[Epoch Times October 07, 2021](English Epoch Times columnists Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen/Compiled by John Wu) Can the United States save Taiwan from the CCP and win the war? The answer is not based on a series of war games simulated by the Pentagon. In order to figure out what would happen if American troops were dispatched to defend Taiwan, the Pentagon had set the tone that the United States might be defeated and would definitely suffer serious damage to personnel and equipment.
U.S. aircraft carriers are usually considered to play a vital role in supporting Taiwan. However, some military strategists believe that aircraft carriers are vulnerable to CCP’s missile attacks today and may be destroyed from a long distance. Maybe As far as 1,000 miles or more.
However, it is not.
In 1996, the CCP conducted a large-scale missile “exercise” and began to gather troops. The “exercise” was actually used as a cover for its invasion of Taiwan.
Those who were in Taipei together at the time included Stephen Bryen, a former senior U.S. Department of Defense official, and R. James Woolsey, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency in the early Clinton administration, and four years ago Admiral Leon “Bud” Edney, who served as the Deputy Secretary of Naval Operations. They immediately felt the atmosphere of fear and anxiety, which quickly spread across Taiwan.
They wanted to know how Washington would respond, so the three called separately, calling on the Pentagon and the White House to take action. Prior to that, President Bill Clinton and the National Security Council had been reluctant to respond, mainly because they wanted to improve relations with the Chinese Communist Party and expand mutually beneficial trade. But as the danger approached and intensified, and the situation was approaching a critical moment, Clinton finally decided to send two aircraft carrier task forces.
As the aircraft carrier headed for Taiwan, the CCP flinched. Although we don’t know the details, the CCP is likely to estimate that the invasion will fail in the confrontation with the United States, especially after the battle with the fighter planes on the aircraft carrier. In any case, if the CCP wanted the army to land in Taiwan, the CCP lacked the landing ships they needed. If they replaced them with merchant ships, they would be easily sunk by American warplanes.
Moreover, judging from the situation at the time, the CCP understood that to win Taiwan, it would need to greatly increase the strength of the navy and air force, obtain defensible landing ships, and find a way to defeat the US aircraft carrier. China has spent 25 years to solve these problems, and through the construction of very advanced fighters (including the hidden J-20) and nuclear bombers, landing ships, etc.; for example, it can carry troops, helicopters, armored vehicles and “carrier killers.” The missile’s Type 075 Yushen Class (Type 075 Yushen Class) large deck amphibious assault ship.
This amphibious assault ship is equipped with the “Carrier Killer” missile Dongfeng-21D, a two-stage solid-fuel anti-ship missile with a range of 900 miles or more. The assault ship can navigate to the set target through satellites and drones. And it is said that it is equipped with a maneuverable (warhead) reentry vehicle, making it difficult to lose. In future versions of the Dongfeng-21D missile, there may also be “multi-target reentry vehicles” (MIRVs, also known as split-guided multiple warheads), which will increase the lethality of the Dongfeng-21D and make it more difficult to be attacked. Countermeasures.
The United States is deploying Aegis cruisers and new intercept missiles, such as SM-3 (RIM-161 standard three-range missile) and SM-6 (RIM-174 standard long-range active missile), and has improved the function of Aegis radar. These newer systems are usually carried in the aircraft carrier task force, and may be sufficient to prevent the attack of the Dongfeng-21D missile, but whether it can prevent its continuous attack is still unconfirmed.
On the one hand, the CCP is preparing, on the other hand, it is also watching the United States. It is still unclear when and what strategy the CCP will use to reach the conclusion that it can successfully defeat the US aircraft carrier. And unfortunately, the same is true for the United States: it is still unclear whether the United States can prevent the CCP’s anti-aircraft missile attack, and it may not really know the result until it occurs.
But even if the aircraft carrier can withstand attacks, the PLA Air Force’s capabilities are far stronger than it was 25 years ago. The CCP is working hard to improve the stealth capability of its fighters to match the American F-22 Raptor stealth fighters. The F-35 fighter is more like a tactical aircraft, and its stealth is not as good as the F-22.
Unlike the United States, China is not a democratic country with freedom of the press and social media. If the CCP’s staff and strategists are willing to lose 400 planes and dozens of ships as a condition for successfully defeating the United States, they will take this part into consideration.
