Josep Borrell Fontelles (Alto rappresetnane dell’UE per la politica estera e di sicurezza, EEAS) © UE
The European Union’s unarmed civilian monitoring mission (EUMA) in Armenia started monitoring the border with Azerbaijan a few days ago. Its task is to create a more favorable environment for negotiations between Yerevan and Baku
As planned, the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) began monitoring the country’s fragile border with neighboring Azerbaijan on 20 February with the opening of its headquarters in the southern city of Yeghegnadzor. The monitoring – carried out by civilians – will be carried out by personnel seconded from various EU member states including France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden.
“EUMA’s exclusively civilian staff will number around 100 in total, including around 50 unarmed observers”, announced the European Council of the European Union in a statement on Monday 20 February. The mission immediately started its border monitoring work.
“EUMA will contribute to the security of the population, build confidence on the ground and support the EU’s efforts in the Armenian-Azerbaijan peace process”, he said. tweeted the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell.
EUMA will continue the work of a previous 40-person two-month European Union monitoring mission (EUMCAP) to Armenia in an expanded, two-yearly form. “It will contribute to stability and peace in the region,” he said announced Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s office after a meeting with Stefano Tomat, Civilian Operations Commander of the European External Action Service (EEAS).
However, despite the precedent, some Armenian media have reported the news inaccurately, even going as far as to state that, while 50 of the 100 personnel will be “unarmed observers”, the remaining 50 may be carrying weapons. Other reports incorrectly spoke of 100 observers and not 50, while yet another even referred to EUMA as the “European Union land force”.
None of these statements were correct, however, and all were potentially harmful to the mission before it had even been operational for a full day. In all honesty, the misunderstanding could be related to the presence of gendarmes and police officers seconded from France and Germany, highlighting how it will not be easy for the EU to manage local expectations for the mission.
“As observers they are no longer policemen, although in the case of EUMM Georgia some seconded policemen have decided to wear their uniforms. But they are always unarmed,” explains Tobias Pietz, Deputy Chief Analyst at the Center for International Peace Operations (ZIF), a German government agency that will also staff EUMA.
However, this confusion could have been avoided at the most since – as pointed out by Tobias Pietz himself – in the Caucasus since the end of 2008 the EU has also been running another unarmed civilian mission of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) in the region, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM), which monitors Georgia’s administrative borders (ABL) with the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia following the August 2008 war with Russia.
EUMA’s head of mission will be another police officer, Markus Ritter, head of the German Federal Police headquarters in Stuttgart and former head of the European Union Advisory Mission (EUAM) in Iraq. The mission will only patrol along Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. It will not be able to monitor within the territory of Azerbaijan, including Karabakh.
However, concerns have been raised in Baku.
“Unlike the previous interim version of the mission, there is no clear peace agenda and no coordination with Azerbaijan,” says research center analyst Topchubashov Mahammad Mammadov. “It could damage the EU’s image as an equidistant intermediary in the region and Baku is very concerned about losing the EU’s mediation channel, which is the preferred choice for a variety of reasons.”
“If you send a mission only from the Armenian side without the consent of Baku, you could create the wrong impression. Baku may see it as a sign of hostility,” the International Crisis Group reported quoting an unnamed EU official. “The deployment of the EU mission in Armenia should take into account the legitimate interests of Azerbaijan and its activities […] they shouldn’t undermine mutual trust,” he said in a statement communicated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.
Concerns have also been raised by Armenian analysts: the director of the Center for Strategic Political and Economic Studies in Yerevan, Benyamin Poghosyan, warned that deploying EUMA on the ground cannot rule out new violence, but simply reduces the risk of it happening. . Furthermore, he stated publicly, Armenia should not consider EUMA as an excuse to delay the progress of the negotiations.
“Some circles in Armenia believe that the EU sent observers to Armenia only to deter future possible Azerbaijani aggression, play the role of a buffer and provide Armenia with the time it needs to increase its military capabilities and be able to repel future aggression Azerbaijani on its own […] The EU sees the potential deployment of a new observation mission from a different angle,” he said written Poghosyan in January. “It only makes sense if Armenia and Azerbaijan are engaged in serious peace negotiations in which the EU plays a significant role.”
Russia has also expressed concern about the presence of a new security actor in the region, and particularly on the soil of its traditional ally.
“We see in these attempts a purely geopolitical background that is far from the interests of a real normalization of relations in the Transcaucasus,” said Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry. “Everything is being done to oust Russia from the region and undermine its historical role as the main guarantor of security,” she accused.
Perhaps in response, the following day, a senior government lawmaker, Hayk Konjoryan, told RFE/RL’s Yerevan office that Armenia would also be ready to accept a Collective Security Treaty Organization monitoring mission ( CSTO) led by Moscow. However, he added, this could only happen if the CSTO clearly defines where Armenia’s borders are, which was the initial reason Pashinyan refused such a mission. earlier this month .
Such concerns are likely to be raised again by both Baku and Moscow during EUMA’s two-year mandate.
“Observers should pay attention to the other major player in the region, Russia, which has border guards and military along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan,” he said. written International Crisis Group senior analyst Olesya Vartanyan for the magazine International Politics and Society della Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
“The EU should provide its mission with the tools to facilitate dialogue between the Armenian army and Azerbaijan and border guards stationed along the border if this can help prevent or mitigate the violence,” he further noted, perhaps referring to something like the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) that the EUMM has set up on ABLs (Administrative Boundaries) in Georgia.
While there are few other details available about EUMA, the European Union does indeed see the mission as a tool to create a more favorable environment for negotiations between Yerevan and Baku. Indeed, that had also been the purpose of the previous EUMCAP mission, including in assisting the task of demarcation and delimitation of borders.
It is also this last possibility, and what appears to be an implicit attempt to override the details of the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire and subsequent declarations, that has bothered Moscow.
“Implementing the agreements is the most direct way to improve the situation in the region,” he said stated Zakharova, “including such steps as the unblocking of transport communications, the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the establishment of contacts between the public, experts, religious circles and parliamentarians of the two countries, as well as negotiations for the elaboration of a peace treaty ”.
It is too early to tell how successful EUMA will be, but many analysts believe it could contribute to peace and stability on the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. Some like Poghosyan, however, warn that, if not accompanied by a genuine revival of the Brussels Process, such efforts could even lead to an increase in regional rivalry in the South Caucasus.
However, there are some hopeful signs. Despite the abrupt cancellation of a December 7 meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan with European Council President Charles Michel in Brussels, the EU’s negotiating process does not appear to have stopped.
“We have repeatedly reaffirmed our commitment to the peace process, especially the Brussels process,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said during a session at the Munich Security Conference Feb. 18. “Yesterday during a meeting with the President of the European Council Charles Michel [e] today during a meeting with Secretary of State Blinken”.
During the conference, incidentally, Aliyev had met Michel to discuss the new EU mission in Armenia, although no other details are known. On 25 February, the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus announced new efforts to revitalize the Brussels process in an interview, although the date of a possible meeting between Michel, Aliyev and Pashinyan is yet to be determined.
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