International crises (and the one on the border between Poland and Belarus certainly is) can have two objectives: to test the opponent or try to obtain a concrete result.
In the case of Belarus’s attempt to provoke migratory fever in some EU states – Lithuania, Estonia and now Poland – it is still unclear what the ultimate goal is.
Does the Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko really think he can force Europeans to lift the sanctions imposed on his country? Or is it merely subjecting the Union to a geopolitical test to assess its unity, defense capabilities and the state of public opinion on the sensitive issue of migrants?
Whatever Lukashenko’s real intentions may be (and the degree of involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin, an increasingly indispensable ally of the Minsk regime), Europeans know they are at stake for their credibility, and must act accordingly.
So far the European Union has managed to avoid the trap of divisions (into which it had fallen during the 2015 migration crisis) and this despite the more than justified criticism of Polish intransigence in the face of what is clearly also a humanitarian crisis.
In a few days, European pressures managed to downsize the air bridge created between various capitals of the Middle East and Belarus, where migrants arrived paying a few thousand euros driven by the promise of easy entry into Europe.
Poland’s choice of field
On the evening of November 16, the foreign and defense ministers of the 27 will meet in Brussels. The meeting had been scheduled for some time, but it will certainly be dominated by this crisis. The Europeans will develop new sanctions, not so much to have an immediate impact but to make Lukashenko understand that his blackmail will not work.
The story, however, will not end here, because at this point an internationalization of the crisis appears inevitable.
The three countries involved – Lithuania, Estonia and Poland – would like to invoke Article 4 of the NATO charter, according to which it is necessary to start consultations between member countries “whenever territorial integrity, political independence or security ”Of any of them are threatened.
It was the Polish prime minister who announced this on November 15, relying on American “life insurance” over Putin. Nobody doubts that the French and the European Commission would have preferred to manage the crisis at the level of the 27, but we know Poland’s distrust of Brussels.
Lukashenko, for his part, is calling for the deployment at the border of Russian missiles capable of striking 500 kilometers away. A request that does not appear credible, like the threat on the gas supply.
The reason would push towards an easing of tension, as the brokerage offer presented on November 15 by Putin seems to indicate. But at the same time, Russia is amassing soldiers on the border with Ukraine, causing great concern.
Regardless of the reasons, it is clear that this crisis at the Union’s borders will not be the last of its kind: the 27 know it well, and are preparing to meet in Brussels knowing that they absolutely must obtain a result.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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