The new wave driven by the more contagious Delta variant (transmissibility is 40 to 60% higher than the Alpha) is causing an increase in infections and hospitalizations. In Italy, according to the latest rapid survey on ISS as of 20 July, the prevalence of the Delta variant was 94.8%, with values ranging between 80% and 100 percent between the individual regions. As is known, the new parameters adopted by the government at the end of July for the color changes of the regions mainly concern hospital admissions. The incidence of infections plays a limited role. But both parameters are still growing.
The new parameters
To decree the passage in the yellow area, in addition to the incidence between 50 and 150 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, it is necessary to exceed both 10% of the places occupied in the intensive care units and 15% in the other departments. At the moment, some Southern Regions in particular need to be monitored: Sardinia, Sicily e Calabria. It is no coincidence that all of them are further behind in vaccinations of the over 60s (the age group most at risk of hospitalization).
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Sicily, Sardinia and Calabria under observation
In particular in Sardinia (region with the highest incidence of infections: 134 weekly cases per 100 thousand inhabitants) Covid patients occupy the limit (10%) of places in intensive care, while the hospitalization rate (5%) in ordinary wards is under control for now . In Sicily (95 new positives per 100 thousand inhabitants) worries more about the situation in the latter (11% of beds) and less about resuscitation (4 per cent). There Calabria (still below the threshold of 50 weekly infections) instead records 3% in intensive care and 9% in the non-critical area.
Regions all still below the threshold
If the monitoring of the control room does not change during construction, no Region will go into the yellow zone at least until August 15th. Up to now, in fact, the occupancy of beds recorded on Tuesday has been used to decide the color from the following Monday. And no region exceeds the thresholds. Not only. The trend of hospitalizations is increasing, but not such as to make us imagine an overrun of the thresholds, not even in the most “problematic” regions.
The differences between white and yellow zone
It should also be stressed that the transition to the yellow zone would not lead to new closures. And that in the latter there are not many more restrictions than in the white band. The main ones are the obligation to wear a mask outdoors, the limit of four people at the table in restaurants, unless they are all cohabitants. And a smaller capacity for outdoor shows and sports facilities. In fact, in the white zone there is no numerical limit of capacity for concerts, cinemas, theatrical performances or stadiums. It is sufficient that the capacity does not exceed 50% of the maximum authorized outdoors and 25% indoors. In the yellow zone, on the other hand, there is a fixed limit. Maximum 2,500 outdoors and 1,000 indoors. It means that in the white zone in a stadium of 60 thousand people, 30 thousand can enter. In the yellow zone only 2,500.