Data on hospitalizations: increasing even if growth is slow

Even if for now there are no reasons for alarm, the sharp increase in cases is beginning to give thoughts on the reflection, in perspective, in hospitalizations. According to the photo of the epidemiological trend of Gimbe, the week 14-20 July, compared to the previous one, showed an increase of 115.7% in new infections, i.e. 19,390 compared to 8,989. This surge in new cases goes hand in hand with a reversal of the trend on the hospital front: hospitalizations with symptoms were 1,194 compared to 1,128, equal to +5.9, and intensive care 165 compared to 157, equal to +5 , 1%. Positive cases grow after months of decrease (49,310 compared to 40,649) while deaths are still decreasing (76 compared to 104, equal to -26.9%). According to the numbers provided by the Ministry of Health, in Italy there are 158 patients hospitalized in intensive care for Covid, in the balance between income and expenses.

Two Regions over 3% intensive

Hospitalizations for Covid-19 both in the medical area and in intensive care (new indicator) at national level are 2.1% and 2% respectively. Far from the yellow zone thresholds of 15 and 10 percent. But some regions are already over 5% for employment in the medical area: Calabria 5.7% and Sicily 5.2%, followed by Campania with 4.8% and Basilicata 4.7%. For the intensive, Tuscany is 3.4%, Sicily 3.3% and Lazio 3%. By incidence of cases, Sardinia is in the lead with 82.8 per 100 thousand inhabitants. Another 3 above the threshold of 50: Veneto (68.9); Lazio (68.8); Sicily (64.9). This is what emerges from the weekly monitoring by Iss-Ministry of Health under examination by the control room. The hospitalization data refer to July 20, while the incidence is over 7 days for the period July 16-22. With regard to the incidence, the figure for Sardinia went from 8.6 per 100 thousand inhabitants in the period 2-8 July to 33.2 in the week 9-15 July up to this last of 82.8.

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Salmaso: in 4-8 weeks it is possible to double hospitalizations

At present, the infections from Covid-19 are experiencing a trend of constant and sudden growth. And “if the infections double every week, after four to eight we also see a doubling of hospitalizations”, according to epidemiologist Stefania Salmaso. “When cases grow very rapidly, a small proportion of them go to hospital and have significant negative effects,” and this despite the proportion of the population vaccinated. And “when a critical threshold for hospitalizations is reached, it is too late”, he warns, and “there is no time to go back if measures are taken only at that moment”.

Cauda: more people in home isolation

An invitation to read the data taking into account all the available indicators comes from Roberto Cauda, ​​director of the Infectious Diseases Unit of the Gemelli-Irccs Polyclinic in Rome. With the old parameters, some Regions that register an increasing number of infections would have risked leaving the white zone, “but the reality is that the current epidemiological situation has changed”. For example, in the case of Lazio, “it is true that it has had a sudden increase in cases, but it is nevertheless a Region with a consistent number of vaccinated people. So any decision will have to take this factor into account ». Therefore “there is certainly a high number of infected people, especially among young people, but what emerges in particular is that people are growing up in home isolation. In other words, even young people risk ending up in hospital but to a much lesser extent than those over 60 ».