Italy is virtually in the white zone. The national incidence, with today’s data on infections, has dropped to 49 cases per hundred thousand inhabitants, just below the fateful threshold of 50 cases per hundred thousand, the quota below which it is possible, according to the Ministry of Health and ISS, to resume a full tracing activity abandoning most of the containment measures. In summary, the threshold of the white zone.
The parameter, as known, is applied on a regional basis, but exceeding the psychological threshold at the national level is still a watershed: just think that the last time with an incidence below the threshold dates back to 11 October 2020, over 7 months does. At the time, however, it was in full ascent, with an increase rate of almost 100% weekly, while today, after two terrible waves with peaks in November (with an incidence jumped to 414 per hundred thousand) and in March (267), we are in a decline which is close to 30% weekly.
Therefore, a blank June is looming for more than half of the peninsula at least, with regions such as Lombardy, Veneto, Lazio, Emilia Romagna that have great chances of promotion. The wait is now for monitoring on Friday and for the next ones: the rule in fact provides that there are three consecutive monitoring with an incidence below 50 (and low risk) to allow a region to gain the coveted white zone, where to avoid of further changes, which the Regions are discussing, there is no curfew, everything is open, only the obligation to wear masks and the anti-crowding measures that individual governors can take would remain.
The first three safe Regions of immediate promotion are Sardinia (the first and only so far to have experienced the white zone), for three weeks with very low numbers and an incidence dropped to 14 cases per hundred thousand; Friuli Venezia Giulia, with an incidence of 18 cases; and Molise, with just 11 cases per hundred thousand. From the beginning of next week they will end up blank. Abruzzo (current incidence 34), Liguria (31), Umbria (31) and Veneto (31) will have to wait another seven days to complete the three consecutive weeks: for them the date to be marked on the calendar is the 7 June.
The following week, at least three other weight regions are nominated, which will probably begin with the monitoring of the day after tomorrow (which will certify the descent below 50) their countdown: Lombardy (current incidence 48), Lazio (49.6) and Emilia Romagna (49.6), with some residual hope for Piedmont (incidence at 51.5, but monitoring will consider tomorrow’s data) and for Puglia (51.8).