected by such sensors. Observed. These long-range hypersonic missiles become very hot as they pass through the atmosphere and emit enough heat and light to be detectable in most of their paths. So they will not be invisible. In fact, they will not be invisible. , They should be fairly obvious.”

Dr. Grieg believes that the latter half of the flight of a hypersonic missile may even be detected by radar.

“You imagine that this kind of missile will be magical, and it will not be detected by radar. But in fact, infrared sensors should be able to detect most of the missile’s path. And when the ballistic missile’s final speed slows down, it will not emit so much heat. , May be detected by radar. So from a technical point of view, the claim that hypersonic missiles are invisible is simply not true.”

Hypersonic technology has indeed solved certain related problems caused by cruise missiles moving at high speeds, which is undoubtedly a major technological breakthrough. But some people claim that this technology will pose a major threat to the military, and Dr. Grieg disagrees.

“Some people say that hypersonic missiles are faster and faster than existing ones, but from a technical point of view, this is wrong. Because no matter how fast it is, it still takes time. From this perspective, the competitive advantage of ballistic missiles exists. Some people say that the hypersonic missile will appear without a trace and will appear unknowingly, so that the opponent will not be given any warning time. But from a technical point of view, this is not right. You can see it launching into the air, you You can also see most of its landing path. So, hypersonic missiles are not invisible, nor faster. What they can do is maneuverability, but this is not much beyond the existing level. .”

In this case, it is very difficult for even hypersonic missiles to evade the world‘s most advanced anti-missile system in the United States. So, why did China’s recent tests of hypersonic missiles shock the world?

Many countries in the world are developing hypersonic technology, including France, India, Japan and Australia, but China, the United States and Russia are still leading the way.

Why do so many big countries spend huge sums of money in research and development of hypersonic technology? The most obvious reason is, of course, competition in the field of military technology.

Dr Marina Favaro from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, University of Hamburg introduced the outside world’s assessment of the competitiveness of China, the United States, and Russia: “Someone Said that Russia has experience but not much money; China has money but not much experience; the United States has both money and experience.”

“The general consensus is: faster is better. In addition, owning these advanced weapons is considered to have a sense of pride in the country and a higher prestige in the world. Owning does not have to be used, the purpose is to show that we are capable. To develop weapons, we have the most advanced cutting-edge technology.”

In other words, China’s recent test may be a signal from Beijing to the United States: China’s military technology is comparable to that of the United States. After all, although the United States has always publicly stated that it possesses hypersonic weapon capabilities, it has not publicly explained it.

Dr. Favaro said: “The reason the United States develops hypersonic weapons is to maintain the necessary battlefield superiority, to act as a deterrent, and to defeat any future opponents when necessary. These are directly written in their strategic documents. The United States Many members of Congress have accepted the view:’As long as China and Russia are developing a certain weapon, then the United States must also develop it. Therefore, people in private science and technology all say that it is made first, and then policymakers will find a reason to use it anyway.’ .”

The essence of the arms race is: if you have it, I will race against time to have it, even better than yours.

The development of hypersonic weapons by Russia and China itself can be a bargaining chip in arms control negotiations. But what needs to be considered is how to calculate the amount of chips in hand.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States both developed nuclear weapons. The academic circles referred to the factors restricting the mutual attack between the United States and the Soviet Union as the “Mutual Guaranteed Destruction” mechanism (MAD): Any country using nuclear weapons must face the consequences of both destruction.

A similar concept called “mutual vulnerability” is part of the reason why China and Russia embrace hypersonic technology because these countries fear that in the event of a conflict, the US missile defense system will be more capable of responding to conventional missile attacks than its own.

According to Dr. Favaro’s analysis: “When it comes to mutual vulnerability, we are actually talking about the concept of strategic stability. If the United States is completely invulnerable, that is to say, if missiles or other weapon systems from Russia and China cannot penetrate the United States at all. , Then it will affect mutual vulnerability, because the United States will remain intact, while Russia and China will continue to be weak.”

