In Western Europe we have a tendency to see central Europe as one, a region condemned to live in “illiberal democracies” that have turned their backs on the values on which the European Union (EU) should be based. But this is a reductive thesis, because the countries that make up this region are crossed by contrasting currents. And for some, the time has come to make decisive choices.
Two of these countries, the Czech Republic and Poland, are currently in the balance, and part of the future of the EU is tied to the turn of things within them. In the Czech Republic, the surprise electoral defeat of the prime minister, populist Andrej Babiš, was followed by the hospitalization in serious condition of President Miloš Zeman, not exactly a liberal. At this point, the uncertainty in the country is total.
In Poland the situation is completely different. The decision of the constitutional court not to recognize the primacy of EU laws over national ones has opened a crisis with Brussels, because it calls into question the basic principle that guarantees equality between member states. If confirmed, the decision risks provoking a “Polexit”, that is, Poland’s exit from the European Union. In short, the stakes are considerable.
Support for the EU
Led by Eurosceptic parties, both countries belong (with Hungary and Slovakia) to the so-called Visegrád group, which is holding back on European integration. But within these states there are also pro-European currents.
In the Czech Republic, two center-right and liberal coalitions, in favor of European integration, are claiming electoral victory and the right to form the next government together. On 11 October, the outgoing prime minister is expected to meet the president in hospital. Many suspect that he may implement a maneuver to remain in power.
In Poland, the reactions to the decision of the constitutional court, clearly influenced by the populist party in power (Pis, Law and Justice), aroused strong reactions. On the evening of 10 October, thousands of demonstrators gathered waving European flags, while 26 former constitutional court judges declared that the decision goes beyond the prerogatives of the high court. The independence of justice is one of the major issues in the dispute between Warsaw and Brussels.
In a recent poll, 80% of Poles said they were in favor of the country’s stay in the Union. So if Warsaw left the European club it would be paradoxical, because the situation is very different from Brexit, voted on by the population in a referendum.
In any case, the accumulation of points of conflict between Poland and the rules of the Union – from justice to the independence of the media, from homosexual rights to abortion – creates an increasingly serious climate of rupture. The Polish government is perfectly aware that it has a lot to lose. In fact, the funds of the European recovery plan that are due to Warsaw are currently blocked due to the tension between Brussels and Warsaw.
The arm wrestling risks getting worse. The liberal opposition is now led by the former president of the European council and former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, who would like to regain the majority in the next legislative elections, scheduled for 2023. These events will have a strong impact on the physiognomy of tomorrow’s Europe . “Illiberal democracy” is not a fatality.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
.