Consumption is driving the rebound
Private consumption is expected to rise further in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The recovery margins are wide: spending on services is still compressed; as well as car registrations, which are recovering, but partially compared to the collapse of 2020 (+ 12.8% until October, after -30.9%). A part of the extra savings accumulated in 2020 remains to be spent. Furthermore, consumer confidence in October-November decreased little, remaining high; and orders from consumer goods producers have recovered again. Conversely, high energy prices act as a brake.
The cost of energy penalizes Italian companies and families
It is energy prices that worry companies. The price of natural gas, which had remained low until the first months of 2021, gradually increased starting from May. Now it is the commodity that shows the greatest increase: + 430% over the course of this year, that is, the price has increased fivefold. The jump in the price of gas caused a strong spillover effect on oil, which rose from 75 to 84 dollars a barrel in October, after a quasi-stabilization that had lasted for several months.
Italian mix of gas-based energy sources
Among the main European countries, Italy is the one most exposed to the rise in natural gas prices. Our country’s energy mix favors this source: 42% of the total energy consumption in Italy in 2020 (plus 36% of oil), compared to 38% in the United Kingdom, far from 26% in Germany (which uses a lot of coal), 23% in Spain (which relies more on oil) and 17% in France (which relies on nuclear power; BP data). The significant level reached by renewables in Italy (sun, wind, etc.), equal to 11% of energy consumption, better than 8% in France, is not enough to contain the role of gas and oil. Other EU countries are further ahead in terms of renewables (Germany 18%, UK 17%, Spain 15%), with values that make them world leaders.
The energy bill paid by Italy is growing
To assess the impact of expensive energy, the high dependence of our country on foreign countries with regard to fossil fuels must also be considered. Although Italy is a non-negligible producer of oil and gas, 89% of oil, 94% of gas, 100% of coal are imported. On this front, we are in line with the other large EU countries: for gas, in Germany the dependence on foreign countries is 95%, in France it is 100%. Furthermore, high consumption and high dependence on foreign countries determine a huge energy bill paid every year by Italy. In 2020, net energy imports amounted to € 23.4 billion, of which 14.0 for oil and 8.9 for natural gas (UNEM data). In 2021, the jump in prices has certainly worsened it significantly. The worst year so far was 2012, at the height of the previous peak in commodity prices: the energy bill had reached 64.9 billion.