However, in Dr. Favaro’s view, Russia and China are likely to overplay the United States‘ defense capabilities.

“Although the US ballistic missile defense system is not so sophisticated, Russia and China don’t think so. The key role of nuclear weapons deterrence is precisely because of mutual vulnerability, which is why we do not go to war with each other.”

This should explain well why China is keen to show off its hypersonic technology. In the eyes of Beijing, this technology is related to whether one is evenly matched with the other party.

It is worth mentioning that so far, China has kept the details of the hypersonic missile test secret, only saying that this is a reusable spacecraft in routine tests.

Dr. Favaro analyzed that China has not denied the possession of hypersonic missiles before and has been very open about this technological capability. “Then the question is, why did they deny this test? Many analysts in the field of hypersonic technology said that they do not remember similar denials in China in the past. For this reason, this test is very eye-catching. Therefore, the important question to be asked in all discussions is: What exactly has China tested? What’s the point?”

This situation is unusual because it is not the way countries usually accumulate military hard power. On the surface, every country wants hypersonic weapons, but no one knows what they are for.

Dr. Favaro believes that what hypersonic weapons might be used for remains unclear. If the purpose is unknown, how to measure its efficacy?

In any case, the most concerned question is: Will this technology make us live in a more dangerous world?

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union signed a series of arms control agreements in order to avoid a nuclear conflict.

However, since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, some of these agreements have expired, some of the United States has announced its withdrawal, and the last agreement will also expire in 2026.

The United States and China have not signed any arms control agreements. The global security problem brought by hypersonic missiles is that it greatly increases the risk of confrontation.

Dr Cameron Tracy of the Centre for International Security and Cooperation (Stanford University) believes: “From past experience, there is quite clear evidence that When there is an arms race between countries, armed conflicts are more likely to occur in the near future. And we know that in countries like the United States and China, some people feel that they have actually moved in the direction of the conflict for a long time. For some time. Therefore, the current arms race is only part of the rapid development of a potential conflict. Once a conflict does occur, the actual possession of hypersonic weapons may not have much effect on the development of the entire situation.”

At present, although the new missile technology has intensified the existing tension between the United States and China, it has not pushed the two countries into conflict. However, there are potential factors for the situation to change.

Dr. Trichy analyzed that: “If these countries begin to deploy and locate hypersonic forces near each other’s borders, or pose a threat of force, then this may catalyze the occurrence of conflict. The act of assembling troops may itself be possible. Make opponents quite vigilant, if they are worried about being attacked at any time, they will be more willing to take the initiative to attack quickly. But this is not a problem of hypersonic technology, but more of an escalation of force.”

As mentioned earlier, the reason why China and Russia are working hard to develop hypersonic technology is because these two countries believe that the United States’ anti-missile capabilities are very powerful and cannot be breached. So, what if the United States is willing to actively weaken its capabilities? Assuming that the United States is willing to put these defense systems on the negotiating table and expresses its willingness to impose limits on its own missile defense system, would Russia and China also be willing to self-regulate and restrict the development of hypersonic weapons?

In Dr. Trichy’s view, this possibility is too small: “The United States has always been reluctant to put a missile defense system on the negotiating table. Therefore, although this assumption is likely to be fruitful, it is due to various political reasons. It is unlikely to happen, and this is related to the fact that the United States is really unwilling to negotiate on defense issues.”

So, where is the next step in the issue of hypersonic missiles this time?

Dr. Trichy’s expectation is that in the ongoing arms race, we will see the continued development of quite diverse hypersonic weapon systems. “Every country participating in the development of hypersonic technology wants to make sure that it has fully mastered the technology and can put it into use if necessary.，This will ensure that you are in an autonomous vantage point. “

“The arms race will continue because this is how the arms race works. I expect the arms race and the development of hypersonic weapons will continue for a long time in the future.”

However, any new technology will not be the final deciding factor.

The real decisive factor is whether the major powers are sincerely committed to avoiding the expansion of the situation and the outbreak of conflicts.