What were the voting flows between the administrative offices of 3 and 4 October and the previous elections, i.e. the 2019 European elections? The Cattaneo Institute studied the movement of consensus, which analyzed the dynamics of votes in the cities of Turin and Naples.
So the center left won in Turin
The advantage of Lo Russo in Turin is “explainable” mainly with this dynamic: the center-right was unable to keep its ranks tight and had losses of a certain weight towards abstention. The Northern League’s electoral basin, according to Cattaneo’s estimates, is the main culprit for these losses.
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The advantage of the center-left candidate therefore seems to be determined by the fact that he has managed to limit his losses towards abstention and by having recovered something from the electoral basin of the M5s. On the contrary, the original basin of the center-right has had more substantial losses towards abstention and has not recovered anything from the M5s.
The center-left recovers from M5S and center-right
Let’s look at these movements in detail. As for the flows for the Center-left candidate, Lo Russo, the estimates say that a large part of the electoral basin that the Democratic Party had created at the European Championships two years ago has converged on him. To be precise, if the Democratic Party in the European Union had an electoral strength (calculated on those entitled to vote) of 19.8%, we see that 16.4% voted Lo Russo. The loss to abstention was minimal (0.9%). There was, however, a non-negligible loss – 1.7% – which made the leap towards the center-right candidate, but Lo Russo managed to compensate for it with the entry of a quota (1.1%) of voters who M5s and a small share (0.9%) of voters who voted Lega in 2019 voted in the European elections.
On the side of Damilano, that is to say the candidate of the Center-right, the situation is a bit different, because the losses towards abstention appear more substantial. In particular, it was the electorate of the League that “betrayed” the Center-right candidate: the estimates of the flows show a consistent loss towards abstention (4.2% of those entitled) and minor losses towards the M5s and towards the center-left candidate. Losses due to abstention from the FI and FdI basin are more limited, but not negligible.