[The Epoch Times, December 01, 2022](Reported by Epoch Times reporter Hou Junlin, Taipei, Taiwan) The Chinese Academy of Economics announced on the 1st that Taiwan’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell by 1.5 percentage points to 43.9% in November, the fifth consecutive month Present crunch. Zhang Chuanzhang, president of the Chinese Academy of Economics, said that Taiwan’s economic climate can be said to be “cold outside and hot inside”. The manufacturing industry is shrinking clothes and dieting, waiting to bottom out. The slowdown promotes the continuous recovery of consumer demand.
According to the Chinese Academy of Economics, the manufacturing industry leads the index of new orders reflecting the dynamics of the economy, and has contracted for eight consecutive months, with the index falling slightly by 0.9 percentage points to 41.9%. It fell 0.5 percentage point to 25.3%.
As for Taiwan’s non-manufacturing managers’ index (NMI) in November, the Chinese Academy of Economics pointed out that it remained flat (50%) for only one month and then turned to expansion. The index rebounded by 2.2 percentage points to 52.2%, among which the NMI of the accommodation and catering industry expanded the fastest Faster, up to 62.5%, only the wholesale industry, which has a relatively high degree of linkage with the manufacturing industry, showed contraction, with a return NMI of 41.9%.
Zhang Chuanzhang said that although the industrial climate has not deteriorated significantly, it is expected that demand will not improve clearly before the first half of 2023. At the same time, countries around the world are adopting monetary tightening policies, and the manufacturing industry is shrinking. He said that raw materials, mature process chips, etc. are expected to fall in Q2 next year; manufacturers of consumer electronics, machine tools, etc. that need to be exported to Europe and the United States are relatively pessimistic, and may be expected to fall in the second half of next year.
He pointed out that due to the downstream manufacturers of the manufacturing industry or those who have no right to speak, they are facing great financial pressure, which is worthy of follow-up observation. However, in contrast to the domestic demand market, due to the slowdown of the epidemic, the demand for tourism and catering has gradually picked up, and the demand for domestic logistics and passenger transportation has continued to increase. It can be said that Taiwan’s economy is “cold on the outside and hot on the inside.”
The media asked about the outbreak of the “blank paper revolution” in China. Will the adherence to the zero-clearing policy affect Taiwan’s prosperity? In this regard, Zhang Chuanzhang believes that the white paper revolution will have some negative effects on Taiwanese businessmen in the short term, but now there is news that the Chinese government may slightly loosen the zero-clearing policy in order to curb this movement, and we need to wait and see the medium and long-term development.
In addition, S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P Global Market Intelligence) predicts that the global economic growth rate next year will be 1.5%, of which the US will be -0.2% and Europe will be -0.5%. Zhang Chuanzhang said that the downside risks of the global economy have increased significantly, which will definitely have a negative impact on my country’s exports, and the probability of stagnant inflation next year will be highest in Europe, which may further affect Taiwan’s export performance.
Editor in charge: Lu Meiqi