However, when the President of the United States asked the staff of the Pentagon about what might happen if we support Taiwan, the President may receive some bad news due to serious domestic resistance. He may be told that an aircraft carrier may be destroyed, or we may lose 50 to 75 fighters, which means that the president must consider thousands of casualties and billions of hardware losses, and The possibility of a public response.
In fact, to a large extent, this depends on the courage, political considerations and moral sense of the president. But Washington’s instinct is likely to be an eager attempt to push Taiwan to negotiate with China, and it will eventually end in Taiwan becoming part of China. In fact, this is surrender. This of course allows the United States to get out of its predicament, but it will be a terrible warning to our friends in Asia that the sky is indeed going to fall, and there is no hope or help from the Americans.
Therefore, unless another brand new strategic formula is found.
The appeasement policy will eventually lead to a world war. Undoubtedly, it is hard to believe that the CCP will be satisfied after swallowing Taiwan. In addition, it should not be forgotten that China has an irresistible anger towards Japan because of what the Japanese military did to China in the 1930s and 1940s—the massacre of millions of Chinese people, and Japan’s treatment of civilians, mainly The Chinese launched a bacterial and chemical war.
The Nanjing Massacre of 1937-38, which may have killed as many as 300,000 Chinese people, is one of the many unrevened atrocities in China’s memory. Once the CCP drives out the Americans, Japan is the next target, and Japan knows this too. This is why Japan calls the possible invasion of Taiwan an “existential threat.”
Today, allies in the Pacific can only use a brand new strategy to prevent the CCP from attacking Taiwan. Instead of relying on a distant aircraft carrier, waiting for the CCP to cause trouble, or provoking to cause conflict, we now need to take steps to change the rules of the game by strengthening Taiwan.
The best and fastest way is to establish a single “Taiwan Military Command” (Taiwan Military Command) including Japan, the United States and Taiwan. The United States currently lacks a coordinated command mechanism with Taiwan or Japan. The current US approach is to do it on its own, but this will no longer be feasible. Japan has F-35 and F-15, a small but sophisticated navy, and an excellent group of submarines. Taiwan has modernized the F-16 and CK-F-1 domestically produced Jingguo fighters. All of these must be used to stop the CCP, and they need to cooperate with each other. For example, we must coordinate the “Family Recognition” (IFF) system in order to be able to effectively fight the enemy instead of attacking each other.
This unique command structure will let the CCP know that the problems it will face are far greater than those of Taiwan alone, because the United States, Japan, and Taiwan can communicate with each other from multiple bases in Taiwan, Okinawa, and Japan. support. Faced with such challenges, the CCP cannot count on its strategy of isolating Taiwan first and then scaring away the Americans.
In addition, when confronted with conflict, the air force and naval bases, especially the air force and naval bases of Japan and Okinawa (including the joint bases of the United States, Japan, and the United States and Japan), should be available for use by the Taiwan Air Force and Navy. This has changed the rules of the game in two ways: First, Taiwan can operate from bases outside the island, which means that the CCP’s attack on Taiwan cannot guarantee its victory; Second, the CCP will face multiple bases and allies. The threat posed by influential and coordinated sea and air forces.
The new defense strategy of “multiple bases,” “mutual support systems,” and the only “common military command” outside Taiwan’s main island can crush the CCP’s plan to invade Taiwan.
At this moment, the Pentagon should simulate a new combat plan, using the only “military command”, “multiple bases” and “mutual support system” mentioned earlier to prevent the CCP from invading Taiwan. In view of the above suggestions and the potential to change the rules of the game, the CCP will realize that it will be contained, just as NATO successfully contained the Soviet Union in 1949, until the Soviet Union collapsed instantly in 1991.
The current U.S. government needs to change its global policy of retreat and appeasement, so as not to eventually lead to war. Be sure to adopt a new strategy to deal with the CCP before it is too late.
The original text, A New Way to Defend Taiwan, was published in the English “Epoch Times”.
About the Author:
Dr. Stephen Bryen, recognized as a thought leader in technology security policy, has twice been awarded the Department of Defense’s highest civilian honor-the Distinguished Public Service Medal. His latest book is “Technology Security and National Power: Winners and Losers” (Technology Security and National Power: Winners and Losers).
Shoshana Bryen is the senior director of the Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC.
This article only represents the author’s personal views and does not necessarily reflect the position of The Epoch Times.
Editor in charge: Gao Jing#