Leap forward for incidence and RT which this week stood at 58 and 1.57 respectively. The two values, which mark the circulation of the virus and the replicability of the infection, are over the threshold of 50×100 thousand for the first and over 1.50 for the second.
Last week they stood at 41 and 1.26 respectively. Two parameters which, together with the new values launched by the government on the percentage of saturation of medical areas and intensive care areas, determine the change in the range of the regions and the related restrictions.
The Delta pushes infections and deaths. “The fourth wave has already begun”
by Elena Dusi
Prevailing Delta variant
It is necessary to accelerate the times to reach a high vaccination coverage and the completion of vaccination cycles to prevent further recurrences of episodes of increased circulation of the virus supported by the variants. Highlight the draft monitoring. The circulation of the Delta variant is increasing in Italy and is now prevalent. This, it is noted, has led to an increase in cases in countries with high vaccination coverage, therefore a detailed tracking and sequencing of cases is advisable.
Vaccine, Crisanti: “Third dose? In a month we will understand from the data”. Rezza: “Still undecided, but probable for the most fragile”
20 Moderate risk regions
There are 20 – compared to 19 last week – the Regions and Autonomous Provinces classified at moderate risk and one (Molise) at low risk this week. Seventeen regions and autonomous provinces report resilience alerts. None reports multiple resilience alerts.
Hospitalizations on the rise but below the critical threshold
No Region and Autonomous Province exceeds the critical occupancy threshold for beds in the intensive care or medical area, but hospitalizations are increasing. The intensive employment rate is stable at 2%, with a slight increase in the number of hospitalized people from 165 (20/07/2021) to 189 (27/07/2021). The employment rate in national medical areas increased to 3% from 2% last week. The number of hospitalized in these areas is increasing from 1,194 to 1,611.
Cases not associated with chains of transmission are doubling
The number of new cases not associated with transmission chains doubles (10,076 vs 4,997 the previous week). The percentage of cases detected through contact tracing activity drops further (28% vs 30% last week). Instead, the percentage of cases detected increases through the appearance of symptoms (46% vs 44%). Finally, 26% were diagnosed through screening activities.
Rt towards stabilization
“The occupancy of hospital beds marks a growth but contained while the incidence in many areas is over 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, which is critical for tracking. Furthermore, the RT projected for next week shows a stabilization: it is a fact to be confirmed but we are still above the epidemic threshold, and hospital Rt is growing. We are in a phase in which we must move with great prudence “, said the president of the Higher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, at the press conference on data analysis of the Regional Monitoring of the Control Room.
Average age of the infected: 27 years
“The incidence is growing in many European countries, also in Italy. With us, in all regions, there is a growth in the number of new cases. The municipalities with at least one new case in the last two weeks have risen from 2,958 to 3,845. Almost 900 more municipalities, which testifies to the circulation of the virus. In the last week all regions have been characterized by growth “, he continued. “The average age of those who contract
the infection is 27 years old and the majority of the cases that develop are indigenous, ie they are generated in the same region “, 49 is the average age for hospitalization and 63 for those entering intensive care. the majority of cases now develop in an autochthonous way and develop within the same region.
94% Delta variant
“The prevalence of the variants shows how the delta is now dominated in Italy, the (Brazilian) range is instead contained and the alpha variant is in decline”. In Italy, as of July 20, the prevalence of the so-called ‘delta variant’ of sars-cov-2 was 94.8%, a sharp increase compared to the survey of June 22, with values ranging between the individual regions between 80% and 100%. At the same date, the ‘alpha’ variant had a prevalence of 3.2% (with a range between 0 and 14.7%), while the ‘Brazilian’ variant was 1.4% (0-16, 7%). The estimate comes from the new rapid survey conducted by the ISS-Ministry of Health together with the regional laboratories and the Bruno Kessler foundation. “The rapid spread of the delta variant, now predominant, is an expected and consistent data with European data, which must be monitored with great attention” says Brusaferro. “It is essential to continue the systematic tracking of cases to identify outbreaks, and to complete the vaccination course as quickly as possible, since this guarantees the best protection.”
The colors of the regions
Silvio Brusaferro and Gianni Rezza then explained that “today it is difficult to make predictions but with the additional data on RT next week we will be able to have a more defined picture”, pointing out that “our behavior, however, is decisive”.
Young people and the vaccination campaign
Rezza then pointed out that at the moment “there is a strong adhesion to the vaccination campaign by children and it is a very important fact. It is, in fact, the children who drive the infection the most”.
Third dose
The debate on a possible third dose of the vaccine has opened in recent days. A theme on which
the scientists are divided but a decision, announced the Director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health Gianni Rezza, will be taken within a month explaining: “It is not yet known whether in the case of
third dose it will be necessary to carry it out with a vaccine adapted to the variants. In fact, companies are working on adapted vaccines. At the moment we keep the options open and the decisions taken by the EU also look at the two alternatives so as not to remain uncovered. If we were vaccinated today we would use the existing vaccines but it will be necessary to assess whether adapted vaccines will be needed in a few months “.
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